This is a tough week with not a lot of good angles. I was hoping to get a good number on the Chicago and Seattle game, but with Cutler out, I'll stay off the over (with Cutler, who slings it and puts up points especially late in games, I would have thought about a play on the over, given the Bears have no defense whatsoever). I want no part of the non-divisional double digit chalk out there-- New England and Seattle. The rest of the lines seem to be about where they should be.
The first pick I have is the Indianapolis - Tennessee game, on the over. The Colts offense has looked dismal, but now faces a middling defense after going up against two pretty stout units the last two weeks. At 0-2, Indy needs this game, and I think Luck will be sharp and take care of the ball against a defense he's familiar with. At the same time, there will be opportunities for Mariota in the pass and the option game, so I think they will be able to score against what is usually one of the doormat defenses of the league. The number is depressed because of the Colts' offensive woes, so there is value in the 45 number. Colts/Titans OVER 45.
I've made two plays essentially against Philly this season (the under in Week 1 and Dallas in Week 2), and now I'm flipping around. This is a great situational play-- the Jets come off a huge win on national TV, their defense looked great against an offense that was in disarray, and their offense moved the ball against a bad defense. Philly is 0-2, Chip is under fire, they can't run the ball, etc., etc. I've said it a million times-- no team in the NFL is ever as bad or as good as advertised. The line has reflected the sentiments above about the respective teams, and has shown a huge move from Philly as 2 1/2 point chalk to 2 1/2 point dogs. This is a solid situational play. Eagles +2 1/2.
Wednesday, September 23, 2015
Week 2 Recap
Week 2 started strong, going 2-1 in the first three games, but a 1-2 back half made it a marginal 3-3 loser of a week.
Sometimes sports bettors get in trouble thinking about the X's and O's on the field; the technical game analysis can often lead one to make some bad plays. This happens especially with injured high-profile players. The line usually over compensates for a single player (or two), along the lines of "how could they possibly compete without X player?". Other times, bettors get caught up in trends and ignore some glaring techincal analysis that she or he should have considered. This week, the pick on the Colts was clearly the latter. Andrew Luck has been so good ATS after a loss (in fact, the only loss ATS he's had coming off a loss was ... well, last year in Week 2 against the Eagles), that I lost sight of the terrible situation at corner on that team. They were one more injury away from grabbing some guy from the stands to play in the secondary. Not having anyone capable in coverage was killer; suddenly the Fitzy to Decker combo looked like Young to Rice all night. Of course, the secondary didn't turn the ball over 5 times.... miraculously, the Colts were still in this game late in the 4th, despite the turnovers. Luckily for the Colts, who will likely need time to get their offense (and especially, offensive line) to gel, they play in the worst division in the NFL (yeah, worse than the NFC South this year).
The Cowboys game was a solid winner, and Philly looks to be in some serious trouble. But the easiest winner was Tampa Bay, who won SU as a ten point dog and led the game pretty much wire-to-wire. You got to love those double digit divisional dogs (now 1-0 ATS and 1-0 SU this year).
The Detroit pick was just plain old bad capping, and the Seattle pick was a close one. Wilson giving the ball away against Rodgers sealed their doom, even as it looked like it would go down to the wire on field goals for a good while in the third quarter.
Elsewhere around the league, Vegas got creamed on the New England game. That had trap game written all over it, but the public bit on the Pats and were rewarded with a win. But Vegas won pretty big on the Raiders, Washington, and the Jags. Baltimore looks to be in some trouble; that defense has been on the decline for years, and the injury to Suggs seems to be as demoralizing as it is tactically problematic.
NFL 2015 Week 2: 3-3
NFL 2015 Season Total: 4-4
Sometimes sports bettors get in trouble thinking about the X's and O's on the field; the technical game analysis can often lead one to make some bad plays. This happens especially with injured high-profile players. The line usually over compensates for a single player (or two), along the lines of "how could they possibly compete without X player?". Other times, bettors get caught up in trends and ignore some glaring techincal analysis that she or he should have considered. This week, the pick on the Colts was clearly the latter. Andrew Luck has been so good ATS after a loss (in fact, the only loss ATS he's had coming off a loss was ... well, last year in Week 2 against the Eagles), that I lost sight of the terrible situation at corner on that team. They were one more injury away from grabbing some guy from the stands to play in the secondary. Not having anyone capable in coverage was killer; suddenly the Fitzy to Decker combo looked like Young to Rice all night. Of course, the secondary didn't turn the ball over 5 times.... miraculously, the Colts were still in this game late in the 4th, despite the turnovers. Luckily for the Colts, who will likely need time to get their offense (and especially, offensive line) to gel, they play in the worst division in the NFL (yeah, worse than the NFC South this year).
The Cowboys game was a solid winner, and Philly looks to be in some serious trouble. But the easiest winner was Tampa Bay, who won SU as a ten point dog and led the game pretty much wire-to-wire. You got to love those double digit divisional dogs (now 1-0 ATS and 1-0 SU this year).
The Detroit pick was just plain old bad capping, and the Seattle pick was a close one. Wilson giving the ball away against Rodgers sealed their doom, even as it looked like it would go down to the wire on field goals for a good while in the third quarter.
Elsewhere around the league, Vegas got creamed on the New England game. That had trap game written all over it, but the public bit on the Pats and were rewarded with a win. But Vegas won pretty big on the Raiders, Washington, and the Jags. Baltimore looks to be in some trouble; that defense has been on the decline for years, and the injury to Suggs seems to be as demoralizing as it is tactically problematic.
NFL 2015 Week 2: 3-3
NFL 2015 Season Total: 4-4
Wednesday, September 16, 2015
Week 2 Picks
We have some good looks for Week 2, based on strong trends / situational plays and overreactions to Week 1 games. This has turned out to be a bigger card that usual for Week 2, but I think there is some real value to be found.
Let's talk Thursday-- the Chiefs win big on the road (though had really a very, very poor offensive second half), and the Broncos grit out a tough win against a quality opponent at home. The talk is all about Peyton Manning and how he is--after one game-- washed up (got to love the talking heads). This is all well and good-- getting Denver +3 is a good thing. This should be a close, defensive, divisional game, and I like Denver to keep it within a field goal, if not win it outright. Denver +3.
Speaking of divisional games, I'll take the double digit divisional dog-- the Bucs. Sure, the looked awful, and a thinking man should just light his money on fire rather than lay it with Jameis Winston, right? Well, in the NFL, no team is ever as good or as bad as advertised, and divisional games are usually much, much closer than expected by the betting public. Last year, double digit divisional dogs were 7-2 ATS, with 4 of those wins SU. Tampa Bay +11.
Detroit at Minnesota is an interesting game; Detroit's second-half meltdown in San Diego really hurt their credibility it seems. Minnesota got manhandled in Santa Clara on Monday night and still post as 3 point favorites. I'll take the visiting team to bounce back and play enough defense to edge out the home team in this divisional matchup-- Detroit +3.
Dallas is a solid team, and despite needing a boneheaded mistake from the Giants to win on Sunday, I think the Cowboys will be just fine. The Eagles are 5 1/2 point favorites, and I think the line is overplaying the Dez Bryant injury. I will take 5 1/2 points in this one-- Dallas +5 1/2.
Seattle is also a team that is getting some blowback from Week 1. That's fine-- I think the four points they are getting at Lambeau are pretty good. This should be a tight game, and I like the Seahawks to get back on top and get Green Bay's goat once again. Seattle +4.
The last one-- Andrew Luck after a loss is money ATS. Colts -7.
This is a huge card; I can't remember the last time I had six games, but I really like the angles involved here.
Let's talk Thursday-- the Chiefs win big on the road (though had really a very, very poor offensive second half), and the Broncos grit out a tough win against a quality opponent at home. The talk is all about Peyton Manning and how he is--after one game-- washed up (got to love the talking heads). This is all well and good-- getting Denver +3 is a good thing. This should be a close, defensive, divisional game, and I like Denver to keep it within a field goal, if not win it outright. Denver +3.
Speaking of divisional games, I'll take the double digit divisional dog-- the Bucs. Sure, the looked awful, and a thinking man should just light his money on fire rather than lay it with Jameis Winston, right? Well, in the NFL, no team is ever as good or as bad as advertised, and divisional games are usually much, much closer than expected by the betting public. Last year, double digit divisional dogs were 7-2 ATS, with 4 of those wins SU. Tampa Bay +11.
Detroit at Minnesota is an interesting game; Detroit's second-half meltdown in San Diego really hurt their credibility it seems. Minnesota got manhandled in Santa Clara on Monday night and still post as 3 point favorites. I'll take the visiting team to bounce back and play enough defense to edge out the home team in this divisional matchup-- Detroit +3.
Dallas is a solid team, and despite needing a boneheaded mistake from the Giants to win on Sunday, I think the Cowboys will be just fine. The Eagles are 5 1/2 point favorites, and I think the line is overplaying the Dez Bryant injury. I will take 5 1/2 points in this one-- Dallas +5 1/2.
Seattle is also a team that is getting some blowback from Week 1. That's fine-- I think the four points they are getting at Lambeau are pretty good. This should be a tight game, and I like the Seahawks to get back on top and get Green Bay's goat once again. Seattle +4.
The last one-- Andrew Luck after a loss is money ATS. Colts -7.
This is a huge card; I can't remember the last time I had six games, but I really like the angles involved here.
Week 1 Recap
After all the fiddling and waiting with the line on the Saints game, it was all for naught anyway. The Saints couldn't keep it close enough in the end, even though they had some good looks and chances to win it late. Settling for those two field goals was their undoing, as well as a particularly untimely penalty. Carson Palmer looked great-- you got to hand it to him, after all the injuries and all these years, the guy is playing some really good football.
A closer call than I expected on the Eagles - Falcons total. I still cashed the under, but it was played a little too closely for my liking. Since I at time felt very uneasy at the prospect of starting a new season 0-2, I'll be glad for the split, 1-1 in Week 1.
We started out with a push on Thursday night; the Steelers got the backdoor push late (though, some backing the Steelers late on Thursday were able to get that all-important half point to cash the ticket at +7.5). I especially appreciated Al Michaels' not-so-subtle "ooohs and ahhs" comment when he realize the Steelers had just hit the push. Of course, the big story was another Pats controversy with the headset malfunctions. Any other team and it would have been a non-story, but coming off of more than a decade of Spygate and Deflategate-type shenanigans, it certainly adds fuel to the Pats-hating fire.
Kansas City looked great for the first half; they were pretty much offensively dead in the second half, but had built up a big enough lead to outlast the Texans in the second half. Alex Smith makes good decisions, if not explosive plays. KC could be one of those teams that hangs around and has a chance in about any game, and might just be the best of that division. San Diego looked pretty good at times, but the Chargers will stumble at some point, if history is any guide.
My call to stay off the Washington game was the right one. Even as Washington was pretty competitive for most of the game, they blew the cover late. This had more to do with the usual kind of poor decisions and bad plays we have come to expect from them than anything stellar happening with the Dolphins. I'm still not convinced Tannehill is a QB they can make the playoffs with-- beating the bottom feeder of the NFC East isn't doing much to convince me otherwise.
Oakland, which had made strides in the latter half of last year and is now helmed by the competent Jack del Rio, just looked like the Raiders of the last decade. Cincinnati was the only AFC North team to get a win, but it was likely more about Oakland than the Bengals.
Kudos to Marcus Mariota for making the Bucs look really, really stupid. They took Jameis Winston over him, and Mariota shined bright while Winston threw a pick-6. Mariota could have some early success before there is a lot of tape on him in an NFL context; the sorry defense of the Colts especially could have some trouble there.
Speaking of the Colts, for a team with aspirations to a Super Bowl, they have some serious problems. There has been a shift in how the franchise operates; for years, they were among the best at developing their drafted talent and not making a lot of huge trades and free agent signings. That has changed, and I'm not sure it has had the desired effect. The trade last year for Mark Ingram was a bust, and additions of Frank Gore and Andre Johnson seem dubious at the moment. Frank Gore is a great back, but you have to have an O-line that can rip open some holes. This is one place where Dallas made the smart move-- banking on the idea that their stellar line could make holes and not needed a pricey back to make it work. But the real problem with the Colts is-- and really, always has been-- the defense. It has to get better for them to be competitive.
And speaking of defense, Rex Ryan can certainly coach a defense. I'll be very interested to see if he can still keep games close with New England with his new team, as he generally always did with his (often less talented) Jets teams the last few years. Bufflo is used to get manhandled by the Pats, but Coach Ryan has a track record of playing them tight. I'm not fooled by the Buffalo offense, though-- putting up points on the Colts D is not that hard by any stretch.
It's odd that Peyton Manning didn't look like his unstoppable usual regular-season self, yet the Broncos look like a team better suited for the playoffs this year. The defense looked much-improved, and the running game gained a little more traction. A little less flash and a little more grit-- that was a gutsy, grinder of a win against Baltimore. The Thursday match-up with the Chiefs could be an interesting one.
The Giants - Cowboys game was, well, sort of a weird yet true-to-form tilt in this series. Dallas really, really tried to give this one away, and the Giants just didn't seem to want to really take it. The throw on 3rd down will be debated all week (perhaps as much as the baffling decision-making in the Seahawks - Rams game), but props to Romo and Dunbar for getting down the field so fast to give Witten a chance at the game winner. Dallas was lucky in a way they usually aren't; the Giants once again start the season with a sour taste in their mouths.
NFL 2015 Week 1: 1-1
NFL 2015 Season Total: 1-1
Sunday, September 13, 2015
Saints...
... waited too long and the line went the other way. Had to go with +2 1/2 at -110. I should have just paid the -120 at +3, but that's what happens sometimes.
Saints + 2 1/2. Kick off in 1 minute!
Saints + 2 1/2. Kick off in 1 minute!
Thursday, September 10, 2015
Finally here-- NFL 2015
After the requisite slog through the summer and preseason, the NFL juggernaut gets started tonight with the recently reinstated Tom Brady opening their Super Bowl defense against the always formidible Steelers. As excited as I am for football season to be back, Week 1 is not presenting itself with a whole lot of value opportunities.
The biggest line move was the swing in the Minnesota - SF game. The 49ers started out as 3 1/2 point home chalk, but after the disasters off-the-field, the Harbaugh-less, Gore-less, Smith-less, Borland-less, Willis-less squad is now a 2 1/2 point home dog-- that's a pretty big swing. There's still a lot of talent on that team, but it could also be this season's hot mess. Minnesota is an improving team, now reunited with their star running back. Still, too many questions to back either side.
Since looking at the money is always a good idea, I was a little shocked to see that one of the most lopsided games of the week is Miami and Washington. The Fish are 3 1/2 point road favorites, and are getting over 90% of the money. Washington has been a trainwreck, sure, but Kirk Cousins is an upgrade from RGIII. This might have to do with the "Suh effect"; Miami has had a pretty solid defense of late, and adding a defensive (and expensive) superstar to intimidate QBs is an upgrade. I just don't trust Ryan Tanehill under center with my money. I'll stay off this game, but I'd be the recipient of a minor shock if Miami covers this spread.
The other lopsided game is Philly at Atlanta. I get it; the Eagles have a much-ballyhooed offense and Atlanta has underachieved the past two seasons. But Matt Ryan can look like John Elway at home (and Rex Grossman on the road), making a road trip to Georgia a possibly tough trip. What I do like in this game isn't the spread, but the total. Right now I can get 56 1/2 -- I'll take a Week 1 under play on that truckload of points. Philadelphia/Atlanta UNDER 56 1/2.
It's very tempting to take the Giants-- who play usually very well in Jerry Jones' house-- as road dogs in a divisional game, but I was hoping to get at least 7 1/2 points here. At 6, it's a no play for me. The other divisional games are actually about where they should be (Seattle and St. Louis, Green Bay and Chicago).
This week is hard because of so many match ups between middling teams that don't regularly play oneanother-- Carolina and Jacksonville, Detroit and San Diego, Tennessee and Tampa Bay, Cleveland and the Jets, etc. Gun to my head, I'd take the underdog in just about any of them, but Week 1 is a time for discretion and smart plays. As the old gambler's mantra goes, "Not winning is better than losing".
The only other game I am playing on is New Orleans at Arizona. As bad as the Saints can be on the road, they underacheived as much as Arizona overacheived last year. I'll take the Saints +3, but I will wait a few days to lock it in to see if I can get it at -110 instead of the current -120. I'll still play at -120, though-- solid play.
The biggest line move was the swing in the Minnesota - SF game. The 49ers started out as 3 1/2 point home chalk, but after the disasters off-the-field, the Harbaugh-less, Gore-less, Smith-less, Borland-less, Willis-less squad is now a 2 1/2 point home dog-- that's a pretty big swing. There's still a lot of talent on that team, but it could also be this season's hot mess. Minnesota is an improving team, now reunited with their star running back. Still, too many questions to back either side.
Since looking at the money is always a good idea, I was a little shocked to see that one of the most lopsided games of the week is Miami and Washington. The Fish are 3 1/2 point road favorites, and are getting over 90% of the money. Washington has been a trainwreck, sure, but Kirk Cousins is an upgrade from RGIII. This might have to do with the "Suh effect"; Miami has had a pretty solid defense of late, and adding a defensive (and expensive) superstar to intimidate QBs is an upgrade. I just don't trust Ryan Tanehill under center with my money. I'll stay off this game, but I'd be the recipient of a minor shock if Miami covers this spread.
The other lopsided game is Philly at Atlanta. I get it; the Eagles have a much-ballyhooed offense and Atlanta has underachieved the past two seasons. But Matt Ryan can look like John Elway at home (and Rex Grossman on the road), making a road trip to Georgia a possibly tough trip. What I do like in this game isn't the spread, but the total. Right now I can get 56 1/2 -- I'll take a Week 1 under play on that truckload of points. Philadelphia/Atlanta UNDER 56 1/2.
It's very tempting to take the Giants-- who play usually very well in Jerry Jones' house-- as road dogs in a divisional game, but I was hoping to get at least 7 1/2 points here. At 6, it's a no play for me. The other divisional games are actually about where they should be (Seattle and St. Louis, Green Bay and Chicago).
This week is hard because of so many match ups between middling teams that don't regularly play oneanother-- Carolina and Jacksonville, Detroit and San Diego, Tennessee and Tampa Bay, Cleveland and the Jets, etc. Gun to my head, I'd take the underdog in just about any of them, but Week 1 is a time for discretion and smart plays. As the old gambler's mantra goes, "Not winning is better than losing".
The only other game I am playing on is New Orleans at Arizona. As bad as the Saints can be on the road, they underacheived as much as Arizona overacheived last year. I'll take the Saints +3, but I will wait a few days to lock it in to see if I can get it at -110 instead of the current -120. I'll still play at -120, though-- solid play.
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