Two plays to finish the year-- first is the strong trend of Andrew Luck ATS after a loss. Colts -7.
The other is on the Pats-- after a close shave against the Jets, I like them to get into playoff form and do their usual job on the Bills, who despite being competitive much of the year, still look hapless against New England. Patriots -6.
Sunday, December 28, 2014
Sunday, December 21, 2014
Arizona +9 is a go!
Was hoping to get 9 1/2 or 10 but Arizona is coming down ... I can still get +9, so
I'll lock in there.
I'll lock in there.
Thursday, December 18, 2014
Week 16 Picks
The first play I'm making this week is the UNDER 56 in the Indy-Dallas game. This should be a game where the run game figures prominently. Indy has been running the ball with Dan Herron a little better as of late, and Dallas, well, you know their success running. Whether or not Murray plays is of little consequence; the offensive line will still be able to open up holes in the Indy D for the capable back ups to get yards in chunks. I like this to stay under the number week. Cowboys-Colts UNDER 56.
I can still find Washington +8 1/2, and I'll take it. The Eagles aren't in a position to blow out anyone, even the (at times) completely woeful Washington squad. A divisonal home dog of more than a touchdown, I like Jay Gruden's team to cover here. Washington +8 1/2.
Double digit divisional dogs-- Jets +10 1/2. This one is a bit dicey, but I'll play on the strong trend. Jets +10 1/2.
I can find a +9 on Arizona, but I'll hold off until I can get +10. I'm not punching a ticket just yet, but I'll hit on it if it gets to +10. If on Sunday I can't get +10 I'll play the +9, but I'll be patient and let the public bet up the Cards to get double digits. Conditional play: Arizona +9 if and only if +10 is not available prior to kick off. If the +9 is gone at that time, no play.
I can still find Washington +8 1/2, and I'll take it. The Eagles aren't in a position to blow out anyone, even the (at times) completely woeful Washington squad. A divisonal home dog of more than a touchdown, I like Jay Gruden's team to cover here. Washington +8 1/2.
Double digit divisional dogs-- Jets +10 1/2. This one is a bit dicey, but I'll play on the strong trend. Jets +10 1/2.
I can find a +9 on Arizona, but I'll hold off until I can get +10. I'm not punching a ticket just yet, but I'll hit on it if it gets to +10. If on Sunday I can't get +10 I'll play the +9, but I'll be patient and let the public bet up the Cards to get double digits. Conditional play: Arizona +9 if and only if +10 is not available prior to kick off. If the +9 is gone at that time, no play.
Week 15 Recap
Not winning is better than losing, so a 1-0-1 week is a good week. The Cowboys were SU winners as 3 1/2 point dogs in Philly, in a game that went much as I had expected. The 49ers were competitive for much of the tilt in Seattle, but ended up pushing the number. Not a bad week.
Elsewhere in the week, the sharps were right on Buffalo-- Green Bay was one of the those dangerous road favorites to which I alluded. The big road chalk winner was New Orleans, who put the wood to a reeling, dysfunctional and altogether horrible Chicago Bears squad. New Orleans is now in the driver's seat in the well, reeling, dysfunctional and altogether horrible NFC South. But don't count Drew Brees and company out-- if they win the division, they get a home playoff game and in a great twist of NFL irony, will probably win it.
The books made some money on the Bengals, or rather, beat down the folks that pounded the Browns on behalf of Johnny Football. The Browns and Green Bay were winners for the books, who took it on the chin with the widely bet Pats and Broncos covering.
New England tightened its grip on the AFC with a second half blowout of the Dolphins-- it looks (barring exceptional things happening over the next two weeks) that the road to the Superbowl in the AFC will go through Foxboro. This would seem to be bad news for the Broncos, but the emergent MO for Denver (playing better defense and running the ball, relying less on Peyton's arm, grinding out close wins) is better suited for late season, cold weather road trips in the playoffs. The recent string of games for the Broncos could be a late season slump or a calculated reorienting to playoff-style game plans. This will be interesting to watch as it unfolds.
Indianapolis clinched the AFC South and got the cover, albeit by a half point. Luck hasn't played great, and the T.Y. Hilton apparent concussion is a huge issue for them. Consistency and turnovers have been problems.
Arizona got the win as an underdog to the suddenly hot Rams, in a field goal Thursday night affair. The Cards are such an interesting story, now down to their third string QB and getting ready to face Seattle. That seems like a tall order for a team limping down the stretch, but they've managed to find the next man up all year. Certainly this rivals the NFC East for the most interesting story line heading in the NFC heading into the last few weeks of the season.
So we are back at .500 for a moderate (-2.3 unit) loss on the season thus far. We'll see if we can get some value plays in the final two weeks and get even.
NFL 2014 Week 15: 1-0-1
NFL 2014 Season Total: 23-23-1
Elsewhere in the week, the sharps were right on Buffalo-- Green Bay was one of the those dangerous road favorites to which I alluded. The big road chalk winner was New Orleans, who put the wood to a reeling, dysfunctional and altogether horrible Chicago Bears squad. New Orleans is now in the driver's seat in the well, reeling, dysfunctional and altogether horrible NFC South. But don't count Drew Brees and company out-- if they win the division, they get a home playoff game and in a great twist of NFL irony, will probably win it.
The books made some money on the Bengals, or rather, beat down the folks that pounded the Browns on behalf of Johnny Football. The Browns and Green Bay were winners for the books, who took it on the chin with the widely bet Pats and Broncos covering.
New England tightened its grip on the AFC with a second half blowout of the Dolphins-- it looks (barring exceptional things happening over the next two weeks) that the road to the Superbowl in the AFC will go through Foxboro. This would seem to be bad news for the Broncos, but the emergent MO for Denver (playing better defense and running the ball, relying less on Peyton's arm, grinding out close wins) is better suited for late season, cold weather road trips in the playoffs. The recent string of games for the Broncos could be a late season slump or a calculated reorienting to playoff-style game plans. This will be interesting to watch as it unfolds.
Indianapolis clinched the AFC South and got the cover, albeit by a half point. Luck hasn't played great, and the T.Y. Hilton apparent concussion is a huge issue for them. Consistency and turnovers have been problems.
Arizona got the win as an underdog to the suddenly hot Rams, in a field goal Thursday night affair. The Cards are such an interesting story, now down to their third string QB and getting ready to face Seattle. That seems like a tall order for a team limping down the stretch, but they've managed to find the next man up all year. Certainly this rivals the NFC East for the most interesting story line heading in the NFC heading into the last few weeks of the season.
So we are back at .500 for a moderate (-2.3 unit) loss on the season thus far. We'll see if we can get some value plays in the final two weeks and get even.
NFL 2014 Week 15: 1-0-1
NFL 2014 Season Total: 23-23-1
Tuesday, December 9, 2014
Week 15 Picks
The lines are tight this week; lots of games the saavy player will stay away from (like the Futility Bowl between the Jets and Titans) or dangerous road favorites.
Still there are two games I like that I think have some value. First off, the Niners are in a great spot. Having just been humiliated by the Raiders, they have to go to Seattle and play the red hot Seahawks in the hardest venue in pro football over the past few years. Seattle by 20, right? Not usually-- the dictum that teams are never as good or as bad as perception is usually money, and the Niners are now double digit divisional dogs. Great situational play. Niners +10.
The other team I like is Dallas as 3 1/2 point road dogs at the Eagles. The NFC East has a long tradition of road teams winning these matchups, as well as splits of the season series. After the pasting at home on Thanksgiving, I think the Cowboys get the win (but a three point loss on a FG would be just fine by me as well). The Eagles-- despite Sanchez looking decent at time-- are not the same offense without Nick Foles, and now with a little more tape on the former USC standout, I expect Dallas to get enough pressure to force a turnover or two. This is a must-win for both teams, and I actually like the Cowboys to shake off their December woes and get the W. Cowboys + 3 1/2.
Still there are two games I like that I think have some value. First off, the Niners are in a great spot. Having just been humiliated by the Raiders, they have to go to Seattle and play the red hot Seahawks in the hardest venue in pro football over the past few years. Seattle by 20, right? Not usually-- the dictum that teams are never as good or as bad as perception is usually money, and the Niners are now double digit divisional dogs. Great situational play. Niners +10.
The other team I like is Dallas as 3 1/2 point road dogs at the Eagles. The NFC East has a long tradition of road teams winning these matchups, as well as splits of the season series. After the pasting at home on Thanksgiving, I think the Cowboys get the win (but a three point loss on a FG would be just fine by me as well). The Eagles-- despite Sanchez looking decent at time-- are not the same offense without Nick Foles, and now with a little more tape on the former USC standout, I expect Dallas to get enough pressure to force a turnover or two. This is a must-win for both teams, and I actually like the Cowboys to shake off their December woes and get the W. Cowboys + 3 1/2.
Week 14 Recap
After a couple of tough weeks, it was nice to get a solid 5-2 week. I was a little bummed to not get the Chiefs game, though when they elected to go for it on 4th & 4 instead of punting and pinning the Cards deep, I figured I was hosed. That stop was such a momentum changer. Still, KC had opportunities down the stretch to to take the lead, but two costly turnovers (an INT and a fumble deep in Arizona territory) sealed it.
The Steelers, Ravens and Panthers picks were pretty easy wins, though it took the first two teams until the second half to really pull away. The Carolina game-- wow. I figured that this one would be reliant on a backdoor, late garbage time TD, but no-- the Saints just imploded at home.... again. I wonder how different the Saints' season would be now if they didn't have that bogus call in the SF game. Things have been way downhill since then, in a season that has never been more than about a third way up the hill.
The Pats D secured the cover here, in a night when Brady made a few uncharacteristically bad throws (including the Cutleresque toss to Mant'i Teo near the end zone). Holding the Chargers to a single offensive score was massive, and speaks to the Patriots' much, much improved secondary.
Seattle seemed in control of the game at the Eagles, despite the early lead (what was essentially a special teams TD). The Eagles couldn't get anything going against the improved Seattle stop unit, which has been playing much, much better as of late. Suddenly, the defending champs look the part with this late season surge.
I was impressed with Denver's run game; feeding the ball the C. J. Anderson seems to be working for them. On a day when Manning had 0 TDs (a streak ended), the run was powerful. This bodes well for the playoffs, especially with the aforementioned improved secondary in New England. Plus, the string of RB injuries that allowed them to discover Anderson's talents is a great story.
The bad situation in the Bay area just went from bad to much, much worse-- and for once, we are not talking about the Raiders. Losing to the Raiders probably put the signatures on the divorce papers between the Niners and Harbaugh. I can't see him taking the gig at Oakland, but there seems to be a great deal of buzz around that move. I don't know who the 49ers think they will be able to get that's an upgrade, but there are some big egos involved in this thing. I also don't see Harbaugh going back to the college game without a Super Bowl ring to match his brother's-- he's just too competitive. I wondered about this game, after a recent ESPN polling of top-level NFL personnel execs picked Carr over Kaepernick in a head-to-head "who would you rather build your team around" question.
And what about Andrew Luck-- despite playing poorly for most of the game, he rallies his team for yet another late comeback win. The win is great for Indy, but with their stranglehold on the AFC South, the biggest winner is probably Johnny Football. With only a faint glimmer of playoff hopes still alive, the Browns could bench Hoyer (who was a dismal 14-31 with 0 TDs and 2 INTs, in a game where his D was giving him all the opportunity in the world) and see what they've got in their draft pick.
All in all, a solid week. One game under .500 and still have a shot to get mostly even for the season.
NFL 2014 Week 14: 5-2
NFL 2014 Season Total: 22-23
The Steelers, Ravens and Panthers picks were pretty easy wins, though it took the first two teams until the second half to really pull away. The Carolina game-- wow. I figured that this one would be reliant on a backdoor, late garbage time TD, but no-- the Saints just imploded at home.... again. I wonder how different the Saints' season would be now if they didn't have that bogus call in the SF game. Things have been way downhill since then, in a season that has never been more than about a third way up the hill.
The Pats D secured the cover here, in a night when Brady made a few uncharacteristically bad throws (including the Cutleresque toss to Mant'i Teo near the end zone). Holding the Chargers to a single offensive score was massive, and speaks to the Patriots' much, much improved secondary.
Seattle seemed in control of the game at the Eagles, despite the early lead (what was essentially a special teams TD). The Eagles couldn't get anything going against the improved Seattle stop unit, which has been playing much, much better as of late. Suddenly, the defending champs look the part with this late season surge.
I was impressed with Denver's run game; feeding the ball the C. J. Anderson seems to be working for them. On a day when Manning had 0 TDs (a streak ended), the run was powerful. This bodes well for the playoffs, especially with the aforementioned improved secondary in New England. Plus, the string of RB injuries that allowed them to discover Anderson's talents is a great story.
The bad situation in the Bay area just went from bad to much, much worse-- and for once, we are not talking about the Raiders. Losing to the Raiders probably put the signatures on the divorce papers between the Niners and Harbaugh. I can't see him taking the gig at Oakland, but there seems to be a great deal of buzz around that move. I don't know who the 49ers think they will be able to get that's an upgrade, but there are some big egos involved in this thing. I also don't see Harbaugh going back to the college game without a Super Bowl ring to match his brother's-- he's just too competitive. I wondered about this game, after a recent ESPN polling of top-level NFL personnel execs picked Carr over Kaepernick in a head-to-head "who would you rather build your team around" question.
And what about Andrew Luck-- despite playing poorly for most of the game, he rallies his team for yet another late comeback win. The win is great for Indy, but with their stranglehold on the AFC South, the biggest winner is probably Johnny Football. With only a faint glimmer of playoff hopes still alive, the Browns could bench Hoyer (who was a dismal 14-31 with 0 TDs and 2 INTs, in a game where his D was giving him all the opportunity in the world) and see what they've got in their draft pick.
All in all, a solid week. One game under .500 and still have a shot to get mostly even for the season.
NFL 2014 Week 14: 5-2
NFL 2014 Season Total: 22-23
Thursday, December 4, 2014
Extra Pick! Thursday Night Football....
After some sitting on the proverbial fence, I'm going to take the under 51 in the match up in Chicago. I think both teams will try to limit the opportunities for disaster and focus on the run game. Both teams feature high-caliber backs in Forte and Murray, and both teams are fielding QBs that are prone to meltdowns (Cutler just about any time, and Romo in December). Dallas/Chicago UNDER 51.
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