Week 16 was a loser for me, going 2-3 (the Saints defense killed me in allowing that last Carolina TD drive), and I stayed off the craziness of Week 17-- the last few weeks of the season were not particularly good for me, and rather than chase and give up more money, I elected to sit on my winnings and be happy with a winning season. Looking back on the regular season, I went 27 - 18, for +7.2 units, with a winning percentage of 60%. Not a super stellar year, but winning is winning.
I love the playoffs, but very rarely bet them. I'm happy with the amount I've won for this season, so I'll just be enjoying the playoffs as a fan. Of course, I will still be looking at the lines. As such, I think it's really interesting that the line on the KC - Indy game has moved all the way from Colts -2.5 to KC -1.5. That's a pretty big swing. I think the money is probably moving in the right way, as KC is getting some players back that will improve their ability to get after Luck (look for Luck to be pressured WAY more than in the Week 16 match-up). I still wouldn't trust real money on a Chiefs team that can be pretty inconsistent, and a Colts team that can beat the best (Seattle, Denver, SF, KC) and lose big as well (St. Louis, Arizona, etc.), is a tough sell, too. If I had to pick one side or total off the whole board, I'd probably take the under in this game.
All season we heard how bad the NFC East is and now that the Eagles finally won the war of attrition, they are -3 with the Saints visiting? We are taking this "Saints-can't-win-on-the-road" thing too seriously, perhaps? Or are the Eagles peaking at the right time? I'm really looking forward to this game, as I love watching horrible weather playoff football. I don't know which way to lean, though I'd give a slight edge to NO-- taking Brees with points is usually a good play.
The 49ers' ability to deal with the weather is another hot topic, even though they are posted as 3-point favorites on the road in Green Bay. Much has been made of the return of Aaron Rodgers, but the real story here is, I think, still that the Packer's D sucks. Bad. I don't think that, even with Cobb and Rodgers back, the Pack can score enough against the SF D to edge them out.
The Chargers shouldn't even be in the playoffs, and they shouldn't beat the Bengals, but it wouldn't surprise me. It's hard for teams to beat the same team twice in a season, though, and the Bengals are really good at screwing up a good thing. Still, I expect the Bengals to win, since they have the far superior D, but it is the playoffs.... just about anything can happen (which is why I tend not to bet on them).
NFL 2013 Season Total: 27 - 18, +7.2 units, 60% win %.
