Week 2 Picks

We have some good looks for Week 2, based on strong trends / situational plays and overreactions to Week 1 games.  This has turned out to be a bigger card that usual for Week 2, but I think there is some real value to be found.

Let's talk Thursday-- the Chiefs win big on the road (though had really a very, very poor offensive second half), and the Broncos grit out a tough win against a quality opponent at home.  The talk is all about Peyton Manning and how he is--after one game-- washed up (got to love the talking heads).  This is all well and good-- getting Denver +3 is a good thing.  This should be a close, defensive, divisional game, and I like Denver to keep it within a field goal, if not win it outright.  Denver +3.

Speaking of divisional games, I'll take the double digit divisional dog-- the Bucs.  Sure, the looked awful, and a thinking man should just light his money on fire rather than lay it with Jameis Winston, right?  Well, in the NFL, no team is ever as good or as bad as advertised, and divisional games are usually much, much closer than expected by the betting public.  Last year, double digit divisional dogs were 7-2 ATS, with 4 of those wins SU.  Tampa Bay +11.

Detroit at Minnesota is an interesting game; Detroit's second-half meltdown in San Diego really hurt their credibility it seems.  Minnesota got manhandled in Santa Clara on Monday night and still post as 3 point favorites.  I'll take the visiting team to bounce back and play enough defense to edge out the home team in this divisional matchup-- Detroit +3.

Dallas is a solid team, and despite needing a boneheaded mistake from the Giants to win on Sunday, I think the Cowboys will be just fine.  The Eagles are 5 1/2 point favorites, and I think the line is overplaying the Dez Bryant injury.  I will take 5 1/2 points in this one-- Dallas +5 1/2.

Seattle is also a team that is getting some blowback from Week 1.  That's fine-- I think the four points they are getting at Lambeau are pretty good.  This should be a tight game, and I like the Seahawks to get back on top and get Green Bay's goat once again.  Seattle +4.

The last one-- Andrew Luck after a loss is money ATS.  Colts -7.

This is a huge card; I can't remember the last time I had six games, but I really like the angles involved here.