A big card that gave back a game-- that's the story of Week 7. The Seattle bounce back didn't happen; despite Wilson racking up yards and yards and yards, they couldn't get it together to beat Austin Davis's Rams. Statistically, the Seahwaks play should have been good, but the scoreboard is what matters.
I also made an over-reach on the 49ers' D. They've been overachieving to date with so many missing players, and this was clearly the week that those major losses on the defensive side of the ball caught up to them. Manning picked them apart and sent the total over.
The Giants were a huge let down-- after cashing (handily) the Jets pick and the Saints pick (a game with a close score but the +3 really never in doubt in the second half), seeing the Giants fritter away the chance to be competitive in a big divisional road game (for the second time in two weeks) was disappointed. Like many people, when Romo threw that early pick, I felt like the Cowboys were finally going to be the Cowboys. But hand it to Dallas-- they rallied and beat the backdoor cover in the 4th quarter.
I'm not sure what to make of the Colts-- the shutout against Cincinnati was a surprise. Sure, the Bengals were without Green, but still... The Colts aren't exactly a defensive squad that pitches a lot of shut outs. I think this had to do more with "The Bungles" than the Colts. With the Texans loss at Pittsburgh on Monday Night Football, the Colts are comfortably in control of the division. It makes me wonder if we will see another weird Indy meltdown (like the St. Louis blowout at home last year), and certainly prompts a lot of questions about Cincinnati.
The appearance of Colt McCoy in the Washington game was surprising-- we are only a few weeks from the Cousins-over-Griffin discussions, and here he gets benched and McCoy lobs a TD on his first play. I'll be very interested to see what happens this week with McCoy.
Kansas City is one of the quieter, better teams despite their .500 record. After the strong start last year, the faltering down the stretch, and the debacle in the playoffs, Andy Reid's team still doesn't get much press or trust from the media. The win over the Chargers was a huge divisional win for them. Their resume isn't bad-- wins over New England and San Diego are good, and a minor blowout of the Dolphins on the road doesn't hurt. Aside from the inexplicable Week 1 loss to the Titans, the other two losses have been at San Francisco and at Denver-- both relatively close games. They've been underdogs in their last five games and have gone 4-1 ATS and 3-2 SU (and the one loss ATS was a half point loser at SF).
Arizona is the (perhaps not so) surprising leader in the NFC West. With Seattle and San Francisco faltering, the Cardinals have been solid, even through multiple QB injuries and a fairly unproductive stretch from Larry Fitzgerald. Hand it Bruce Arians, who might be a candidate for coach of the year again if their success continues.
NFL 2014 Week 7: 2-3
NFL 2014 Season Total: 10-12
Thursday, October 23, 2014
Thursday, October 16, 2014
Week 7 Picks
This is the biggest card to date this year; there are several solid situational plays with divisional dogs. One of my guiding mantras for betting the NFL is about cashing in on parity-- teams are never as good as we think they are, and teams are never as bad as we think they are.
My first play (getting ready to kick off in about an hour from writing this) is on the Jets +10. Not only are the Jets double digit divisional dogs, but they've looked all shades of terrible at points this season. Still, they managed to be within a score late last week against Denver. On the other side, after a shaky start, the Pats are back to their winning ways. Much as the Patriots have always thumped Buffalo, they have historically always had trouble in Miami and against the Jets-- these games are often very close. So with 10 points, I'll take the Jets to keep it close (ish). New York Jets +10.
What a difference one game makes. The media have been in an uproar about the Seattle Seahawks after their loss to a very good Cowboys team. The Seahawks are fine; they are listed as 7-point favorites most places, and I found them at a window for -6 1/2. I like Seattle to bounce back and get back on track here. Seattle -6 1/2.
Drew Brees with points. Drew Brees with points off a bye. Drew Brees with points off a bye against a Detroit teams sans Megatron (most likely). I always take QBs like Brees, Manning, Brady, etc. with points. This is an easy play for me. New Orleans +3.
After the debacle against the Eagles where they looked like Jacksonville Jaguars, I like the New York Giants to cover against the Cowboys as 6 1/2 point dogs. This is a great situational play-- Cowboys (a team that hasn't dealt with success well in the Romo era) are coming off the emotional high of the biggest win of the past ten years, and the Giants got shut out in a nationally-televised game. This is a great spot to back New York. New York Giants +6 1/2.
San Fran and Denver is a really interesting matchup, and should be a good game. Manning will be playing to tie and/or beat the TD record, and the SF defense would love to make sure that doesn't happen-- and they actually have a shot at that. The Niners secondary is shutting down passing games with great success, and I like them to be jacked for this game. Denying the home crowd the chance to see the TD record broken would be a huge win for them. Combine that with Denver's modestly improved defense, and I'll take the under 50. SF/Denver UNDER 50.
My first play (getting ready to kick off in about an hour from writing this) is on the Jets +10. Not only are the Jets double digit divisional dogs, but they've looked all shades of terrible at points this season. Still, they managed to be within a score late last week against Denver. On the other side, after a shaky start, the Pats are back to their winning ways. Much as the Patriots have always thumped Buffalo, they have historically always had trouble in Miami and against the Jets-- these games are often very close. So with 10 points, I'll take the Jets to keep it close (ish). New York Jets +10.
What a difference one game makes. The media have been in an uproar about the Seattle Seahawks after their loss to a very good Cowboys team. The Seahawks are fine; they are listed as 7-point favorites most places, and I found them at a window for -6 1/2. I like Seattle to bounce back and get back on track here. Seattle -6 1/2.
Drew Brees with points. Drew Brees with points off a bye. Drew Brees with points off a bye against a Detroit teams sans Megatron (most likely). I always take QBs like Brees, Manning, Brady, etc. with points. This is an easy play for me. New Orleans +3.
After the debacle against the Eagles where they looked like Jacksonville Jaguars, I like the New York Giants to cover against the Cowboys as 6 1/2 point dogs. This is a great situational play-- Cowboys (a team that hasn't dealt with success well in the Romo era) are coming off the emotional high of the biggest win of the past ten years, and the Giants got shut out in a nationally-televised game. This is a great spot to back New York. New York Giants +6 1/2.
San Fran and Denver is a really interesting matchup, and should be a good game. Manning will be playing to tie and/or beat the TD record, and the SF defense would love to make sure that doesn't happen-- and they actually have a shot at that. The Niners secondary is shutting down passing games with great success, and I like them to be jacked for this game. Denying the home crowd the chance to see the TD record broken would be a huge win for them. Combine that with Denver's modestly improved defense, and I'll take the under 50. SF/Denver UNDER 50.
Week 6 Recap
A solid week; the Cowboys' win outright at Seattle as 8 1/2 point dogs was an easy cash, as was the Giants-Eagles under. The NFC East matchup didn't go exactly as I had planned, but made for a very, very easy under. My third play of the week was a loser... the TD scored with :03 left sent the total over in the Green Bay - Miami game. I'll take 2-1 any week, which gets me a little closer to .500.
The biggest play of the weekend was a late pick-six, and it cost the sportsbooks BIG. They took all sorts of action on Denver, even having moved the line up to -10. But Geno Smith came through for the public, tossing an INT to Aqib Talib who ran it back to the house for the back-door cover. Crazy. That play cost Vegas some serious coin. The late INT return in the Washington - Arizona game also gave the Cards the cover, though that game was not nearly as heavily bet as the Denver game.
The Colts were again big winners, now 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four. Three of those were divisional games, too, so that's a pretty interesting stat (or maybe it just indicates how terrible the other teams in the AFC South are right now). The Raiders got the cover against San Diego and had chances to win that game several times.
I was very curious to see the Monday Night game this past week. The 49ers as 3 1/2 point favorites against a team starting their last (and very green) QB seemed like a no-brainer. Since Vegas didn't move the line too much, I had a hunch that they were making a play, but didn't go in with them on it-- I just couldn't imagine a situation where the 49ers didn't win it handily. I was kicking myself for not making the situational play on this game during the first quarter, when Austin Davis looked crisp and the Rams were making plays. Tale of two halves, for sure. I think Vegas lost some money on this game too.
NFL 2014 Week 6: 2-1
NFL 2014 Season Total: 8-9
The biggest play of the weekend was a late pick-six, and it cost the sportsbooks BIG. They took all sorts of action on Denver, even having moved the line up to -10. But Geno Smith came through for the public, tossing an INT to Aqib Talib who ran it back to the house for the back-door cover. Crazy. That play cost Vegas some serious coin. The late INT return in the Washington - Arizona game also gave the Cards the cover, though that game was not nearly as heavily bet as the Denver game.
The Colts were again big winners, now 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four. Three of those were divisional games, too, so that's a pretty interesting stat (or maybe it just indicates how terrible the other teams in the AFC South are right now). The Raiders got the cover against San Diego and had chances to win that game several times.
I was very curious to see the Monday Night game this past week. The 49ers as 3 1/2 point favorites against a team starting their last (and very green) QB seemed like a no-brainer. Since Vegas didn't move the line too much, I had a hunch that they were making a play, but didn't go in with them on it-- I just couldn't imagine a situation where the 49ers didn't win it handily. I was kicking myself for not making the situational play on this game during the first quarter, when Austin Davis looked crisp and the Rams were making plays. Tale of two halves, for sure. I think Vegas lost some money on this game too.
NFL 2014 Week 6: 2-1
NFL 2014 Season Total: 8-9
Wednesday, October 8, 2014
Week 6 Picks
This week doesn't present much in the way of great situational match-ups. The 4-1 Cowboys are the largest dogs of the week, owing to the significant challenge of taking on the Seahawks in Seattle (more on that later). Most of the divisional match-ups seem to be right where they should be; even the hapless Raiders started as less than a touchdown dogs (the line has been bet up to San Diego -7 1/2 at most windows). Not much value in the spreads in most of these match-ups, to be sure.
The one I do like is the Cowboys as road underdogs of +8 1/2. Seattle is coming off of a 10 point victory that should have been much, much bigger (Seattle's penalty problem was apparent in the tilt against Washington), and Russell Wilson did make some really amazing plays. The penalties could have really cost them had Washington been able to cash in on some opportunities. Playing from behind, Washington abandoned the run and just had to try to pass their way back into the game late. As well as the Cowboys have run the ball, and as well as the Seahawks can run, I look for this game to be a physical slugfest. I don't get the sense that we'll see Romo unchained and passing every play unless they get down big early. I like this game to be a slog, run-center affair, which always tips the scale to a dog as big as the 'Boys. Cowboys +8 1/2.
I like the under in the Giants-Eagles game. The final scores for the Philly games have been a little misleading, owing to the special teams plays the last couple of weeks, which have definitely padded the scores. This is a grudge match and one of the better rivalries in the NFL; I think both teams will be a little more cautious. Though this series' history is full of shoot outs, I think this one is a down-tempo event that favors the under. Giants-Eagles UNDER 50 1/2.
I also like the under in the Green Bay - Miami game. The Green Bay defense has improved, holding the high-octane offenses of Chicago and Detroit under 20 points. In the games since the Seattle drubbing, they've allowed 17 1/2 points per game. Miami is inconsistent on offense, to say the least. The path to the under probably involves Green Bay getting an early lead and eating clock with the run game. Green Bay - Miami UNDER 49 1/2.
The one I do like is the Cowboys as road underdogs of +8 1/2. Seattle is coming off of a 10 point victory that should have been much, much bigger (Seattle's penalty problem was apparent in the tilt against Washington), and Russell Wilson did make some really amazing plays. The penalties could have really cost them had Washington been able to cash in on some opportunities. Playing from behind, Washington abandoned the run and just had to try to pass their way back into the game late. As well as the Cowboys have run the ball, and as well as the Seahawks can run, I look for this game to be a physical slugfest. I don't get the sense that we'll see Romo unchained and passing every play unless they get down big early. I like this game to be a slog, run-center affair, which always tips the scale to a dog as big as the 'Boys. Cowboys +8 1/2.
I like the under in the Giants-Eagles game. The final scores for the Philly games have been a little misleading, owing to the special teams plays the last couple of weeks, which have definitely padded the scores. This is a grudge match and one of the better rivalries in the NFL; I think both teams will be a little more cautious. Though this series' history is full of shoot outs, I think this one is a down-tempo event that favors the under. Giants-Eagles UNDER 50 1/2.
I also like the under in the Green Bay - Miami game. The Green Bay defense has improved, holding the high-octane offenses of Chicago and Detroit under 20 points. In the games since the Seattle drubbing, they've allowed 17 1/2 points per game. Miami is inconsistent on offense, to say the least. The path to the under probably involves Green Bay getting an early lead and eating clock with the run game. Green Bay - Miami UNDER 49 1/2.
Week 5 Recap
Got a game back this week with a solid 2-1 showing; the stalled late drive in the Atlanta-New York game cost me the backdoor cover, but the New England and Tampa Bay plays were easy winners for sure. I may have gotten a little greedy trying to get all three games I dropped the previous week back; I liked the situational aspect of the loser, but Matty Ice once again was less-than-stellar on the road.
There were some really interesting games from a fan perspective this weekend-- the Bucs and Saints was certianly a thriller, and I always love those crazy comebacks (though I'm not sure if that's more props to Cleveland or a Herm-esque "c'mon man" to the Titans D). The Monday night game was competitive for a goodly portion, and watching Russell Wilson turn busted plays into big plays was cool to behold.
The oft-maligned NFC had a good showing in Week 5, with the Giants, Cowboys, and Eagles getting wins and the Redskins looking not-terrible against the defending champs. The Cowboys look pretty solid, but everyone seems to be waiting with bated breath for the usual swoon-- this weekend against Seattle seems a likely place for them to fold, but if history serves a lesson, they could win this one outright and then drop three-of-four moving ahead.
The other team that I'm waiting to start a skid is the San Diego Chargers. To date, they've looked pretty decent, with a huge signature win against Seattle. Usually given to slow starts, the Bolts seem to have it together. But I'm not on the San Diego bandwagon yet-- I usually like them as late season dogs, but I just don't trust them to cover reliably as favorites. The shutout win over the Jets probably has more to do with the Jets being god awful. How much longer is Rex Ryan employed? This season is all but done for them, sitting at 1-4.
NFL 2014 Week 4: 2-1
NFL 2014 Season Total: 6-8
There were some really interesting games from a fan perspective this weekend-- the Bucs and Saints was certianly a thriller, and I always love those crazy comebacks (though I'm not sure if that's more props to Cleveland or a Herm-esque "c'mon man" to the Titans D). The Monday night game was competitive for a goodly portion, and watching Russell Wilson turn busted plays into big plays was cool to behold.
The oft-maligned NFC had a good showing in Week 5, with the Giants, Cowboys, and Eagles getting wins and the Redskins looking not-terrible against the defending champs. The Cowboys look pretty solid, but everyone seems to be waiting with bated breath for the usual swoon-- this weekend against Seattle seems a likely place for them to fold, but if history serves a lesson, they could win this one outright and then drop three-of-four moving ahead.
The other team that I'm waiting to start a skid is the San Diego Chargers. To date, they've looked pretty decent, with a huge signature win against Seattle. Usually given to slow starts, the Bolts seem to have it together. But I'm not on the San Diego bandwagon yet-- I usually like them as late season dogs, but I just don't trust them to cover reliably as favorites. The shutout win over the Jets probably has more to do with the Jets being god awful. How much longer is Rex Ryan employed? This season is all but done for them, sitting at 1-4.
NFL 2014 Week 4: 2-1
NFL 2014 Season Total: 6-8
Wednesday, October 1, 2014
Week 5 Picks
Time to get back on track here-- Week 5 has some interesting match ups and some teams in some pretty decent spots.
I always take double digit underdogs in divisional games, so I'm making a play on Tampa Bay +10 1/2 at New Orleans. This one is a bit scary-- NO traditionally plays very, very well at home, especially coming off a loss. But I'll take the statistics on this one and play on the Bucs. Tampa Bay +10 1/2.
Not-High-Fiving-Tom-Brady is almost always money after a loss. Last year, the Pats were home underdogs in only one game-- against the visiting Broncos. The Pats won outright as 2 1/2 point dogs. Before that, it had been 8 years! I like taking QBs like Brady, Manning and Brees as home dogs, so I'll take the Patriots this week getting a small bit. New England +1.5.
I like the situational angle in the Atlanta - New York game-- the Falcons coming off a bad loss to a subpar team, and the Giants coming off a huge nationally-televised pasting of a divisional rival. Atlanta doesn't play extremely well on the road, but I like them to cover the 4. Atlanta +4.
Three dog kind of week here-- let's atone for last week's debacle and climb back in this thing.
I always take double digit underdogs in divisional games, so I'm making a play on Tampa Bay +10 1/2 at New Orleans. This one is a bit scary-- NO traditionally plays very, very well at home, especially coming off a loss. But I'll take the statistics on this one and play on the Bucs. Tampa Bay +10 1/2.
Not-High-Fiving-Tom-Brady is almost always money after a loss. Last year, the Pats were home underdogs in only one game-- against the visiting Broncos. The Pats won outright as 2 1/2 point dogs. Before that, it had been 8 years! I like taking QBs like Brady, Manning and Brees as home dogs, so I'll take the Patriots this week getting a small bit. New England +1.5.
I like the situational angle in the Atlanta - New York game-- the Falcons coming off a bad loss to a subpar team, and the Giants coming off a huge nationally-televised pasting of a divisional rival. Atlanta doesn't play extremely well on the road, but I like them to cover the 4. Atlanta +4.
Three dog kind of week here-- let's atone for last week's debacle and climb back in this thing.
Week 4 Recap
I haven't had a 0-3 weekend for a long while. This week was a bad one. I should have waited to get SF -3.5 or -4, which is what most shops had near kick-off. Vegas had this one right-- they didn't count on the special teams and defensive TDs coming up so big. This marks the second time this season I got hosed by Darren Sproles! But the game has hadicapped correctly-- the Niners we are able to neutrilize the Philly offense, and had enough offense of their own to win it. Were it not for the special teams meltdowns, this would have been an easy cover. Ah, well.
The Jets game was a mess from the beginning. Enough said.
The under got blown on two 4th Q FGs in the Baltimore-Carolina game. Thought I might survive that one, but alas, no.
So we got to regroup. Vegas did okay this week-- they cashed in big on the KC win Monday night and made a little money with the Minnesota win over the favored Falcons. The Cowboys got a big win and now that they are utilizing Murray better, they look like contenders in the NFC East again (until they don't, which is usually the Dallas MO). Colts got an easy and big win over a division rival to pull 2-2 and 2-0 in the division. The Raiders... wow. I had a slight lean on them to make it somewhat competitive, but they trounced and sent the coach packing.
I'm going to take a page from the Aaron Rodgers playbook. It's a long season... R-E-L-A-X.
NFL 2014 Week 4: 0-3
NFL 2014 Season Total: 4-7
The Jets game was a mess from the beginning. Enough said.
The under got blown on two 4th Q FGs in the Baltimore-Carolina game. Thought I might survive that one, but alas, no.
So we got to regroup. Vegas did okay this week-- they cashed in big on the KC win Monday night and made a little money with the Minnesota win over the favored Falcons. The Cowboys got a big win and now that they are utilizing Murray better, they look like contenders in the NFC East again (until they don't, which is usually the Dallas MO). Colts got an easy and big win over a division rival to pull 2-2 and 2-0 in the division. The Raiders... wow. I had a slight lean on them to make it somewhat competitive, but they trounced and sent the coach packing.
I'm going to take a page from the Aaron Rodgers playbook. It's a long season... R-E-L-A-X.
NFL 2014 Week 4: 0-3
NFL 2014 Season Total: 4-7
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