Some Vegas weirdness-- the Pats opened up as 7 point road favorites against Houston, and with 99% of the money on the visitors, the line has only moved 1/2 a point. That's a clear no-play for me-- I don't see how Houston is competitive in this game, expect that it seems that Vegas thinks so. And I'm not betting against the house. I am not, however, taking the opposite side. I can't pull the trigger on Houston, no matter how much money Vegas is asking for on the Pats.
I'm taking the Steelers +3, for no reason other than this: in the Big Ben - Flacco era, 9 of the 12 games in the series have been decided by 3 or fewer points, including 8 of the last 10 match-ups. That's almost six seasons of generally close games. I'm happy to take the three points, with a chance to win or push. Steelers +3.
The other trend play would be on the Colts -4-- Andrew Luck is money ATS after a loss (now 8-0 ATS after a loss). The Titans won dramatically on Sunday on the road, but still trail in the division. Indy can put a killshot on Tennessee's divisional aspirations with a win at Lucas Oil Stadium, as the Titans still have games against Arizona and Denver. Indy's defense is horrific, and I think they may well be in a hole early, and have to put the game on Luck's back. I think this may well be the week that Andrew Luck's ATS after a loss trend crashes instead of cashes. I don't think Tennessee is the right play either. I'd play on Indy at -3 (and was really, really hoping that I'd get it in the wake of the Arizona debacle), but the -4, I just don't know. I do, however, like the over 44 1/2 in the Tennessee - Indianapolis game. Indy's defense is horrific, and I think they may well be in a hole early, and have to put the game on Luck's back. I think points will be scored; Indy is giving up over 32 points per game in their last five, and has been able to put up big numbers against divisional opponents this season. Tennessee - Indianapolis OVER 44 1/2.
Two picks off a tough board-- I'd be thrilled to go 1-0-1 on this one.
No comments:
Post a Comment