The Chargers' big win really screwed up a possible good play this week. Taking a team off a big upset win is usually very bad news; I was hoping to get the Chargers a little more desparate and under-valued for this week's match-up against the Bills. They are 2 1/2 point dogs at this point, which would have been more had SD not pulled out the surprising win over the defending champs. I still like the Bolts to cover here, but not enough to trust Rivers with my money at that number. Slight lean and no play.
Speaking of setting up good plays-- I'm rooting hard for the Texans this week. Not because I'm betting on them, but because ANOTHER loss for the Giants will set them up as huge dogs in the Week 4 match up in primetime against division rival Washington. If the Team from Washington can manage to upset Philly, even better. I'd love to get NY as a double digit divisional dog on a nationally televised game.
It looks like Vegas is setting up a trap game an the Cowboys. The Cowboys are a huge public team, and they are very, very short favorites on the road this week in St. Louis. The Rams have looked like this year's Jags (i.e., woeful), and the Cowboys got a W last week... so Dallas -1 looks like a no-brainer, right? With 92% of the money on Dallas, the line isn't moving. That very, very often indicates that Vegas knows something we don't. Or at least, they know enough to be willing to overload the books on the Dallas side and gamble. Vegas doesn't always win, but they win more of these games than they lose. That being said, I don't see how Dallas loses this game-- and that's saying a lot, since each year the Cowboys are extraordinarily adept at inventing new ways to lose. I'll stay off this one, and will enjoy seeing is Vegas cashes or takes it on the chin.
If I did some digging, I might be able to find the last time an 0-2 team was an 11-point favorite, but suffice to say that's a rare thing indeed. I actually think the Saints have a good chance of covering here; it just depends on how aggressively they come after Cassell. If they rattle him like New England did, the Vikings could get blown out again. However, you'd be out of your mind to eat that much chalk on a 0-2 team, even one with Drew Brees. Interesting to see how this one plays out.
More interesting storylines in the lines this week than good plays, but I have two this week...
So what to do about the Colts this week? Like New Orleans, this is a pretty good team that's 0-2. The Colts came up short in a game on the road to the Super Bowl runner-up, and should have beat Philly at home. At 0-2, the Wild Card will be very, very difficult to catch. They only road to the playoffs is probably to win the division, and they will be looking to pound the Jags. Indy's defensive unit did a mostly decent job against Philly, except for Sproles, which no Indy D in the last ten years has been able to contain. They ran the ball effectively. Reggie Wayne is back and playing out of his mind (including fumble recoveries and tackling-- the dude does everything). The Jags are-- generously speaking-- modestly improved over last year and shouldn't stand a chance... but-- the stats are what the stats are. Road favorites in divisional games don't cover the number very well. I think this game is an exception, as had the Colts beat Philly, this line would be around 10, 10 1/2 points. I'm risking getting whacked by the same team in consecutive weeks, but I'm taking the Colts -6 1/2.
The big game, of course, is the rematch of The Big Game. Denver has a somewhat improved defense and a very, very bad taste in their mouths from the pasting they got in Manning's 3rd SB appearance. Here's some interesting research I did today: Peyton Manning has faced the team in the regular season that knocked him out of the playoffs in the previous year five times in his career. Manning is 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU in these situations. He is often knocked as the greatest regular season QB (a deliberatly back-handed compliment), but the stats are there-- Manning gets his revenge. Denver +5.
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