This is a tight board for Week 10, but there are some value plays. This is not a week one expects to go 3-0 for a sweep, but I'm taking three plays that I feel have a good chance at a 2-1 mark. Not every week you get a gift like Brady getting points at home from last week.
I like the Chiefs as very short (-1 1/2) road chalk at the Bills. The Chiefs have quietly made a respectable 5-3 mark for themselves, with relatively close losses to SF and Denver on the road. Save the first rather inexplicable Week 1 loss to Tenessee at home, they've played well. They aren't getting a lot of talk, even though they trail Denver by 1 game with Denver still having to come to Arrowhead later in the season. The Bills, on the other hand, have garnered their last two W's against the Vikings and Jets. They have a quality win over Detroit, but at this point in the season, I think KC is better team. KC -1 1/2.
I'm going to play the trend of the double digit divisional dog this week, taking the Raiders +12 1/2. I may regret this, but this is such a strong trend that I missed out on last week. They have been playing better... I don't see on paper how this is close, but the trend is what the trend is. Raiders +12 1/2.
I can get a total of 49 now for the Carolina - Philly game. I like the under here. With Sanchez starting and Carolina's defense playing better (and their offense playing terribly), I like this to stay under that big number. I was surprised-- I thought this would be in the 44-46 range. This is a definite play at 49. Carolina/Philly UNDER 49.
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