Sunday, October 25, 2015
Thursday, October 22, 2015
Quick Thursday Pick
Haven't had time to get write ups and picks up yet; I am on SF +6.5, though. I wanted to get that up before kick off. 49ers +6.5!
Tuesday, October 13, 2015
Week 6 Picks
There are a lot of tight games on the board this week, and some that are decent plays. Injuries mar a lot of potential plays, though.
A lot of people are jumping all over Atlanta, though Julio Jones is still questionable. They look attractive-- decent spot, coming off a game they were in severe danger of losing and pulling it out at the end (a gut-check, wake-up call type game), playing a 1-4 Saints team with little left to play for... and only 3 or 3 1/2 points! This has trap game written all over it-- divisional game, on the road, against your rival. I'll stay away, as I have been burned by the Saints already, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Saints cover and/or win the game outright.
Cincinnati and Buffalo opened at a PK, but the line has swung 3 1/2 points. I don't have a good feel for this game, and I think the Buffalo D might be the best defense they've seen thus far. The other game that looks dangerous is the Chargers at Green Bay. San Diego just got kicked in the teeth by the Steelers on national TV and are in danger of losing their season. A loss at Green Bay would pretty much end any post-season hopes. I don't like picking against desperate teams as heavy dogs-- from a football perspective, Rodgers should carve them up good. From a statistical and historical perspective, these are usually bad plays on the favorite. I'll just lay off and see what happens.
I do like a total, however-- Chicago and Detroit. Both have rotten defenses, and Cutler can put up points. Paired with the fact that Stafford just might sling it around as many times as Cutler, I like the offenses to have a field day against some weak competition on both sides. Both teams aren't going anywhere, so a shootout sounds like fun. Chicago-Detroit OVER 43.
The Denver Broncos-- powered by a better defense and lacking the explosive offensive plays of the past few years-- are still undefeated, and actually 4-0 ATS when a dog or favorite of less than a TD. This short favorite spot is a good one for Denver again this week, and I like them to cover at Cleveland. Cleveland is somewhat overvalued right now after their big divisional win over the Ravens, which really had more to do with the Ravens losing than the Browns winning. Denver -4.
The last game (which I'm jumping on now while I can get the -7 1/2) is the Pats at Indy. Tom Brady is lights out when he's on a revenge jag, and the long and bitter rivalry has only gotten worse since the AFC Championship game. The Colts have a terrible defense, and whether Luck plays or not, they aren't going to be able to go TD-for-TD with New England. Road favorites of more than a touchdown are dicey, but I just see the Colts walking into a buzz saw. Pats -7.5.
A lot of people are jumping all over Atlanta, though Julio Jones is still questionable. They look attractive-- decent spot, coming off a game they were in severe danger of losing and pulling it out at the end (a gut-check, wake-up call type game), playing a 1-4 Saints team with little left to play for... and only 3 or 3 1/2 points! This has trap game written all over it-- divisional game, on the road, against your rival. I'll stay away, as I have been burned by the Saints already, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Saints cover and/or win the game outright.
Cincinnati and Buffalo opened at a PK, but the line has swung 3 1/2 points. I don't have a good feel for this game, and I think the Buffalo D might be the best defense they've seen thus far. The other game that looks dangerous is the Chargers at Green Bay. San Diego just got kicked in the teeth by the Steelers on national TV and are in danger of losing their season. A loss at Green Bay would pretty much end any post-season hopes. I don't like picking against desperate teams as heavy dogs-- from a football perspective, Rodgers should carve them up good. From a statistical and historical perspective, these are usually bad plays on the favorite. I'll just lay off and see what happens.
I do like a total, however-- Chicago and Detroit. Both have rotten defenses, and Cutler can put up points. Paired with the fact that Stafford just might sling it around as many times as Cutler, I like the offenses to have a field day against some weak competition on both sides. Both teams aren't going anywhere, so a shootout sounds like fun. Chicago-Detroit OVER 43.
The Denver Broncos-- powered by a better defense and lacking the explosive offensive plays of the past few years-- are still undefeated, and actually 4-0 ATS when a dog or favorite of less than a TD. This short favorite spot is a good one for Denver again this week, and I like them to cover at Cleveland. Cleveland is somewhat overvalued right now after their big divisional win over the Ravens, which really had more to do with the Ravens losing than the Browns winning. Denver -4.
The last game (which I'm jumping on now while I can get the -7 1/2) is the Pats at Indy. Tom Brady is lights out when he's on a revenge jag, and the long and bitter rivalry has only gotten worse since the AFC Championship game. The Colts have a terrible defense, and whether Luck plays or not, they aren't going to be able to go TD-for-TD with New England. Road favorites of more than a touchdown are dicey, but I just see the Colts walking into a buzz saw. Pats -7.5.
Week 5 Recap
Philly had a huge second half and finally got things going offensively, so my New Orleans pick was a bad loser. I split the week with the Bears cashing a SU win as nearly double digit dogs on a late TD.
How bad is the AFC South? The Luck-less Colts have as many wins as the rest of the division combined. The win at Houston with Hasselbeck under center was huge, as the Colts have now played (and won) all of their divisional road games (also, what kind of scheduling madness is that?)
AFC divisions are interesting this year, as the AFC North, East, West, and South all have division leaders with commanding early-season leads. Three of the four have undefeated leaders, and second place in the North and West are .500. The Jets are 3-1, but does anyone really expect an over-achieving Jets team with a weak-ish early schedule to challenge the Pats?
Of the undefeated teams, the Pats and Packers look the best, but the most impressive 5-0 start is probably Cincy-- they seem to have figured out (at the moment at least) how to win games they would have lost in previous years. The comeback win against the Ravens and this weekend's OT thriller to beat Seattle are both impressive, gritty wins.
Speaking of the Seahawks, the NFC West is interesting-- Arizona got back to its winning ways this week, but the Seahawks and Rams lost. Despite a scrappy performance, the SF defense gave up the go-ahead TD late. The Niners are playing better on offense, but their defense just isn't the same (the front office might take note of Jim Harbaugh's Michigan defense that has pitched 3 shutouts in a row-- the fist time that's happened in 20 years in college football). Still, this race is competitive with Arizona now on top at 4-1. At 2-3, the Rams and Seahawks have some work to do.
The Giants are now in sole possesion of first place in the NFC East, as Dallas just can't find a way to make Weedon a winner. Philly is looking less a disaster, and I don't love the match-up with the Giants defense, which couldn't stop Kaepernick in the second half (who came into Sunday's game with one of the worst QBRs in the NFL). The Giants can't run the ball, so I'd expect that Eli will be throwing for his life the rest of the year.
The NFC North has panned out much like the AFC-- Green Bay is in clear control of the situation there. The NFC South-- last year's worst division-- has two undefeated teams. Atlanta gutted out a win over a bad Washington team in OT on a bad throw from Cousins. Carolina is 4-0, but against Tampa Bay, Houston, Jacksonville, and New Orleans (combined record 5-15) and now face a schedule that includes Seattle, Philly, Indy and Green Bay. Err, enjoy that 4-0.
And how about the Steelers on MNF? What a gutsy call at the end of the game-- the Chargers look nearly dead in the water in the division unless Denver crashes and burns (and with the injuries, that could well happen). The Steelers needed that game badly, as they will have an uphill battle chasing down Cincy for the rest of the season.
NFL 2015 Week 5: 1-1
NFL 2015 Season Total: 7-5
How bad is the AFC South? The Luck-less Colts have as many wins as the rest of the division combined. The win at Houston with Hasselbeck under center was huge, as the Colts have now played (and won) all of their divisional road games (also, what kind of scheduling madness is that?)
AFC divisions are interesting this year, as the AFC North, East, West, and South all have division leaders with commanding early-season leads. Three of the four have undefeated leaders, and second place in the North and West are .500. The Jets are 3-1, but does anyone really expect an over-achieving Jets team with a weak-ish early schedule to challenge the Pats?
Of the undefeated teams, the Pats and Packers look the best, but the most impressive 5-0 start is probably Cincy-- they seem to have figured out (at the moment at least) how to win games they would have lost in previous years. The comeback win against the Ravens and this weekend's OT thriller to beat Seattle are both impressive, gritty wins.
Speaking of the Seahawks, the NFC West is interesting-- Arizona got back to its winning ways this week, but the Seahawks and Rams lost. Despite a scrappy performance, the SF defense gave up the go-ahead TD late. The Niners are playing better on offense, but their defense just isn't the same (the front office might take note of Jim Harbaugh's Michigan defense that has pitched 3 shutouts in a row-- the fist time that's happened in 20 years in college football). Still, this race is competitive with Arizona now on top at 4-1. At 2-3, the Rams and Seahawks have some work to do.
The Giants are now in sole possesion of first place in the NFC East, as Dallas just can't find a way to make Weedon a winner. Philly is looking less a disaster, and I don't love the match-up with the Giants defense, which couldn't stop Kaepernick in the second half (who came into Sunday's game with one of the worst QBRs in the NFL). The Giants can't run the ball, so I'd expect that Eli will be throwing for his life the rest of the year.
The NFC North has panned out much like the AFC-- Green Bay is in clear control of the situation there. The NFC South-- last year's worst division-- has two undefeated teams. Atlanta gutted out a win over a bad Washington team in OT on a bad throw from Cousins. Carolina is 4-0, but against Tampa Bay, Houston, Jacksonville, and New Orleans (combined record 5-15) and now face a schedule that includes Seattle, Philly, Indy and Green Bay. Err, enjoy that 4-0.
And how about the Steelers on MNF? What a gutsy call at the end of the game-- the Chargers look nearly dead in the water in the division unless Denver crashes and burns (and with the injuries, that could well happen). The Steelers needed that game badly, as they will have an uphill battle chasing down Cincy for the rest of the season.
NFL 2015 Week 5: 1-1
NFL 2015 Season Total: 7-5
Sunday, October 11, 2015
Week 5 Picks
Busy week and didn't get my recap up for Week 4 (a week in which I didn't play any games, so no big deal). In any case, here we are early Sunday AM with two picks for Week 5.
I will play on the Chicago Bears +9.5 against Kansas City. Even with Alshon Jeffrey out still, there have been enough weapons emerge for Jay Cutler to keep this closer than one might think. Though solid, KC is not exactly an elite team yet. Da Bears +9.5.
I also like New Orleans +6 1/2. Philly is a mess, and has not played a complete game nor have they played well at home. New Orleans saved any chance their season has last week with a gritty win against the Romo-less Cowboys. I like New Orleans to keep this close, and maybe edge out a road win to keep their faint post-season hopes alive. New Orleans +6 1/2.
I will play on the Chicago Bears +9.5 against Kansas City. Even with Alshon Jeffrey out still, there have been enough weapons emerge for Jay Cutler to keep this closer than one might think. Though solid, KC is not exactly an elite team yet. Da Bears +9.5.
I also like New Orleans +6 1/2. Philly is a mess, and has not played a complete game nor have they played well at home. New Orleans saved any chance their season has last week with a gritty win against the Romo-less Cowboys. I like New Orleans to keep this close, and maybe edge out a road win to keep their faint post-season hopes alive. New Orleans +6 1/2.
Friday, October 2, 2015
Week 4 Picks
It's tempting to get on the (almost) double digit divisional underdog Jags as they travel to Indy, as double digit divisional dogs are usually money. They are my favorite plays. However, since losing 22-17 at home to the Jags in his first season, Andrew Luck has blown out Jacksonville 5 times. I also do not like backing double digit chalk, especially for a team that has such a horrible defense. The Colts have more turnovers than anyone in the NFL, and Jacksonville has the fewest number of takeaways. Someone is going to win that battle of mediocrity, and I don't really want any of my money needing a late 4th quarter defensive stop or a late 4th quarter drive for a backdoor cover with these two teams. I'll lay off this one.
The other games are seemingly just as tight-- the London game is always a no play for me. We just don't have enough data on how these play out and what coaches are good at preparing their teams for the travel, nor do we know much about how divisional games go down at Wembley (this is the first one).
Chicago is a mess, but does anyone trust Oakland on the road to cover anything? I don't know the last time the Raiders were road chalk, but I'm guessing some guy named Gruden was the coach. A few games are tempting-- the number on the Philly-Washington game seems low to me at 43, but one can't be sure which Eagles team will show up, or if Washington will even sniff the endzone.
I just have a feeling that this is going to be a weird week-- no good angles, not too many divisional match ups, etc. We could see a lot of winners turn into losers late in games. The Ravens-Steelers game last night is probably just the beginning (imagine holding that Pittsburgh +2 1/2 ticket all night just to see your money disappear in OT?) Long story short, I'm laying off Week 4 entirely. There are some things that could happen that will set up opportunities in Week 5, so I will bide my time and wait and see.
The other games are seemingly just as tight-- the London game is always a no play for me. We just don't have enough data on how these play out and what coaches are good at preparing their teams for the travel, nor do we know much about how divisional games go down at Wembley (this is the first one).
Chicago is a mess, but does anyone trust Oakland on the road to cover anything? I don't know the last time the Raiders were road chalk, but I'm guessing some guy named Gruden was the coach. A few games are tempting-- the number on the Philly-Washington game seems low to me at 43, but one can't be sure which Eagles team will show up, or if Washington will even sniff the endzone.
I just have a feeling that this is going to be a weird week-- no good angles, not too many divisional match ups, etc. We could see a lot of winners turn into losers late in games. The Ravens-Steelers game last night is probably just the beginning (imagine holding that Pittsburgh +2 1/2 ticket all night just to see your money disappear in OT?) Long story short, I'm laying off Week 4 entirely. There are some things that could happen that will set up opportunities in Week 5, so I will bide my time and wait and see.
Week 3 Recap
After two weeks of .500 picks, we got a solid 2-0 winner. Both picks were solid; the Eagles led the game wire to wire, going up 24-0 before the Jets scored their first points. The over in the Colts-Titans game was a little more dramatic, with the number hitting with around 7 minutes to go in the 4th quarter (though, there were still a few TDs to be scored, as the final number went all the way to 68). I'm glad I didn't try to play on the Colts -3-- now 0-3 ATS and 1-2 SU, that TD with less than a minute left blew the cover. I was in a sports book in downtown Vegas and the guys on the Colts side were cheering hard for that 2 point attempt to be good, as OT was their only hope!
Vegas lost on the Pats, who routed the heavy underdog Jags, but did pretty well the rest of the card. The lines were pretty tight and things were mostly even. I'm kicking myself for not getting on the New Orleans game when the number soared to NO +9.5-- that was an easy cover (seriously, who would back any NFC South team to cover 9.5 points?). I was, however, happy with going 2-0 in the early games and decided to just lay off.
The other game I had a slight lean to but decided not to play with Baltimore-- I really thought they would get off the slide and not go 0-3, but that meltdown in the late 4th quarter was hard to watch (less hard, since I didn't lose money on it).
Arizona is, once again, having a great year behind Carson Palmer's (third?) comeback. They still aren't getting the attention, but I have to think that Bruce Arians is just fine with that. Palmer is playing out of his mind, their line is opening up opportunities for the running game regardless of who is holding the ball, and the defense is solid (4 picks and 7 points allowed in Sunday's game). Granted, this is a team that has played New Orleans, Chicago and SF (a combined 1-8 record), so it will be interesting to see them against some better competition.
Seattle looked better and more internally in sync than they have thus far this year, covering as double digit favorites. The big story looming might be Green Bay and how dominant Aaron Rodgers has been thus far this season. He looks like an early-on MVP favorite; he shredded a usually stout KC defense at Lambeau.
In any case, nice to have a winning week and get in the green column for the first time this season.
NFL 2015 Week 3: 2-0
NFL 2015 Season Total: 6-4
Vegas lost on the Pats, who routed the heavy underdog Jags, but did pretty well the rest of the card. The lines were pretty tight and things were mostly even. I'm kicking myself for not getting on the New Orleans game when the number soared to NO +9.5-- that was an easy cover (seriously, who would back any NFC South team to cover 9.5 points?). I was, however, happy with going 2-0 in the early games and decided to just lay off.
The other game I had a slight lean to but decided not to play with Baltimore-- I really thought they would get off the slide and not go 0-3, but that meltdown in the late 4th quarter was hard to watch (less hard, since I didn't lose money on it).
Arizona is, once again, having a great year behind Carson Palmer's (third?) comeback. They still aren't getting the attention, but I have to think that Bruce Arians is just fine with that. Palmer is playing out of his mind, their line is opening up opportunities for the running game regardless of who is holding the ball, and the defense is solid (4 picks and 7 points allowed in Sunday's game). Granted, this is a team that has played New Orleans, Chicago and SF (a combined 1-8 record), so it will be interesting to see them against some better competition.
Seattle looked better and more internally in sync than they have thus far this year, covering as double digit favorites. The big story looming might be Green Bay and how dominant Aaron Rodgers has been thus far this season. He looks like an early-on MVP favorite; he shredded a usually stout KC defense at Lambeau.
In any case, nice to have a winning week and get in the green column for the first time this season.
NFL 2015 Week 3: 2-0
NFL 2015 Season Total: 6-4
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