No Week 15 picks-- the board was pretty tight and I wasn't liking any of the plays. Two weeks of record-setting offensive numbers just makes it hard to gauge how games are going to play out. Plus, we are nearing the end of the season, and I wanted to protect my profits a bit.
I rarely play on the last weekend of the season, and very rarely play on playoff games, unless it's a play on the total. So, my Week 16 picks are probably my last slate of full card picks (unless something too interesting comes up). I really like this card, and feel I have a good chance at 3-2 or even 4-1.
I'll post my Week 15 Recap later this week, but wanted to lock in a few Week 16 picks while the lines are fresh.
I love that I can get New Orleans +3 1/2 at Carolina, and that is all thanks to the Saint's eating it on the road in St. Louis. Classic look-ahead game; Brees and company will be ready for a contested divisional game and should play well. I think they will win this game, and having a team that should probably be favored (even if on the road) as a 3 1/2 point dog is great. New Orleans +3 1/2.
I'll take Cleveland +2 visiting the Jets as well. Cleveland should have won this last week, but couldn't hold onto the ball. They are the better team, and I don't the Jets should really be favored against anyone. Cleveland +2.
I always play double-digit divisional dogs, and I'll certainly take a 9-5 team +10 1/2, even if they are playing in Seattle. The Seahawks look the part of the best team in the NFL, but I like Arizona to keep it close on the road in a tight divisional game at the end of the year. Arizona +10 1/2.
Speaking of double digit divisional dogs, I'll take the Raiders this week as well, +10 at the Chargers. The Chargers have looked the part of late, but again, late-season division games are always tricky. The Chargers need this game to stay in the hunt, but this is really Oakland's playoff game-- they aren't going anywhere, but who on the Raider team doesn't want to all-but destroy Rivers' chance at the post-season? Oakland +10.
The last game I'm taking is the Pats + 1 1/2. Somehow, the Pats losing to a more-than-decent Miami team in a divisional game on the road means that Tom Brady all of sudden sucks? Look back at the New England - Miami series over the last 10 years-- the Dolphins have always played the Pats tough, even in the worst years for the fish. New England is just fine, and even without Gronk, should put away the defending Superbowl champs handily. New England +1 1/2.
Monday, December 16, 2013
Friday, December 6, 2013
Week 14 Picks
I really wanted Cincinnati -3 this week as they host the Colts, but the line has been pushed up to -6. This is a huge let-down game for the Colts-- last week, they more or less wrapped up the division (especially with 2 wins over the second place Titans who are playing at Denver this weekend), and are home again next week with a division game. Cincinnati can deliver a huge blow to the rest of the division with a win at home against a struggling Colts team. I like Cincy to win this one, but I have a feeling that this is a game won or lost on a FG. I'd take my chances with the 3, but not on the 6. Conversely, some books are showing Colts +6.5, and if that number gets to +7, I'll add a play on the Colts. So this is something of a conditional play (though I don't expect to get the Colts +7, if I do, I'll pull the trigger).
I will play on Detroit - Philadelphia under the number this week. Both teams are vying for a division title, and I think this game will be approached like a playoff game to some extent-- careful, not a lot of risk taking, and with an emphasis on trying to run the ball and play good defense. Both teams have high-powered offenses (which is why the number is so high), but I expect that both teams will try to establish the run game to really contest the time and number of possessions. I also like the improvements that the Philly defense has made. Detroit - Philly UNDER 54.5.
I also like the Cowboys +1 on Monday Night. They Cowboys actually play pretty well on the road, and I like how the Dallas offense matches up with the woeful Chicago defense. Dallas's improving D should be able to keep the game close enough for a late rally if needed, and I like Romo to be able to move the ball at will late in the 4th quarter. Dallas +1.
I will play on Detroit - Philadelphia under the number this week. Both teams are vying for a division title, and I think this game will be approached like a playoff game to some extent-- careful, not a lot of risk taking, and with an emphasis on trying to run the ball and play good defense. Both teams have high-powered offenses (which is why the number is so high), but I expect that both teams will try to establish the run game to really contest the time and number of possessions. I also like the improvements that the Philly defense has made. Detroit - Philly UNDER 54.5.
I also like the Cowboys +1 on Monday Night. They Cowboys actually play pretty well on the road, and I like how the Dallas offense matches up with the woeful Chicago defense. Dallas's improving D should be able to keep the game close enough for a late rally if needed, and I like Romo to be able to move the ball at will late in the 4th quarter. Dallas +1.
Week 13 Recap
I tried to get a little fancy this week and didn't take the strong trend plays on the Colts and the Texans (in the former, Andrew Luck is now 9-0 ATS following a loss; in the latter, this season, teams with 15% or less of the money in Vegas are 11-3 ATS). The Steelers pick cashed on a strong trend, but I gave it back with my play on the total in the Tennessee - Indy game. They total was a decent enough play-- both teams were able to move the ball up and down the field, but couldn't cash it in the end zone (witness Vinatieri's monster 5 field goal day). So, I ended up 1-1.
As we head down the stretch, a few things are coming to the fore. Clearly, Seattle is a place no one wants to play in January. I really thought the Saints would be more competitive in the Monday night game, but they were just bottled and throttled. The most surprising aspect of this Seahawks team for me is Wilson-- I keep waiting for him to have a really bad game or make some really bad decisions in a key moment, like most 2nd year QBs tend to do. Thus far, this guy has been poised and competent, and in a few games (like Monday), pretty brilliant. Looking at the whole of the NFC, I still think New Orleans (despite the recent drubbing) is really the only team that could bust them in the mouth in Seattle. I don't see the 49ers or the Cowboys being able to get that done. In any case, so long as Seattle doesn't have some kind of colossal meltdown, it looks like to road to the NFC side of the Superbowl will go through the Pacific Northwest.
It's dangerous to underestimate how big the win at San Diego was for the Bengals-- that was a perfectly loseable game for the "Bungles", and one that in years passed they would have messed up somehow. Getting a tough win on the road against a team that can be pretty decent was impressive and puts some distance in the AFC North race.
I keep waiting for Carolina to come back to earth-- I had a hunch that Tampa Bay might play them closer this past week, but they really didn't-- at all. SF was a big winner in a divisional game I thought would be closer, too. Denver, while looking fairly unstoppable on most drives on offense, has major defensive issues (what's new, right, Peyton Manning?). The big difference between this Denver team and the Manning-led teams in Indy is that the Broncos actually have a run game and can usually play the run pretty tough defensively. They just have a horrible, horrible secondary.
NFL 2013 Week 13: 1-1
NFL 2013 Season Total: 23-14
As we head down the stretch, a few things are coming to the fore. Clearly, Seattle is a place no one wants to play in January. I really thought the Saints would be more competitive in the Monday night game, but they were just bottled and throttled. The most surprising aspect of this Seahawks team for me is Wilson-- I keep waiting for him to have a really bad game or make some really bad decisions in a key moment, like most 2nd year QBs tend to do. Thus far, this guy has been poised and competent, and in a few games (like Monday), pretty brilliant. Looking at the whole of the NFC, I still think New Orleans (despite the recent drubbing) is really the only team that could bust them in the mouth in Seattle. I don't see the 49ers or the Cowboys being able to get that done. In any case, so long as Seattle doesn't have some kind of colossal meltdown, it looks like to road to the NFC side of the Superbowl will go through the Pacific Northwest.
It's dangerous to underestimate how big the win at San Diego was for the Bengals-- that was a perfectly loseable game for the "Bungles", and one that in years passed they would have messed up somehow. Getting a tough win on the road against a team that can be pretty decent was impressive and puts some distance in the AFC North race.
I keep waiting for Carolina to come back to earth-- I had a hunch that Tampa Bay might play them closer this past week, but they really didn't-- at all. SF was a big winner in a divisional game I thought would be closer, too. Denver, while looking fairly unstoppable on most drives on offense, has major defensive issues (what's new, right, Peyton Manning?). The big difference between this Denver team and the Manning-led teams in Indy is that the Broncos actually have a run game and can usually play the run pretty tough defensively. They just have a horrible, horrible secondary.
NFL 2013 Week 13: 1-1
NFL 2013 Season Total: 23-14
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