It's tempting to get on the (almost) double digit divisional underdog Jags as they travel to Indy, as double digit divisional dogs are usually money. They are my favorite plays. However, since losing 22-17 at home to the Jags in his first season, Andrew Luck has blown out Jacksonville 5 times. I also do not like backing double digit chalk, especially for a team that has such a horrible defense. The Colts have more turnovers than anyone in the NFL, and Jacksonville has the fewest number of takeaways. Someone is going to win that battle of mediocrity, and I don't really want any of my money needing a late 4th quarter defensive stop or a late 4th quarter drive for a backdoor cover with these two teams. I'll lay off this one.
The other games are seemingly just as tight-- the London game is always a no play for me. We just don't have enough data on how these play out and what coaches are good at preparing their teams for the travel, nor do we know much about how divisional games go down at Wembley (this is the first one).
Chicago is a mess, but does anyone trust Oakland on the road to cover anything? I don't know the last time the Raiders were road chalk, but I'm guessing some guy named Gruden was the coach. A few games are tempting-- the number on the Philly-Washington game seems low to me at 43, but one can't be sure which Eagles team will show up, or if Washington will even sniff the endzone.
I just have a feeling that this is going to be a weird week-- no good angles, not too many divisional match ups, etc. We could see a lot of winners turn into losers late in games. The Ravens-Steelers game last night is probably just the beginning (imagine holding that Pittsburgh +2 1/2 ticket all night just to see your money disappear in OT?) Long story short, I'm laying off Week 4 entirely. There are some things that could happen that will set up opportunities in Week 5, so I will bide my time and wait and see.
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