Sunday, November 30, 2014
Thursday, November 27, 2014
Turkey Day picks!
A little behind getting my post up this week due to holiday travel. I'll do last week's recap next week-- but here are two picks for today's games.
I'm backing Chicago +7; I think there's value in the Bear's offense being able to keep it close against the Lions. Chicago +7
I'm also taking the under 56 in the Eagles/Cowboys game. That's a high number for a divisional game that will likely be played pretty conservatively. Under 56.
I'm backing Chicago +7; I think there's value in the Bear's offense being able to keep it close against the Lions. Chicago +7
I'm also taking the under 56 in the Eagles/Cowboys game. That's a high number for a divisional game that will likely be played pretty conservatively. Under 56.
Thursday, November 20, 2014
Week 12 Picks
I alluded to the issues with the Saints in my Week 11 Recap, especially now that they have dropped 2 games at home, where they usually are so dominant. While it seems they aren't the same team that pasted the Packers back in Week 8, it's really not as bad as it seems. First off, the loss to the 49er's was a close OT loss that was set up by a very questionable call. The Cincinnati game was just getting caught flat-footed-- I would wager that the Saints were looking ahead and feeling good about their divisional chances. Given Atlanta's win to pull into a 1st place tie (with Atlanta having a SU win over the Saints already), New Orleans will be ready to play when Baltimore visits. Baltimore has lost 3 of 5 on the road (with a close road win at Cleveland and a blowout of abyssmal Tampa Bay). I expect a well-prepared, focused effort from Drew Brees and company, aided by a Super Dome that will be a very tough place to play. They need this one before playing 3 of their last 5 on the road. Saints -3.
I'm also taking the Denver Broncos as seven point favorites. The line is a tad bit of overreaction to the loss. I very rarely play favorites like Denver, but I think we are getting some value here against a Miami team that isn't as good as their record might indicate. Broncos -7.
I've got two very interesting trends working against one another this week-- Andrew Luck's stellar record ATS after a loss and double digit divisional dogs. So which one am I taking? This is a tough one, and I should probably just lay off this game, but... The Jags started the season by getting blown out by 14 or more points in their first four games, including a 44-17 beatdown at home against the Colts. In the six games since, they haven't lost by more than 14 points-- against some fairly salty competition (Steelers, Dolphins, Bengals, Browns, Cowboys, and, well, Tennessee). As 14 point dogs, I'll make a move and back the Jags to get enough on the scoreboard to get the ATS win. Jaguars +14.
I'm also taking the Denver Broncos as seven point favorites. The line is a tad bit of overreaction to the loss. I very rarely play favorites like Denver, but I think we are getting some value here against a Miami team that isn't as good as their record might indicate. Broncos -7.
I've got two very interesting trends working against one another this week-- Andrew Luck's stellar record ATS after a loss and double digit divisional dogs. So which one am I taking? This is a tough one, and I should probably just lay off this game, but... The Jags started the season by getting blown out by 14 or more points in their first four games, including a 44-17 beatdown at home against the Colts. In the six games since, they haven't lost by more than 14 points-- against some fairly salty competition (Steelers, Dolphins, Bengals, Browns, Cowboys, and, well, Tennessee). As 14 point dogs, I'll make a move and back the Jags to get enough on the scoreboard to get the ATS win. Jaguars +14.
Week 11 Recap
Back to .500 after another losing week. Detroit was disappointing, as outside of the first quarter, their defense was really solid. I always like the dogs in these low scoring defensive struggles, but Arizona hit them early. The Steelers were a let down as well-- the INT at the end of the 2nd quarter and the ensuing 80-yard TD bomb sealed this game as a loss early. The only bright spot was New England leading basically wire-to-wire en route to a blowout win on the road as 3-point dogs.
This one of those weeks in the NFL-- to me it seems that the big upset week usually happens a little later, in December-- but every season there's one where some big underdogs beat playoff teams. The Rams beatdown of the Broncos was very impressive, especially given how they did it-- shutting down Peyton Manning is a difficult task. The Rams have beat some very, very good teams; while this is something of a surprise, Jeff Fisher is a solid, solid coach. That is looking to be a great hire in St. Louis.
Washington is a mess. I don't envy Jay Gruden as he tries to negotiate the lockerroom, his "star" QB, and a problematic owner. The offense played terribly on Sunday, and got little help from the defense. You know things are bad when you lose to an NFC South team.
Speaking of the NFC South, well, just, wow. New Orleans falls again at home, this time to a Cincinnati team that has been terribly inconsistent for most the year. The Saints feel far-removed from the team that beat Green Bay at home a scant few weeks ago-- or do they? They are a very interesting team to watch down the stretch.
Quietly, KC is tied with Denver atop the AFC West. Denver has to go to Arrowhead on November 30th, too. They had an impressive, physical win against Seattle-- sort of beating the Seahawks at their own game. This is another division-- like the AFC North, the NFC West, the NFC East, and the NFC South-- that is totally up for grabs in the last third of the season. It will be exciting to have so many important, meaningful division games in December.
NFL 2014 Week 11: 1-2
NFL 2014 Season Total: 16-16
Thursday, November 13, 2014
Week 11 Picks
I like three road teams this week. The first of which is the Pats on the road in Indy. Tom Brady +3 is almost always a play, and I like them here. The Colts have a respectable record, but have struggled against likely playoff teams (Eagles, Broncos, and Steelers) and amassed much of their record against the likes of Jacksonville, the Giants, Houston, Tenessee... the home win over Baltimore is probably the highest quality win they have. I expect this to be a close one, and I think the Pats find a way to edge out the Colts at home. New England +3.
I like Detroit this week as short dogs in the desert. I love Bruce Arians and what he's doing in Arizona, but that D-line of Detroit is tough. They should have a field day against Drew Stanton. Stafford and Johnson connect enough to edge out a road win here as the back-up gets rattled by the Lions defense. Detroit + 1 1/2.
I'm also playing on Pittsburgh -6 this week, which is more a play on Mike Tomlin than anything. He'll have this team coached up and ready to play, and I like them to whale on the Titans to shake off the stink of losing to the J-E-T-S last week. Pittsburgh -6.
I like Detroit this week as short dogs in the desert. I love Bruce Arians and what he's doing in Arizona, but that D-line of Detroit is tough. They should have a field day against Drew Stanton. Stafford and Johnson connect enough to edge out a road win here as the back-up gets rattled by the Lions defense. Detroit + 1 1/2.
I'm also playing on Pittsburgh -6 this week, which is more a play on Mike Tomlin than anything. He'll have this team coached up and ready to play, and I like them to whale on the Titans to shake off the stink of losing to the J-E-T-S last week. Pittsburgh -6.
Week 10 Recap
A not-so-stellar 1-2 week, but I'll take it, considering how the KC-Buffalo game could have turned out. The Raiders hung in there for a bit, but have the bad mark of being the first double digit divisional dog to lose ATS. The Panthers - Eagles tilt was busted from the beginning; turning the ball over that many times on the wrong side of the field is a killer for the under.
Speaking of the Eagles, how about that Mark Sanchez? It will be interesting to see if he can continue to play well down the stretch. If so, I'll be interested to hear how the talking heads spin it-- Sanchez having NFL-level talent for real, or just a beneficiary of the system.
I almost took the Saints last week at home as short chalk against a previously reeling SF team; glad I didn't. Though the Saints should have covered (that call on the GW TD at the end of the 4th was pretty sketchy), they didn't. Dodged a bullet there. The Saints are still 4-5 and still basically in control of the worst division in football.
The Jets were surprise winners over a Steelers team that has looked like a real contender the past few weeks. Such is the NFL; once teams start believing the hype, they lay an egg. I really didn't see this coming here, as Mike Tomlin's teams are usually pretty mentally tough when it comes to let down games. Vegas cashed some nice money on this, I think.
Chicago is playing such terrible football right now, but this is a team to watch. They could be deadly ATS with all those weapons, and there might be a spot at some point in the coming weeks to back them. Or, they could just continue to be hardcore terrible.
NFL 2014 Week 10: 1-2
NFL 2014 Season Total: 15-14
Speaking of the Eagles, how about that Mark Sanchez? It will be interesting to see if he can continue to play well down the stretch. If so, I'll be interested to hear how the talking heads spin it-- Sanchez having NFL-level talent for real, or just a beneficiary of the system.
I almost took the Saints last week at home as short chalk against a previously reeling SF team; glad I didn't. Though the Saints should have covered (that call on the GW TD at the end of the 4th was pretty sketchy), they didn't. Dodged a bullet there. The Saints are still 4-5 and still basically in control of the worst division in football.
The Jets were surprise winners over a Steelers team that has looked like a real contender the past few weeks. Such is the NFL; once teams start believing the hype, they lay an egg. I really didn't see this coming here, as Mike Tomlin's teams are usually pretty mentally tough when it comes to let down games. Vegas cashed some nice money on this, I think.
Chicago is playing such terrible football right now, but this is a team to watch. They could be deadly ATS with all those weapons, and there might be a spot at some point in the coming weeks to back them. Or, they could just continue to be hardcore terrible.
NFL 2014 Week 10: 1-2
NFL 2014 Season Total: 15-14
Thursday, November 6, 2014
Week 10 Picks
This is a tight board for Week 10, but there are some value plays. This is not a week one expects to go 3-0 for a sweep, but I'm taking three plays that I feel have a good chance at a 2-1 mark. Not every week you get a gift like Brady getting points at home from last week.
I like the Chiefs as very short (-1 1/2) road chalk at the Bills. The Chiefs have quietly made a respectable 5-3 mark for themselves, with relatively close losses to SF and Denver on the road. Save the first rather inexplicable Week 1 loss to Tenessee at home, they've played well. They aren't getting a lot of talk, even though they trail Denver by 1 game with Denver still having to come to Arrowhead later in the season. The Bills, on the other hand, have garnered their last two W's against the Vikings and Jets. They have a quality win over Detroit, but at this point in the season, I think KC is better team. KC -1 1/2.
I'm going to play the trend of the double digit divisional dog this week, taking the Raiders +12 1/2. I may regret this, but this is such a strong trend that I missed out on last week. They have been playing better... I don't see on paper how this is close, but the trend is what the trend is. Raiders +12 1/2.
I can get a total of 49 now for the Carolina - Philly game. I like the under here. With Sanchez starting and Carolina's defense playing better (and their offense playing terribly), I like this to stay under that big number. I was surprised-- I thought this would be in the 44-46 range. This is a definite play at 49. Carolina/Philly UNDER 49.
I like the Chiefs as very short (-1 1/2) road chalk at the Bills. The Chiefs have quietly made a respectable 5-3 mark for themselves, with relatively close losses to SF and Denver on the road. Save the first rather inexplicable Week 1 loss to Tenessee at home, they've played well. They aren't getting a lot of talk, even though they trail Denver by 1 game with Denver still having to come to Arrowhead later in the season. The Bills, on the other hand, have garnered their last two W's against the Vikings and Jets. They have a quality win over Detroit, but at this point in the season, I think KC is better team. KC -1 1/2.
I'm going to play the trend of the double digit divisional dog this week, taking the Raiders +12 1/2. I may regret this, but this is such a strong trend that I missed out on last week. They have been playing better... I don't see on paper how this is close, but the trend is what the trend is. Raiders +12 1/2.
I can get a total of 49 now for the Carolina - Philly game. I like the under here. With Sanchez starting and Carolina's defense playing better (and their offense playing terribly), I like this to stay under that big number. I was surprised-- I thought this would be in the 44-46 range. This is a definite play at 49. Carolina/Philly UNDER 49.
Week 9 Recap
Ended up being a one-play week, and left some winners on the board. I'm happy to get a win, however, with the Pats manhandling Peyton Manning once again in Foxboro.
The Rams holding on against the 49ers to win outright was something to see. I think we might be seeing San Fran implode rather dramatically. Double digit divisional dogs are now 5-0 ATS and 3-2 SU this season.
The Colts-Giants game looked like it could be close early on, with the Giants stop unit doing a pretty good job roughing up Luck. To his credit, Luck was tough and had a short memory for some of the bad throws he made in the first half. Eli wasn't getting much help from his receivers-- a very depleted and not very talented unit. The Colts defense rebounded in this game, and Vontae Davis was huge all night.
Wither San Diego? The Chargers' usual MO is a very bad start and then a late season run, but they seem to be reversing this trend this year. After a hot start, they are swooning, getting completely pasted by Miami on the road. At 5-4 they aren't out of it yet, but that 3 game losing streak is a bad trend.
The NFC East still provides some good drama-- Romo's back, Sanchez taking over for Chip's offense... The Cowboys seem to have caught a break with Romo's back injury not being too serious (and playing the Jags in London). Nick Foles, on the other hand, looks to be out of commission for at least the major portion of the rest of the regular season. It will be interesting to see this divisional dogfight between these two teams. The Giants and Washington are pretty much out of it, barring some kind of huge turnaround and epic fail on the part of the division leaders (not out of the question if history is any indication).
Seattle still looks very vulnerable, having to hold on to beat the winless Raiders. With the 49ers implosion, Arizona is looking to pull away and lock up the division. Something tells me that the Superbowl curse is likely to rear its head again and quash the playoff hopes of the Seahawks.
NFL 2014 Week 9: 1-0
NFL 2014 Season Total: 14-12
The Rams holding on against the 49ers to win outright was something to see. I think we might be seeing San Fran implode rather dramatically. Double digit divisional dogs are now 5-0 ATS and 3-2 SU this season.
The Colts-Giants game looked like it could be close early on, with the Giants stop unit doing a pretty good job roughing up Luck. To his credit, Luck was tough and had a short memory for some of the bad throws he made in the first half. Eli wasn't getting much help from his receivers-- a very depleted and not very talented unit. The Colts defense rebounded in this game, and Vontae Davis was huge all night.
Wither San Diego? The Chargers' usual MO is a very bad start and then a late season run, but they seem to be reversing this trend this year. After a hot start, they are swooning, getting completely pasted by Miami on the road. At 5-4 they aren't out of it yet, but that 3 game losing streak is a bad trend.
The NFC East still provides some good drama-- Romo's back, Sanchez taking over for Chip's offense... The Cowboys seem to have caught a break with Romo's back injury not being too serious (and playing the Jags in London). Nick Foles, on the other hand, looks to be out of commission for at least the major portion of the rest of the regular season. It will be interesting to see this divisional dogfight between these two teams. The Giants and Washington are pretty much out of it, barring some kind of huge turnaround and epic fail on the part of the division leaders (not out of the question if history is any indication).
Seattle still looks very vulnerable, having to hold on to beat the winless Raiders. With the 49ers implosion, Arizona is looking to pull away and lock up the division. Something tells me that the Superbowl curse is likely to rear its head again and quash the playoff hopes of the Seahawks.
NFL 2014 Week 9: 1-0
NFL 2014 Season Total: 14-12
Monday, November 3, 2014
Week 9 Picks Update
I didn't pull the trigger on the Colts as planned, despite the reports that Wayne and Davis are active. Apparently, there is some chatter that Wayne will be active but isn't 100%. It's about 40 minutes until kick off and I just don't like the angles, despite the situational trend (Andrew Luck ATS after a loss). I'm kicking myself for overthinking the Rams game and getting ahead of the solid play, so I don't want to chase with this game. I'll take my win on the Pats for a 1-0 week this week. I'd much rather kick myself for losing out on a 3-0 weekend by not playing the strong trends on the Colts and Rams than go 1-1. Losing is worse than not winning, as it were.
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