Week 16 Picks

No Week 15 picks-- the board was pretty tight and I wasn't liking any of the plays.  Two weeks of record-setting offensive numbers just makes it hard to gauge how games are going to play out.  Plus, we are nearing the end of the season, and I wanted to protect my profits a bit.

I rarely play on the last weekend of the season, and very rarely play on playoff games, unless it's a play on the total.  So, my Week 16 picks are probably my last slate of full card picks (unless something too interesting comes up).  I really like this card, and feel I have a good chance at 3-2 or even 4-1.

I'll post my Week 15 Recap later this week, but wanted to lock in a few Week 16 picks while the lines are fresh.

I love that I can get New Orleans +3 1/2 at Carolina, and that is all thanks to the Saint's eating it on the road in St. Louis.  Classic look-ahead game; Brees and company will be ready for a contested divisional game and should play well.  I think they will win this game, and having a team that should probably be favored (even if on the road) as a 3 1/2 point dog is great.  New Orleans +3 1/2.

I'll take Cleveland +2 visiting the Jets as well.  Cleveland should have won this last week, but couldn't hold onto the ball.  They are the better team, and I don't the Jets should really be favored against anyone. Cleveland +2.

I always play double-digit divisional dogs, and I'll certainly take a 9-5 team +10 1/2, even if they are playing in Seattle.  The Seahawks look the part of the best team in the NFL, but I like Arizona to keep it close on the road in a tight divisional game at the end of the year.  Arizona +10 1/2.

Speaking of double digit divisional dogs, I'll take the Raiders this week as well, +10 at the Chargers.  The Chargers have looked the part of late, but again, late-season division games are always tricky.  The Chargers need this game to stay in the hunt, but this is really Oakland's playoff game-- they aren't going anywhere, but who on the Raider team doesn't want to all-but destroy Rivers' chance at the post-season?  Oakland +10.

The last game I'm taking is the Pats + 1 1/2.  Somehow, the Pats losing to a more-than-decent Miami team in a divisional game on the road means that Tom Brady all of sudden sucks?  Look back at the New England - Miami series over the last 10 years-- the Dolphins have always played the Pats tough, even in the worst years for the fish.  New England is just fine, and even without Gronk, should put away the defending Superbowl champs handily.  New England +1 1/2.