I alluded to the issues with the Saints in my Week 11 Recap, especially now that they have dropped 2 games at home, where they usually are so dominant. While it seems they aren't the same team that pasted the Packers back in Week 8, it's really not as bad as it seems. First off, the loss to the 49er's was a close OT loss that was set up by a very questionable call. The Cincinnati game was just getting caught flat-footed-- I would wager that the Saints were looking ahead and feeling good about their divisional chances. Given Atlanta's win to pull into a 1st place tie (with Atlanta having a SU win over the Saints already), New Orleans will be ready to play when Baltimore visits. Baltimore has lost 3 of 5 on the road (with a close road win at Cleveland and a blowout of abyssmal Tampa Bay). I expect a well-prepared, focused effort from Drew Brees and company, aided by a Super Dome that will be a very tough place to play. They need this one before playing 3 of their last 5 on the road. Saints -3.
I'm also taking the Denver Broncos as seven point favorites. The line is a tad bit of overreaction to the loss. I very rarely play favorites like Denver, but I think we are getting some value here against a Miami team that isn't as good as their record might indicate. Broncos -7.
I've got two very interesting trends working against one another this week-- Andrew Luck's stellar record ATS after a loss and double digit divisional dogs. So which one am I taking? This is a tough one, and I should probably just lay off this game, but... The Jags started the season by getting blown out by 14 or more points in their first four games, including a 44-17 beatdown at home against the Colts. In the six games since, they haven't lost by more than 14 points-- against some fairly salty competition (Steelers, Dolphins, Bengals, Browns, Cowboys, and, well, Tennessee). As 14 point dogs, I'll make a move and back the Jags to get enough on the scoreboard to get the ATS win. Jaguars +14.
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