Week 7 Picks

This is the biggest card to date this year; there are several solid situational plays with divisional dogs.  One of my guiding mantras for betting the NFL is about cashing in on parity-- teams are never as good as we think they are, and teams are never as bad as we think they are. 

My first play (getting ready to kick off in about an hour from writing this) is on the Jets +10.  Not only are the Jets double digit divisional dogs, but they've looked all shades of terrible at points this season.  Still, they managed to be within a score late last week against Denver.  On the other side, after a shaky start, the Pats are back to their winning ways.  Much as the Patriots have always thumped Buffalo, they have historically always had trouble in Miami and against the Jets-- these games are often very close.  So with 10 points, I'll take the Jets to keep it close (ish).  New York Jets +10.

What a difference one game makes.  The media have been in an uproar about the Seattle Seahawks after their loss to a very good Cowboys team.  The Seahawks are fine; they are listed as 7-point favorites most places, and I found them at a window for -6 1/2.  I like Seattle to bounce back and get back on track here.  Seattle -6 1/2.

Drew Brees with points.  Drew Brees with points off a bye.  Drew Brees with points off a bye against a Detroit teams sans Megatron (most likely). I always take QBs like Brees, Manning, Brady, etc. with points.  This is an easy play for me.  New Orleans +3.

After the debacle against the Eagles where they looked like Jacksonville Jaguars, I like the New York Giants to cover against the Cowboys as 6 1/2 point dogs.  This is a great situational play-- Cowboys (a team that hasn't dealt with success well in the Romo era) are coming off the emotional high of the biggest win of the past ten years, and the Giants got shut out in a nationally-televised game.  This is a great spot to back New York.  New York Giants +6 1/2.

San Fran and Denver is a really interesting matchup, and should be a good game.  Manning will be playing to tie and/or beat the TD record, and the SF defense would love to make sure that doesn't happen-- and they actually have a shot at that.  The Niners secondary is shutting down passing games with great success, and I like them to be jacked for this game.  Denying the home crowd the chance to see the TD record broken would be a huge win for them.  Combine that with Denver's modestly improved defense, and I'll take the under 50.  SF/Denver UNDER 50.