Three picks this week, and I'm playing some angles on some weird trends. Trends are funny things; there are statistics that bear out over a large sample size (things like elite QBs getting points, double digit divisional dogs, etc.), but variance is always possible. That's why a prudent gambler doesn't bet the farm on a single double digit divisional dog-- variance means that despite the greater possibility of a win based on historical data, the win is by no means a lock (anyone who has ever made a sports wager or played a 100.02% payback video poker machine can tell you that).
Buffalo's under is 6-1 this season. The Jets and Bills have been under 40 only once in their last four meetings-- the previous two years where Rex Ryan's defense has not been dominant. The Jets' defense still has an aura of being good, but really, they aren't anything special. This number is low, and I like the weird Buffalo trend to break this week. Surprisingly, the public is 62% on the under. Even better. Buffalo at NY Jets OVER 40.5.
I like the Saints as very short favorites at home. They've been dominant at home and need this game in the worst way. The Pack is due for a bad game, and the public is pounding them hard, to the tune of 80% or so. This is a good, even great, spot for Brees. Saints -1.
What can I say? I love double digit divisional dogs. I'm not playing any handicapping angle here-- I don't exactly know how a third string QB plays a divisional game against a really hot team and gets the cover (well, hey, Austin Davis...), but long term (and this year especially), the 4-D situation is a solid play. Washington +10.
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