Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Week 4 Picks

This board is tight-- I think most of the lines are right about where they should be, so if you are looking for value (and you always should be!) this is not the week. 

Interesting line movements, though-- SF began at -4 over Philly, and with everyone and his mother coming in on the Eagles, the line has moved to... SF -5 or -5 1/2.  I actually like SF in this spot-- desperate for a win to stay apace in the division, facing a hot team that eeked out victories from behind the first three weeks, the last two especially.  I really wanted this game around a field goal, but I'm going to play with Vegas on this one.  SF -5.

The other game Vegas is really pounding is Detroit at the Jets.  Coming off a win against Green Bay, the Lions should be an easy cash against the turnover prone Jets who just got destroyed on national television, right?  Geno Smith actually has a history of following up those multi-INT games with solid performances.  The Jets D is still pretty legit.  I'll hitch my wagon to the books on this one, too.  Jets +1.5.

I can get a total of 41 in the Carolina-Baltimore match up.  I like the under in that game; I look for the Carolina defense to get back on track and don't trust their offense to do much in this contest.  Under 41.



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