Week 2 Recap

Sometimes you are on the right side and still lose, and sometimes you are on the wrong side and still win.  The Eagles-Colts tilt on Monday Night was the former for sure-- a whole lot of unlikely events had to happen in a very short span of time to blow my Colts pick. 

Unlikely Thing #1:  Chuck and Pep have a collective dumbass attack on the sideline and decide not to run the ball for the first down, knowing that worst case they could take the 3 points from a Vinatieri field goal to go up by 10 points with 5:08 left... on a night when the Colts could actually run the ball effectively against the Philly stop unit.

Unlikely Thing #2:  Andrew Luck throws an interception trying to convert on a play that should have been a running play (see above)

Unlikely Thing #3:  Related to #2-- this should never have been a pick.  Refs miss a painfully obvious call on Boykin.

Unlikely Thing #4:  Refs miss an obvious call (see #3) then randomly compensate by calling a highly questionable horsecollar tackle on Landry, which gives the Eagles the first down and 15 yards.  Sproles awesomeness happens for 51 yards, and yeah, well, there you have it.

So a perfect storm of suck can really derail an otherwise solid play.  Over the course of the season, you are going to have them.  It happens.  Taking the long view over 5 months of the NFL, these kinds of losses will be cancelled out by a few wins the you edge out when you make a bad call.  So we regroup.  It was still a profitable week, going 2-1 (or, 2-1-0-1 if you want to use wins/losses/ties/moral victories [which don't pay as well]).  That puts me at 3-3 for the year, but on the right track.

Speaking of getting a call wrong and getting bailed out..  remember when I didn't take the Steelers because I couldn't get them at +3 and took the under instead?  The fact that the line was Steelers +2 1/2 saved me a loss there; the under was a pretty easy cash. 

The KC-Denver game was just as expected-- huge divisional dog on the road covers the spread.  I was a little worried when Jamal Charles went out early, but the Chiefs hung tough and took Denver to the wire. 

I'll take a winning week any week, even a 2-1.  

NFL 2014 Week 2: 2-1
NFL 2014 Season Total: 3-3

Week 2 Picks

Time to rebound...  I wish I had the Steelers at +3.  I'm not playing it at +2 1/2, just too risky.  This is a series I generally always take the dog at a field goal.  This series is almost always decided by a field goal or less-- 10 of 13 now in the Flacco - Big Ben era.  All the off field stuff and the 1/2 point are making me stay off this one.  I wouldn't be surprised if the Steelers win this outright, but I'm just going to play safe and stay away.

I do, however, like the total here.  The last time these two teams scored over 43 points was in the playoffs for the 2010 season (game played in January 2011).  I can get 45 now, so I'm taking the UNDER 45 in this game.

One trend I love is playing double digit divisional dogs.  Divisional games are always closer than the public thinks, and Vegas has no problem printing tickets for double digit chalk all weekend.  For that reason, I'm taking the now-left-for-dead Kansas City at +12 1/2 against Denver. 


Andrew Luck is money ATS after a loss.  I'll take the Colts to outlast the Eagles at home in a potential shootout.  Colts -3.

I'm interested to see what happens with the Pats and Vikings game.  The line movement is pretty interesting, as the line has moved from Pats -5 to Pats -3.5 with nearly 2/3 of the money on New England.  If we had more like 80% on the Pats, I'd bite on the Vikings.  This is one to watch on Sunday morning when all the tourist money comes into Vegas...