I really wanted Cincinnati -3 this week as they host the Colts, but the line has been pushed up to -6. This is a huge let-down game for the Colts-- last week, they more or less wrapped up the division (especially with 2 wins over the second place Titans who are playing at Denver this weekend), and are home again next week with a division game. Cincinnati can deliver a huge blow to the rest of the division with a win at home against a struggling Colts team. I like Cincy to win this one, but I have a feeling that this is a game won or lost on a FG. I'd take my chances with the 3, but not on the 6. Conversely, some books are showing Colts +6.5, and if that number gets to +7, I'll add a play on the Colts. So this is something of a conditional play (though I don't expect to get the Colts +7, if I do, I'll pull the trigger).
I will play on Detroit - Philadelphia under the number this week. Both teams are vying for a division title, and I think this game will be approached like a playoff game to some extent-- careful, not a lot of risk taking, and with an emphasis on trying to run the ball and play good defense. Both teams have high-powered offenses (which is why the number is so high), but I expect that both teams will try to establish the run game to really contest the time and number of possessions. I also like the improvements that the Philly defense has made. Detroit - Philly UNDER 54.5.
I also like the Cowboys +1 on Monday Night. They Cowboys actually play pretty well on the road, and I like how the Dallas offense matches up with the woeful Chicago defense. Dallas's improving D should be able to keep the game close enough for a late rally if needed, and I like Romo to be able to move the ball at will late in the 4th quarter. Dallas +1.
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