Week 13 Recap

I tried to get a little fancy this week and didn't take the strong trend plays on the Colts and the Texans (in the former, Andrew Luck is now 9-0 ATS following  a loss; in the latter, this season, teams with 15% or less of the money in Vegas are 11-3 ATS).  The Steelers pick cashed on a strong trend, but I gave it back with my play on the total in the Tennessee - Indy game.  They total was a decent enough play-- both teams were able to move the ball up and down the field, but couldn't cash it in the end zone (witness Vinatieri's monster 5 field goal day).  So, I ended up 1-1.

As we head down the stretch, a few things are coming to the fore.  Clearly, Seattle is a place no one wants to play in January.  I really thought the Saints would be more competitive in the Monday night game, but they were just bottled and throttled.  The most surprising aspect of this Seahawks team for me is Wilson-- I keep waiting for him to have a really bad game or make some really bad decisions in a key moment, like most 2nd year QBs tend to do.  Thus far, this guy has been poised and competent, and in a few games (like Monday), pretty brilliant.  Looking at the whole of the NFC, I still think New Orleans (despite the recent drubbing) is really the only team that could bust them in the mouth in Seattle.  I don't see the 49ers or the Cowboys being able to get that done.  In any case, so long as Seattle doesn't have some kind of colossal meltdown, it looks like to road to the NFC side of the Superbowl will go through the Pacific Northwest.

It's dangerous to underestimate how big the win at San Diego was for the Bengals-- that was a perfectly loseable game for the "Bungles", and one that in years passed they would have messed up somehow.  Getting a tough win on the road against a team that can be pretty decent was impressive and puts some distance in the AFC North race.

I keep waiting for Carolina to come back to earth-- I had a hunch that Tampa Bay might play them closer this past week, but they really didn't-- at all.  SF was a big winner in a divisional game I thought would be closer, too.  Denver, while looking fairly unstoppable on most drives on offense, has major defensive issues (what's new, right, Peyton Manning?).  The big difference between this Denver team and the Manning-led teams in Indy is that the Broncos actually have a run game and can usually play the run pretty tough defensively.  They just have a horrible, horrible secondary.

NFL 2013 Week 13: 1-1
NFL 2013 Season Total: 23-14