Week 6 Picks

This week doesn't present much in the way of great situational match-ups.  The 4-1 Cowboys are the largest dogs of the week, owing to the significant challenge of taking on the Seahawks in Seattle (more on that later).  Most of the divisional match-ups seem to be right where they should be; even the hapless Raiders started as less than a touchdown dogs (the line has been bet up to San Diego -7 1/2 at most windows).  Not much value in the spreads in most of these match-ups, to be sure.

The one I do like is the Cowboys as road underdogs of +8 1/2.  Seattle is coming off of a 10 point victory that should have been much, much bigger (Seattle's penalty problem was apparent in the tilt against Washington), and Russell Wilson did make some really amazing plays.  The penalties could have really cost them had Washington been able to cash in on some opportunities.  Playing from behind, Washington abandoned the run and just had to try to pass their way back into the game late.  As well as the Cowboys have run the ball, and as well as the Seahawks can run, I look for this game to be a physical slugfest.  I don't get the sense that we'll see Romo unchained and passing every play unless they get down big early.  I like this game to be a slog, run-center affair, which always tips the scale to a dog as big as the 'Boys.  Cowboys +8 1/2.

I like the under in the Giants-Eagles game.  The final scores for the Philly games have been a little misleading, owing to the special teams plays the last couple of weeks, which have definitely padded the scores.  This is a grudge match and one of the better rivalries in the NFL; I think both teams will be a little more cautious.  Though this series' history is full of shoot outs, I think this one is a down-tempo event that favors the under.  Giants-Eagles UNDER 50 1/2.

I also like the under in the Green Bay - Miami game.  The Green Bay defense has improved, holding the high-octane offenses of Chicago and Detroit under 20 points.  In the games since the Seattle drubbing, they've allowed 17 1/2 points per game.  Miami is inconsistent on offense, to say the least.  The path to the under probably involves Green Bay getting an early lead and eating clock with the run game.  Green Bay - Miami UNDER 49 1/2.