After the requisite slog through the summer and preseason, the NFL juggernaut gets started tonight with the recently reinstated Tom Brady opening their Super Bowl defense against the always formidible Steelers. As excited as I am for football season to be back, Week 1 is not presenting itself with a whole lot of value opportunities.
The biggest line move was the swing in the Minnesota - SF game. The 49ers started out as 3 1/2 point home chalk, but after the disasters off-the-field, the Harbaugh-less, Gore-less, Smith-less, Borland-less, Willis-less squad is now a 2 1/2 point home dog-- that's a pretty big swing. There's still a lot of talent on that team, but it could also be this season's hot mess. Minnesota is an improving team, now reunited with their star running back. Still, too many questions to back either side.
Since looking at the money is always a good idea, I was a little shocked to see that one of the most lopsided games of the week is Miami and Washington. The Fish are 3 1/2 point road favorites, and are getting over 90% of the money. Washington has been a trainwreck, sure, but Kirk Cousins is an upgrade from RGIII. This might have to do with the "Suh effect"; Miami has had a pretty solid defense of late, and adding a defensive (and expensive) superstar to intimidate QBs is an upgrade. I just don't trust Ryan Tanehill under center with my money. I'll stay off this game, but I'd be the recipient of a minor shock if Miami covers this spread.
The other lopsided game is Philly at Atlanta. I get it; the Eagles have a much-ballyhooed offense and Atlanta has underachieved the past two seasons. But Matt Ryan can look like John Elway at home (and Rex Grossman on the road), making a road trip to Georgia a possibly tough trip. What I do like in this game isn't the spread, but the total. Right now I can get 56 1/2 -- I'll take a Week 1 under play on that truckload of points. Philadelphia/Atlanta UNDER 56 1/2.
It's very tempting to take the Giants-- who play usually very well in Jerry Jones' house-- as road dogs in a divisional game, but I was hoping to get at least 7 1/2 points here. At 6, it's a no play for me. The other divisional games are actually about where they should be (Seattle and St. Louis, Green Bay and Chicago).
This week is hard because of so many match ups between middling teams that don't regularly play oneanother-- Carolina and Jacksonville, Detroit and San Diego, Tennessee and Tampa Bay, Cleveland and the Jets, etc. Gun to my head, I'd take the underdog in just about any of them, but Week 1 is a time for discretion and smart plays. As the old gambler's mantra goes, "Not winning is better than losing".
The only other game I am playing on is New Orleans at Arizona. As bad as the Saints can be on the road, they underacheived as much as Arizona overacheived last year. I'll take the Saints +3, but I will wait a few days to lock it in to see if I can get it at -110 instead of the current -120. I'll still play at -120, though-- solid play.
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