This board is tight-- I think most of the lines are right about where they should be, so if you are looking for value (and you always should be!) this is not the week.
Interesting line movements, though-- SF began at -4 over Philly, and with everyone and his mother coming in on the Eagles, the line has moved to... SF -5 or -5 1/2. I actually like SF in this spot-- desperate for a win to stay apace in the division, facing a hot team that eeked out victories from behind the first three weeks, the last two especially. I really wanted this game around a field goal, but I'm going to play with Vegas on this one. SF -5.
The other game Vegas is really pounding is Detroit at the Jets. Coming off a win against Green Bay, the Lions should be an easy cash against the turnover prone Jets who just got destroyed on national television, right? Geno Smith actually has a history of following up those multi-INT games with solid performances. The Jets D is still pretty legit. I'll hitch my wagon to the books on this one, too. Jets +1.5.
I can get a total of 41 in the Carolina-Baltimore match up. I like the under in that game; I look for the Carolina defense to get back on track and don't trust their offense to do much in this contest. Under 41.
Wednesday, September 24, 2014
Week 3 Recap
Split this weekend to go 4-4 overall; I stand by the Broncos pick, just got tripped up by the TD in OT (I don't have the stats in front of me, but the number of OT games that don't end up 3 point games is very low). In a certain sense, the Broncos were undone by their own offensive power-- moving down the field to score the TD and conversion made the Seahawks wary of trying to win with the kicking game, I'm sure. It was a smart play, but cost me a game I probably should have won (man, was I rooting for the 2 point conversion to fail!).
The Colts were an easy cover basically wire-to-wire. I don't usually take favorites in division game, but this one had blowout written all over it. It was a nice spot for the previously 0-2 (but playing well) Colts to get a much needed win and the cover.
Vegas took it on the chin in the Cowboys game-- for most of that game, the linesmakers looked like geniuses. They don't win them all, and this one cost. Luckily for the books, the Pats narrowly dispatched the Raiders and gave up the cover. That helped even things out a bit.
NFL 2014 Week 3: 1-1
NFL 2014 Season Total: 4-4
The Colts were an easy cover basically wire-to-wire. I don't usually take favorites in division game, but this one had blowout written all over it. It was a nice spot for the previously 0-2 (but playing well) Colts to get a much needed win and the cover.
Vegas took it on the chin in the Cowboys game-- for most of that game, the linesmakers looked like geniuses. They don't win them all, and this one cost. Luckily for the books, the Pats narrowly dispatched the Raiders and gave up the cover. That helped even things out a bit.
NFL 2014 Week 3: 1-1
NFL 2014 Season Total: 4-4
Wednesday, September 17, 2014
NFL Week 3 Picks
The Chargers' big win really screwed up a possible good play this week. Taking a team off a big upset win is usually very bad news; I was hoping to get the Chargers a little more desparate and under-valued for this week's match-up against the Bills. They are 2 1/2 point dogs at this point, which would have been more had SD not pulled out the surprising win over the defending champs. I still like the Bolts to cover here, but not enough to trust Rivers with my money at that number. Slight lean and no play.
Speaking of setting up good plays-- I'm rooting hard for the Texans this week. Not because I'm betting on them, but because ANOTHER loss for the Giants will set them up as huge dogs in the Week 4 match up in primetime against division rival Washington. If the Team from Washington can manage to upset Philly, even better. I'd love to get NY as a double digit divisional dog on a nationally televised game.
It looks like Vegas is setting up a trap game an the Cowboys. The Cowboys are a huge public team, and they are very, very short favorites on the road this week in St. Louis. The Rams have looked like this year's Jags (i.e., woeful), and the Cowboys got a W last week... so Dallas -1 looks like a no-brainer, right? With 92% of the money on Dallas, the line isn't moving. That very, very often indicates that Vegas knows something we don't. Or at least, they know enough to be willing to overload the books on the Dallas side and gamble. Vegas doesn't always win, but they win more of these games than they lose. That being said, I don't see how Dallas loses this game-- and that's saying a lot, since each year the Cowboys are extraordinarily adept at inventing new ways to lose. I'll stay off this one, and will enjoy seeing is Vegas cashes or takes it on the chin.
If I did some digging, I might be able to find the last time an 0-2 team was an 11-point favorite, but suffice to say that's a rare thing indeed. I actually think the Saints have a good chance of covering here; it just depends on how aggressively they come after Cassell. If they rattle him like New England did, the Vikings could get blown out again. However, you'd be out of your mind to eat that much chalk on a 0-2 team, even one with Drew Brees. Interesting to see how this one plays out.
More interesting storylines in the lines this week than good plays, but I have two this week...
So what to do about the Colts this week? Like New Orleans, this is a pretty good team that's 0-2. The Colts came up short in a game on the road to the Super Bowl runner-up, and should have beat Philly at home. At 0-2, the Wild Card will be very, very difficult to catch. They only road to the playoffs is probably to win the division, and they will be looking to pound the Jags. Indy's defensive unit did a mostly decent job against Philly, except for Sproles, which no Indy D in the last ten years has been able to contain. They ran the ball effectively. Reggie Wayne is back and playing out of his mind (including fumble recoveries and tackling-- the dude does everything). The Jags are-- generously speaking-- modestly improved over last year and shouldn't stand a chance... but-- the stats are what the stats are. Road favorites in divisional games don't cover the number very well. I think this game is an exception, as had the Colts beat Philly, this line would be around 10, 10 1/2 points. I'm risking getting whacked by the same team in consecutive weeks, but I'm taking the Colts -6 1/2.
The big game, of course, is the rematch of The Big Game. Denver has a somewhat improved defense and a very, very bad taste in their mouths from the pasting they got in Manning's 3rd SB appearance. Here's some interesting research I did today: Peyton Manning has faced the team in the regular season that knocked him out of the playoffs in the previous year five times in his career. Manning is 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU in these situations. He is often knocked as the greatest regular season QB (a deliberatly back-handed compliment), but the stats are there-- Manning gets his revenge. Denver +5.
Speaking of setting up good plays-- I'm rooting hard for the Texans this week. Not because I'm betting on them, but because ANOTHER loss for the Giants will set them up as huge dogs in the Week 4 match up in primetime against division rival Washington. If the Team from Washington can manage to upset Philly, even better. I'd love to get NY as a double digit divisional dog on a nationally televised game.
It looks like Vegas is setting up a trap game an the Cowboys. The Cowboys are a huge public team, and they are very, very short favorites on the road this week in St. Louis. The Rams have looked like this year's Jags (i.e., woeful), and the Cowboys got a W last week... so Dallas -1 looks like a no-brainer, right? With 92% of the money on Dallas, the line isn't moving. That very, very often indicates that Vegas knows something we don't. Or at least, they know enough to be willing to overload the books on the Dallas side and gamble. Vegas doesn't always win, but they win more of these games than they lose. That being said, I don't see how Dallas loses this game-- and that's saying a lot, since each year the Cowboys are extraordinarily adept at inventing new ways to lose. I'll stay off this one, and will enjoy seeing is Vegas cashes or takes it on the chin.
If I did some digging, I might be able to find the last time an 0-2 team was an 11-point favorite, but suffice to say that's a rare thing indeed. I actually think the Saints have a good chance of covering here; it just depends on how aggressively they come after Cassell. If they rattle him like New England did, the Vikings could get blown out again. However, you'd be out of your mind to eat that much chalk on a 0-2 team, even one with Drew Brees. Interesting to see how this one plays out.
More interesting storylines in the lines this week than good plays, but I have two this week...
So what to do about the Colts this week? Like New Orleans, this is a pretty good team that's 0-2. The Colts came up short in a game on the road to the Super Bowl runner-up, and should have beat Philly at home. At 0-2, the Wild Card will be very, very difficult to catch. They only road to the playoffs is probably to win the division, and they will be looking to pound the Jags. Indy's defensive unit did a mostly decent job against Philly, except for Sproles, which no Indy D in the last ten years has been able to contain. They ran the ball effectively. Reggie Wayne is back and playing out of his mind (including fumble recoveries and tackling-- the dude does everything). The Jags are-- generously speaking-- modestly improved over last year and shouldn't stand a chance... but-- the stats are what the stats are. Road favorites in divisional games don't cover the number very well. I think this game is an exception, as had the Colts beat Philly, this line would be around 10, 10 1/2 points. I'm risking getting whacked by the same team in consecutive weeks, but I'm taking the Colts -6 1/2.
The big game, of course, is the rematch of The Big Game. Denver has a somewhat improved defense and a very, very bad taste in their mouths from the pasting they got in Manning's 3rd SB appearance. Here's some interesting research I did today: Peyton Manning has faced the team in the regular season that knocked him out of the playoffs in the previous year five times in his career. Manning is 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU in these situations. He is often knocked as the greatest regular season QB (a deliberatly back-handed compliment), but the stats are there-- Manning gets his revenge. Denver +5.
Week 2 Recap
Sometimes you are on the right side and still lose, and sometimes you are on the wrong side and still win. The Eagles-Colts tilt on Monday Night was the former for sure-- a whole lot of unlikely events had to happen in a very short span of time to blow my Colts pick.
Unlikely Thing #1: Chuck and Pep have a collective dumbass attack on the sideline and decide not to run the ball for the first down, knowing that worst case they could take the 3 points from a Vinatieri field goal to go up by 10 points with 5:08 left... on a night when the Colts could actually run the ball effectively against the Philly stop unit.
Unlikely Thing #2: Andrew Luck throws an interception trying to convert on a play that should have been a running play (see above)
Unlikely Thing #3: Related to #2-- this should never have been a pick. Refs miss a painfully obvious call on Boykin.
Unlikely Thing #4: Refs miss an obvious call (see #3) then randomly compensate by calling a highly questionable horsecollar tackle on Landry, which gives the Eagles the first down and 15 yards. Sproles awesomeness happens for 51 yards, and yeah, well, there you have it.
So a perfect storm of suck can really derail an otherwise solid play. Over the course of the season, you are going to have them. It happens. Taking the long view over 5 months of the NFL, these kinds of losses will be cancelled out by a few wins the you edge out when you make a bad call. So we regroup. It was still a profitable week, going 2-1 (or, 2-1-0-1 if you want to use wins/losses/ties/moral victories [which don't pay as well]). That puts me at 3-3 for the year, but on the right track.
Speaking of getting a call wrong and getting bailed out.. remember when I didn't take the Steelers because I couldn't get them at +3 and took the under instead? The fact that the line was Steelers +2 1/2 saved me a loss there; the under was a pretty easy cash.
The KC-Denver game was just as expected-- huge divisional dog on the road covers the spread. I was a little worried when Jamal Charles went out early, but the Chiefs hung tough and took Denver to the wire.
I'll take a winning week any week, even a 2-1.
NFL 2014 Week 2: 2-1
NFL 2014 Season Total: 3-3
Unlikely Thing #1: Chuck and Pep have a collective dumbass attack on the sideline and decide not to run the ball for the first down, knowing that worst case they could take the 3 points from a Vinatieri field goal to go up by 10 points with 5:08 left... on a night when the Colts could actually run the ball effectively against the Philly stop unit.
Unlikely Thing #2: Andrew Luck throws an interception trying to convert on a play that should have been a running play (see above)
Unlikely Thing #3: Related to #2-- this should never have been a pick. Refs miss a painfully obvious call on Boykin.
Unlikely Thing #4: Refs miss an obvious call (see #3) then randomly compensate by calling a highly questionable horsecollar tackle on Landry, which gives the Eagles the first down and 15 yards. Sproles awesomeness happens for 51 yards, and yeah, well, there you have it.
So a perfect storm of suck can really derail an otherwise solid play. Over the course of the season, you are going to have them. It happens. Taking the long view over 5 months of the NFL, these kinds of losses will be cancelled out by a few wins the you edge out when you make a bad call. So we regroup. It was still a profitable week, going 2-1 (or, 2-1-0-1 if you want to use wins/losses/ties/moral victories [which don't pay as well]). That puts me at 3-3 for the year, but on the right track.
Speaking of getting a call wrong and getting bailed out.. remember when I didn't take the Steelers because I couldn't get them at +3 and took the under instead? The fact that the line was Steelers +2 1/2 saved me a loss there; the under was a pretty easy cash.
The KC-Denver game was just as expected-- huge divisional dog on the road covers the spread. I was a little worried when Jamal Charles went out early, but the Chiefs hung tough and took Denver to the wire.
I'll take a winning week any week, even a 2-1.
NFL 2014 Week 2: 2-1
NFL 2014 Season Total: 3-3
Thursday, September 11, 2014
Week 2 Picks
Time to rebound... I wish I had the Steelers at +3. I'm not playing it at +2 1/2, just too risky. This is a series I generally always take the dog at a field goal. This series is almost always decided by a field goal or less-- 10 of 13 now in the Flacco - Big Ben era. All the off field stuff and the 1/2 point are making me stay off this one. I wouldn't be surprised if the Steelers win this outright, but I'm just going to play safe and stay away.
I do, however, like the total here. The last time these two teams scored over 43 points was in the playoffs for the 2010 season (game played in January 2011). I can get 45 now, so I'm taking the UNDER 45 in this game.
One trend I love is playing double digit divisional dogs. Divisional games are always closer than the public thinks, and Vegas has no problem printing tickets for double digit chalk all weekend. For that reason, I'm taking the now-left-for-dead Kansas City at +12 1/2 against Denver.
Andrew Luck is money ATS after a loss. I'll take the Colts to outlast the Eagles at home in a potential shootout. Colts -3.
I'm interested to see what happens with the Pats and Vikings game. The line movement is pretty interesting, as the line has moved from Pats -5 to Pats -3.5 with nearly 2/3 of the money on New England. If we had more like 80% on the Pats, I'd bite on the Vikings. This is one to watch on Sunday morning when all the tourist money comes into Vegas...
I do, however, like the total here. The last time these two teams scored over 43 points was in the playoffs for the 2010 season (game played in January 2011). I can get 45 now, so I'm taking the UNDER 45 in this game.
One trend I love is playing double digit divisional dogs. Divisional games are always closer than the public thinks, and Vegas has no problem printing tickets for double digit chalk all weekend. For that reason, I'm taking the now-left-for-dead Kansas City at +12 1/2 against Denver.
Andrew Luck is money ATS after a loss. I'll take the Colts to outlast the Eagles at home in a potential shootout. Colts -3.
I'm interested to see what happens with the Pats and Vikings game. The line movement is pretty interesting, as the line has moved from Pats -5 to Pats -3.5 with nearly 2/3 of the money on New England. If we had more like 80% on the Pats, I'd bite on the Vikings. This is one to watch on Sunday morning when all the tourist money comes into Vegas...
Week 1 Recap
Starting out with a loser is always rough, but it's a long season, so I'm not getting too worked up about it. It's my own fault-- I almost always play with the house (but never against), and I left two winners on the board with Atlanta and Miami (in both cases, the heavily bet sides [Pats and Saints] didn't move the line too terribly much, as Vegas was trying to attract money to the Pats and Saints to clean up.. and clean up they did!). Miss out on those.
The Green Bay was a little frustrating because of the rather unusual Packer miscues. Some of those 1st half mistakes were just killer, and seemed to happen just when the momentum was seemingly shifting. Those mistakes against that team-- that's how competitive games and 'dog covers turn into blowouts. I really was banking on GB playing sharp and smart, but they let me down.
The Dallas game was just a debacle. Those early mistakes cost what should have been a solid Dallas cover.
At least my total play was good-- I was worried when Philly basically spotted the Jags 17 points, but they kept it under the number (barely).
The most entertaining game might have been the "almost" comeback from the heart attack Colts. I love watching Andrew Luck bring that team roaring back, as he did so many times last season. Not quite enough to tie it late, but after the first half, coming back to get the cover was pretty solid.
Man, the Giants suck. Not as bad as my picks for Week 1, but it was close.
NFL 2014 Week 1: 1-2
NFL 2014 Season Total:1-2
The Green Bay was a little frustrating because of the rather unusual Packer miscues. Some of those 1st half mistakes were just killer, and seemed to happen just when the momentum was seemingly shifting. Those mistakes against that team-- that's how competitive games and 'dog covers turn into blowouts. I really was banking on GB playing sharp and smart, but they let me down.
The Dallas game was just a debacle. Those early mistakes cost what should have been a solid Dallas cover.
At least my total play was good-- I was worried when Philly basically spotted the Jags 17 points, but they kept it under the number (barely).
The most entertaining game might have been the "almost" comeback from the heart attack Colts. I love watching Andrew Luck bring that team roaring back, as he did so many times last season. Not quite enough to tie it late, but after the first half, coming back to get the cover was pretty solid.
Man, the Giants suck. Not as bad as my picks for Week 1, but it was close.
NFL 2014 Week 1: 1-2
NFL 2014 Season Total:1-2
Thursday, September 4, 2014
The 2014 NFL Season is here!
After countless annoying preseason games, a few decent college games to whet our collective appetites for football, and a lot of fanfare, the 2014 NFL season is here. Finally. More importantly, the quest to make money is upon us-- as the saying goes, "Money won is sweeter than money earned". I ended up +7.2 units for the season last year, which I'll take any year-- any time you are in the black you should be happy.
I have a few picks this week, though early season (and especially Week 1) can be dangerous. One of the worst things a gambler can do is listen to the inane punditry on ESPN and sports radio-- who's going to be improved, who's over-rated, etc. They rarely base their opinions on hard data and aren't terribly useful-- they are after all providing entertainment, not data-driven analysis that is useful.
The first pick I'm making this week is a play on Green Bay. I think the line should be around a field goal for this match up between two really good teams, so to get the Packers at +5 1/2 is value. Superbowl winners often have slow starts, but that's really not what I'm counting on; the Packers will be ready and looking to prove last year's disappointment was an aberration. The underwhelming season Green Bay had last year was mostly due to the significant injury at QB. They really never recovered from the 4-0-1 stretch they had in the middle of season, but still managed to squeak into the playoffs, losing by a field goal to the 49ers. The Packers will be looking to right the ship, and probably still remember the last time they played in Seattle-- the horrible officiating call that cost them the game. I like the value on the dog here. Green Bay +5 1/2.
I like the UNDER 53 in the Jacksonville - Philadelphia game. 53 points is a lot of points, especially when one of the teams is Jacksonville. This is a team that scored over 20 points only three times last year; I don't expect a great deal from their offense in this game either. Philly can score, but should also be able to control the clock late in the game if needed. I just don't see 53 points in this game. Jacksonville / Philadelphia UNDER 53.
I like the Cowboys as home dogs of 5 points-- SF is good, but Dallas has enough to hang in there, especially at home. SF ground out short wins against top-tier teams last year, and it wouldn't surprise me if they won here. I do, however, think 5 is a lot to cover on the road, especially with a team like Dallas that can really put up the points at time. Dallas +5.
I almost pulled the trigger on the NE and MIA game; Miami has always played the Pats tough at home, and I'd be all over this if this were Week 3. There's just too much that can go wrong the first week, and the professionalism of Pats' organization (something lacking in Miami last year) probably insulates them from some of the risk. I'll stay off. I'm also staying off two other "leans"-- the under in the Denver / Indy game and the Chargers making a close game out in the desert. Interesting match-ups, but not enough to risk any capital this year.
I have a few picks this week, though early season (and especially Week 1) can be dangerous. One of the worst things a gambler can do is listen to the inane punditry on ESPN and sports radio-- who's going to be improved, who's over-rated, etc. They rarely base their opinions on hard data and aren't terribly useful-- they are after all providing entertainment, not data-driven analysis that is useful.
The first pick I'm making this week is a play on Green Bay. I think the line should be around a field goal for this match up between two really good teams, so to get the Packers at +5 1/2 is value. Superbowl winners often have slow starts, but that's really not what I'm counting on; the Packers will be ready and looking to prove last year's disappointment was an aberration. The underwhelming season Green Bay had last year was mostly due to the significant injury at QB. They really never recovered from the 4-0-1 stretch they had in the middle of season, but still managed to squeak into the playoffs, losing by a field goal to the 49ers. The Packers will be looking to right the ship, and probably still remember the last time they played in Seattle-- the horrible officiating call that cost them the game. I like the value on the dog here. Green Bay +5 1/2.
I like the UNDER 53 in the Jacksonville - Philadelphia game. 53 points is a lot of points, especially when one of the teams is Jacksonville. This is a team that scored over 20 points only three times last year; I don't expect a great deal from their offense in this game either. Philly can score, but should also be able to control the clock late in the game if needed. I just don't see 53 points in this game. Jacksonville / Philadelphia UNDER 53.
I like the Cowboys as home dogs of 5 points-- SF is good, but Dallas has enough to hang in there, especially at home. SF ground out short wins against top-tier teams last year, and it wouldn't surprise me if they won here. I do, however, think 5 is a lot to cover on the road, especially with a team like Dallas that can really put up the points at time. Dallas +5.
I almost pulled the trigger on the NE and MIA game; Miami has always played the Pats tough at home, and I'd be all over this if this were Week 3. There's just too much that can go wrong the first week, and the professionalism of Pats' organization (something lacking in Miami last year) probably insulates them from some of the risk. I'll stay off. I'm also staying off two other "leans"-- the under in the Denver / Indy game and the Chargers making a close game out in the desert. Interesting match-ups, but not enough to risk any capital this year.
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