The 2014 NFL Season is here!

After countless annoying preseason games, a few decent college games to whet our collective appetites for football, and a lot of fanfare, the 2014 NFL season is here.  Finally.  More importantly, the quest to make money is upon us-- as the saying goes, "Money won is sweeter than money earned".  I ended up +7.2 units for the season last year, which I'll take any year-- any time you are in the black you should be happy. 

I have a few picks this week, though early season (and especially Week 1) can be dangerous.  One of the worst things a gambler can do is listen to the inane punditry on ESPN and sports radio-- who's going to be improved, who's over-rated, etc.  They rarely base their opinions on hard data and aren't terribly useful-- they are after all providing entertainment, not data-driven analysis that is useful. 

The first pick I'm making this week is a play on Green Bay.  I think the line should be around a field goal for this match up between two really good teams, so to get the Packers at +5 1/2 is value.  Superbowl winners often have slow starts, but that's really not what I'm counting on; the Packers will be ready and looking to prove last year's disappointment was an aberration.  The underwhelming season Green Bay had last year was mostly due to the significant injury at QB.  They really never recovered from the 4-0-1 stretch they had in the middle of season, but still managed to squeak into the playoffs, losing by a field goal to the 49ers.  The Packers will be looking to right the ship, and probably still remember the last time they played in Seattle-- the horrible officiating call that cost them the game.  I like the value on the dog here.  Green Bay +5 1/2.

I like the UNDER 53 in the Jacksonville - Philadelphia game.  53 points is a lot of points, especially when one of the teams is Jacksonville.  This is a team that scored over 20 points only three times last year; I don't expect a great deal from their offense in this game either.  Philly can score, but should also be able to control the clock late in the game if needed.  I just don't see 53 points in this game.  Jacksonville / Philadelphia UNDER 53.

I like the Cowboys as home dogs of 5 points-- SF is good, but Dallas has enough to hang in there, especially at home.  SF ground out short wins against top-tier teams last year, and it wouldn't surprise me if they won here.  I do, however, think 5 is a lot to cover on the road, especially with a team like Dallas that can really put up the points at time.  Dallas +5.


I almost pulled the trigger on the NE and MIA game; Miami has always played the Pats tough at home, and I'd be all over this if this were Week 3.  There's just too much that can go wrong the first week, and the professionalism of Pats' organization (something lacking in Miami last year) probably insulates them from some of the risk.  I'll stay off.  I'm also staying off two other "leans"-- the under in the Denver / Indy game and the Chargers making a close game out in the desert.  Interesting match-ups, but not enough to risk any capital this year.