This is a tough week with not a lot of good angles. I was hoping to get a good number on the Chicago and Seattle game, but with Cutler out, I'll stay off the over (with Cutler, who slings it and puts up points especially late in games, I would have thought about a play on the over, given the Bears have no defense whatsoever). I want no part of the non-divisional double digit chalk out there-- New England and Seattle. The rest of the lines seem to be about where they should be.
The first pick I have is the Indianapolis - Tennessee game, on the over. The Colts offense has looked dismal, but now faces a middling defense after going up against two pretty stout units the last two weeks. At 0-2, Indy needs this game, and I think Luck will be sharp and take care of the ball against a defense he's familiar with. At the same time, there will be opportunities for Mariota in the pass and the option game, so I think they will be able to score against what is usually one of the doormat defenses of the league. The number is depressed because of the Colts' offensive woes, so there is value in the 45 number. Colts/Titans OVER 45.
I've made two plays essentially against Philly this season (the under in Week 1 and Dallas in Week 2), and now I'm flipping around. This is a great situational play-- the Jets come off a huge win on national TV, their defense looked great against an offense that was in disarray, and their offense moved the ball against a bad defense. Philly is 0-2, Chip is under fire, they can't run the ball, etc., etc. I've said it a million times-- no team in the NFL is ever as bad or as good as advertised. The line has reflected the sentiments above about the respective teams, and has shown a huge move from Philly as 2 1/2 point chalk to 2 1/2 point dogs. This is a solid situational play. Eagles +2 1/2.
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