Week 2 Recap

Week 2 started strong, going 2-1 in the first three games, but a 1-2 back half made it a marginal 3-3 loser of a week. 

Sometimes sports bettors get in trouble thinking about the X's and O's on the field; the technical game analysis can often lead one to make some bad plays.  This happens especially with injured high-profile players.  The line usually over compensates for a single player (or two), along the lines of "how could they possibly compete without X player?".  Other times, bettors get caught up in trends and ignore some glaring techincal analysis that she or he should have considered.  This week, the pick on the Colts was clearly the latter.  Andrew Luck has been so good ATS after a loss (in fact, the only loss ATS he's had coming off a loss was ... well, last year in Week 2 against the Eagles), that I lost sight of the terrible situation at corner on that team.  They were one more injury away from grabbing some guy from the stands to play in the secondary.  Not having anyone capable in coverage was killer; suddenly the Fitzy to Decker combo looked like Young to Rice all night.  Of course, the secondary didn't turn the ball over 5 times.... miraculously, the Colts were still in this game late in the 4th, despite the turnovers.  Luckily for the Colts, who will likely need time to get their offense (and especially, offensive line) to gel, they play in the worst division in the NFL (yeah, worse than the NFC South this year).

The Cowboys game was a solid winner, and Philly looks to be in some serious trouble.  But the easiest winner was Tampa Bay, who won SU as a ten point dog and led the game pretty much wire-to-wire.  You got to love those double digit divisional dogs (now 1-0 ATS and 1-0 SU this year).

The Detroit pick was just plain old bad capping, and the Seattle pick was a close one.  Wilson giving the ball away against Rodgers sealed their doom, even as it looked like it would go down to the wire on field goals for a good while in the third quarter.

Elsewhere around the league, Vegas got creamed on the New England game.  That had trap game written all over it, but the public bit on the Pats and were rewarded with a win.  But Vegas won pretty big on the Raiders, Washington, and the Jags.  Baltimore looks to be in some trouble; that defense has been on the decline for years, and the injury to Suggs seems to be as demoralizing as it is tactically problematic. 

NFL 2015 Week 2: 3-3
NFL 2015 Season Total: 4-4