I'm taking the Falcons as short (-1 1/2) home favorites over the visiting Patriots. This is actually a great spot for Atlanta; they are usually very good at home, and very good following a road loss. The perception of this team took a huge hit in not being able to pull out the win at Miami, who is looking more and more like a legit team. The Patriots beat down a very distracted (and possibly imploding) Tampa Bay team with an offensive showing that wasn't terribly impressive considering the defensive woes and drama that the Bucs are dealing with. The New England offense will continue to get better, but I don't think they are enough in sync to go into the Georgia Dome and win.
Though it may come as a surprise, I'm also taking the Steelers as one point favorites. There are a number of reasons I'm pulling the trigger on the Steelers to stop their free fall this week. First, despite the final score, the Steelers were in the Sunday night game at the beginning of the 4th quarter. They were within 4, but a series of miscues led to the lopsided score. That has to sting to choke so bad and go 0-3 in front of the home crowd on a national stage. The Steelers have too much experience and too much pride to implode; I think they will be fired up for this game. I also think the venue is huge; the Steelers will take on the Vikings in London at Wembley stadium. The knock on Pittsburgh has generally been that they are old-- but with age comes experience, and I think the veteran professionalism will help them deal with the travel. The Minnesota defense is the worst unit the Steelers will have faced yet, and that should be enough to get Tomlin his much-needed first win of the season.
I considered heavily taking Jacksonville to cover as home dogs against division rival Indianapolis. I thought the line might be bigger with the Colts coming off a huge win San Francisco, but it's sitting at 8 1/2 to 9. I think, however, that as the weekend approaches, more money may come in on Indy's side and could push it higher. I'd consider a play at +10 1/2, but I'm not sure if there's enough interest in this game to push the line that high this week. Check back on Sunday morning, as if it gets to more than 10, I might pull the trigger on that one. Now, why would I lay money with the worst team in football? Divisional match ups, of course. Historically, divisional double digit dogs-- the 4 D's-- are good, solid, high percentage plays. Bad teams know enough about the good teams in their own division to play them a little closer and tougher than the public expects, so the lines gets skewed on perception versus the reality on the field. This is especially true with the Jags and Colts; Jacksonville has always played the Colts tough, even in the best of the Manning years. The reality is, however, Jacksonville is just dreadful. I am not comfortable picking them +9, and am even nervous at +10 1/2. But we'll watch the line and see what happens Sunday morning.
My two picks for Week 4:
Atlanta -1 1/2
Pittsburgh -1
Tuesday, September 24, 2013
Week 3 Recap
Week 3 turned out to be a pretty chill affair; there were not a lot of tense moments watching the three games I picked this week. Baltimore was in total control most of the game, San Diego's +3 1/2 wasn't in doubt (as the Chargers' ineffective secondary and the late touchdown didn't put the cover in doubt), and save for one late drive that could have put the under in the Philly-KC game in jeopardy, the pick looked solid throughout. In all, it was a pretty rare and beautiful thing-- going 3-for-3 without the late fourth quarter panic is always great.
That being said, I did somewhat regret not playing the Atlanta - Miami game; that one was tight and went to the finish, but Vegas cashed a big, big ticket on that one. As I wrote last week, the line looked like the books were begging for money on Atlanta, which they got. I usually love to play those games, but I had a feeling that Miami might have been over-valued coming off the road win in Indy. Of course, after the Colts went to San Francisco and punched the Niners in the teeth, the Dolphins' win at Lucas Oil Stadium looks even more impressive. In any case, that was a big win for the books-- that game and the Green Bay game were big winners for the house.
The emergent story lines are always interesting in the NFL-- it's what makes the season and the sport in general so compelling. The woes of the Giants and Steelers are something to watch, especially since there is most likely going to be value at some point in these teams as underdogs. The Miami - New Orleans game is going to tell us something about Miami for sure; as big a win as that was for the Dolphins, the Falcons are a team that very often plays poorly on the road. If they can win or at least make it close, they might be the team to beat in that division. I'm also looking at how SF rebounds after a divisional beatdown and a very ugly home loss to a young Colts team (well, most of the team is young, but a large amount of the credit goes to veteran Ahmad Bradshaw for controlling the game late with an impressive performance). Week 4 has historically been a pivotal week; four games into the season, we start to get a picture of where the teams are at, and what possibilities lie ahead.
NFL 2013 Week 3: 3-0
NFL 2013 Season Total: 5-0
That being said, I did somewhat regret not playing the Atlanta - Miami game; that one was tight and went to the finish, but Vegas cashed a big, big ticket on that one. As I wrote last week, the line looked like the books were begging for money on Atlanta, which they got. I usually love to play those games, but I had a feeling that Miami might have been over-valued coming off the road win in Indy. Of course, after the Colts went to San Francisco and punched the Niners in the teeth, the Dolphins' win at Lucas Oil Stadium looks even more impressive. In any case, that was a big win for the books-- that game and the Green Bay game were big winners for the house.
The emergent story lines are always interesting in the NFL-- it's what makes the season and the sport in general so compelling. The woes of the Giants and Steelers are something to watch, especially since there is most likely going to be value at some point in these teams as underdogs. The Miami - New Orleans game is going to tell us something about Miami for sure; as big a win as that was for the Dolphins, the Falcons are a team that very often plays poorly on the road. If they can win or at least make it close, they might be the team to beat in that division. I'm also looking at how SF rebounds after a divisional beatdown and a very ugly home loss to a young Colts team (well, most of the team is young, but a large amount of the credit goes to veteran Ahmad Bradshaw for controlling the game late with an impressive performance). Week 4 has historically been a pivotal week; four games into the season, we start to get a picture of where the teams are at, and what possibilities lie ahead.
NFL 2013 Week 3: 3-0
NFL 2013 Season Total: 5-0
Wednesday, September 18, 2013
NFL Picks, Week 3
There are a lot of interesting games this week, and the lines seem very tight; there are only two divisional match-ups, which I always look at hard (divisional games are usually tighter than people think, so there are usually good plays to be made in these match-ups).
The Atlanta - Miami game is really interesting; Miami is a small favorite to a team that almost made it to the Superbowl last year. Miami has been playing better this year, and is coming off two road wins. However, over the last few years, Miami has actually been better on the road, especially ATS, and has laid all kinds of nasty eggs at home. On the other side, Atlanta has not historically been good on the road-- outside the confines of Georgia Dome, Matty Ice can be very, very cold. Injuries have beset the Falcons as well. I do think that Miami is slightly over-rated, coming off of a win on the road against an over-rated Colts team. The public is backing Atlanta, 87% - 13%, which always makes me nervous. I'm going to stay off this game because I never want to be against Vegas when the bets are so one-sided, and on the other side, I think the lines makers are over-valuing the Dolphins.
I also generally love to play dogs of over two touchdowns-- these have generally been solid plays in the past. But I really can't make a case for Jacksonville being able to do anything against that outstanding Seattle defense. I do, however, worry about a let-down after the SF drubbing, which was the biggest game for the Seahawks in this half of the season.
So where is there value? I think the Ravens are a good play this week. After an opening loss at Denver, and a hard-fought skin-of-the-teeth divisional win against Cleveland, Baltimore will be sharper against Houston. There's also the issue of the absolute drubbing that the Texans put on the Ravens last October in Houston-- embarrassing loss for Baltimore to be sure. I think revenge will play into the motivation for the Ravens squad, as will the specter of going 1-2 in front of the home crowd. Houston is also coming off of two games where they needed to go to the wire to pull out the wins; add the travel to that and you might see a gassed Texans squad show up. I like the Ravens as home dogs + 2 1/2.
The Andy Reid homecoming circus is upon us; the Chiefs have seemed for the last few years just a bit of solid QB play away from being decent. Alex Smith has been good thus far; the Eagles' newly re-vamped offense is an interesting wildcard here. The Eagles defense looks pretty bad, especially in the secondary. I expect this to be a tight game, but the emotional aspect of it makes it a dangerous play. What I do like in this game is the total-- given Philly's bad clock management and the defense getting wore out in the first two games, I look for Chip Kelly to try to slow things down a little, especially since McCoy is running well. If they can run the ball against the Cheifs, they can keep their offense on the field longer (or, more importantly, their defense OFF the field). This translates to fewer possessions and fewer opportunities to score. The KC defense isn't terrible, and should be able to play fairly well against Philly. I will lock this one in at UNDER 51.
As I wrote in my Week 2 Recap, I was disappointed with the results of the Houston / Tennessee game and the Chargers / Eagles game-- if Titans had been able to pull it out and not collapse and the Eagles had better clock management from the coaching staff, there'd be incredible value in this line. However, I still think SD +3 1/2 is a solid play. The Chargers have always been solid playing in the east, and I think the Titans are overvalued here (they beat the Steelers, which has proven a rather shallow win, and they got beat in a competitive divisional game by a Houston team that isn't playing particularly well compared to last year).
So, to recap, my three Week 3 picks are:
Baltimore +2 1/2
UNDER 51 in the Kansas City / Philadelphia game
San Diego + 3 1/2
The Atlanta - Miami game is really interesting; Miami is a small favorite to a team that almost made it to the Superbowl last year. Miami has been playing better this year, and is coming off two road wins. However, over the last few years, Miami has actually been better on the road, especially ATS, and has laid all kinds of nasty eggs at home. On the other side, Atlanta has not historically been good on the road-- outside the confines of Georgia Dome, Matty Ice can be very, very cold. Injuries have beset the Falcons as well. I do think that Miami is slightly over-rated, coming off of a win on the road against an over-rated Colts team. The public is backing Atlanta, 87% - 13%, which always makes me nervous. I'm going to stay off this game because I never want to be against Vegas when the bets are so one-sided, and on the other side, I think the lines makers are over-valuing the Dolphins.
I also generally love to play dogs of over two touchdowns-- these have generally been solid plays in the past. But I really can't make a case for Jacksonville being able to do anything against that outstanding Seattle defense. I do, however, worry about a let-down after the SF drubbing, which was the biggest game for the Seahawks in this half of the season.
So where is there value? I think the Ravens are a good play this week. After an opening loss at Denver, and a hard-fought skin-of-the-teeth divisional win against Cleveland, Baltimore will be sharper against Houston. There's also the issue of the absolute drubbing that the Texans put on the Ravens last October in Houston-- embarrassing loss for Baltimore to be sure. I think revenge will play into the motivation for the Ravens squad, as will the specter of going 1-2 in front of the home crowd. Houston is also coming off of two games where they needed to go to the wire to pull out the wins; add the travel to that and you might see a gassed Texans squad show up. I like the Ravens as home dogs + 2 1/2.
The Andy Reid homecoming circus is upon us; the Chiefs have seemed for the last few years just a bit of solid QB play away from being decent. Alex Smith has been good thus far; the Eagles' newly re-vamped offense is an interesting wildcard here. The Eagles defense looks pretty bad, especially in the secondary. I expect this to be a tight game, but the emotional aspect of it makes it a dangerous play. What I do like in this game is the total-- given Philly's bad clock management and the defense getting wore out in the first two games, I look for Chip Kelly to try to slow things down a little, especially since McCoy is running well. If they can run the ball against the Cheifs, they can keep their offense on the field longer (or, more importantly, their defense OFF the field). This translates to fewer possessions and fewer opportunities to score. The KC defense isn't terrible, and should be able to play fairly well against Philly. I will lock this one in at UNDER 51.
As I wrote in my Week 2 Recap, I was disappointed with the results of the Houston / Tennessee game and the Chargers / Eagles game-- if Titans had been able to pull it out and not collapse and the Eagles had better clock management from the coaching staff, there'd be incredible value in this line. However, I still think SD +3 1/2 is a solid play. The Chargers have always been solid playing in the east, and I think the Titans are overvalued here (they beat the Steelers, which has proven a rather shallow win, and they got beat in a competitive divisional game by a Houston team that isn't playing particularly well compared to last year).
So, to recap, my three Week 3 picks are:
Baltimore +2 1/2
UNDER 51 in the Kansas City / Philadelphia game
San Diego + 3 1/2
Tuesday, September 17, 2013
Week 2 Recap
It was a pretty relaxing weekend, since my only play was on the Thursday night game, and even better since I got to cash that ticket with the Jets. New England's offensive woes continued, and a decent Jets D held on to cover.
Some interesting games this weekend-- Miami and KC have made some strides this year, especially the former. Miami has been over the last year or two one of those teams that seems to hang around in games but can't pull it out (sort of like Tampa Bay this year). Maybe the Dolphins are getting over that hump? The line on the Atlanta / Miami game is interesting-- Vegas is giving a lot of credit to Miami after their road win at Indy, but I wonder if that's just because the Colts are a bit over-rated at the moment (the running game isn't working, and they have the same defensive problems they've had for about 15 years...) In any case, these teams are much improved; KC at Philly is set up to be an interesting watch with the whole Andy Reid homecoming madness.
The Giants got shelled by Denver in the most recent incarnation of the Manning Bowl; Coughlin's squad is a short underdog this week visiting a winless Carolina squad. The Giants tend to be a team that very often gets off to a slow start and then settles down a bit, I'm just not sure this is the week to pull the trigger on backing them.
I was really rooting for Philly to beat the Chargers and for Tennessee to pull out the win against Houston. The Chargers are historically very good ATS on the road, and if the Chargers lost and Tennessee won, there would be a lot of value in the Chargers traveling to the Titans this week. Alas, this did not work. I was hoping to be able to get the Chargers around +6 this week, but the line is sitting at +3.5 at the moment, with most of the money coming in on SD. Best laid plans, indeed.
How bad is Green Bay in coverage? Bad. Granted, they were in total control of that game almost wire-to-wire, but the Washington offense was shooting itself in the foot much of the time. Despite this, the Redskins still had a 100-yard day from Morris and a tenative, often indecisive RG III still registered 320 passing yards and 3 TDs. I don't know when the GB defensive works things out, but between their dismal play and Rodger's playing his brains out, I expect most of their games to resemble shoot outs.
There's a lot of negativity about the defending champs out there; so much so that they are now short underdogs at home versus Houston. The Cleveland game was a slugfest, but divisional games are often like this, even against a perennial doormat like the Browns. I don't think Baltimore is as bad as advertised, or at least, we don't have enough data just yet. This weekend will tell a lot.
In all, things are going well. I'll have my Week 3 picks up soon.
NFL 2013 Week 2: 1-0
NFL 2013 Season Total: 2-0
Some interesting games this weekend-- Miami and KC have made some strides this year, especially the former. Miami has been over the last year or two one of those teams that seems to hang around in games but can't pull it out (sort of like Tampa Bay this year). Maybe the Dolphins are getting over that hump? The line on the Atlanta / Miami game is interesting-- Vegas is giving a lot of credit to Miami after their road win at Indy, but I wonder if that's just because the Colts are a bit over-rated at the moment (the running game isn't working, and they have the same defensive problems they've had for about 15 years...) In any case, these teams are much improved; KC at Philly is set up to be an interesting watch with the whole Andy Reid homecoming madness.
The Giants got shelled by Denver in the most recent incarnation of the Manning Bowl; Coughlin's squad is a short underdog this week visiting a winless Carolina squad. The Giants tend to be a team that very often gets off to a slow start and then settles down a bit, I'm just not sure this is the week to pull the trigger on backing them.
I was really rooting for Philly to beat the Chargers and for Tennessee to pull out the win against Houston. The Chargers are historically very good ATS on the road, and if the Chargers lost and Tennessee won, there would be a lot of value in the Chargers traveling to the Titans this week. Alas, this did not work. I was hoping to be able to get the Chargers around +6 this week, but the line is sitting at +3.5 at the moment, with most of the money coming in on SD. Best laid plans, indeed.
How bad is Green Bay in coverage? Bad. Granted, they were in total control of that game almost wire-to-wire, but the Washington offense was shooting itself in the foot much of the time. Despite this, the Redskins still had a 100-yard day from Morris and a tenative, often indecisive RG III still registered 320 passing yards and 3 TDs. I don't know when the GB defensive works things out, but between their dismal play and Rodger's playing his brains out, I expect most of their games to resemble shoot outs.
There's a lot of negativity about the defending champs out there; so much so that they are now short underdogs at home versus Houston. The Cleveland game was a slugfest, but divisional games are often like this, even against a perennial doormat like the Browns. I don't think Baltimore is as bad as advertised, or at least, we don't have enough data just yet. This weekend will tell a lot.
In all, things are going well. I'll have my Week 3 picks up soon.
NFL 2013 Week 2: 1-0
NFL 2013 Season Total: 2-0
Thursday, September 12, 2013
45 minutes to kick-off...
The line has come down a full point since I locked in my +12 1/2, with most books having +11 1/2 now (even seeing a few +11). The money has evened out in favor of the Jets (now about 60% - 40% NE - NYJ). Looks good. You have to love having the better number when the line starts to correct!
Wednesday, September 11, 2013
NFL Picks, Week 2
As I stated in my first post, I tend to not play too many games, especially at the beginning of the year. As with last week, I'm only getting on one game. The lines seem pretty tight, and thus I will be sitting and watching most of the games this week.
I am, however, ready to pull the trigger on my one and only pick: I'm taking the Jets in the Thursday night match-up with the Pats.
Yes, we all know the Jets suck, and rookie QBs have generally been cannon fodder for New England. This is not, however, your father's Pats squad. Their offense is banged up and not incredibly in sync. Amendola is doubtful, and back-up RB Stevan Ridley is now on the injury report as well. They are depleted, to say the least.
The biggest reason I'm taking the Jets, though, is that it is a divisional game, and divisional games are vastly more often a lot tighter than expected, owing to the teams' familiarity with one another. With rare exceptions, double digit dogs are very solid plays in divisional games. That's why I'm locking in now with the Jets still available at +12 1/2 from a few windows (the line at most shops has moved down to an even 12, showing some movement in favor of a Jets cover). A bet with the Jets is also a bet with Vegas, since 86% of the money is coming in on the Pats.
I don't expect this to be a high scoring affair, and I'm looking for the Jets to do just enough to edge out the cover. Bad teams covering against supposedly good teams is where Vegas makes its money in football; I'd rather be on their side on this one.
I am, however, ready to pull the trigger on my one and only pick: I'm taking the Jets in the Thursday night match-up with the Pats.
Yes, we all know the Jets suck, and rookie QBs have generally been cannon fodder for New England. This is not, however, your father's Pats squad. Their offense is banged up and not incredibly in sync. Amendola is doubtful, and back-up RB Stevan Ridley is now on the injury report as well. They are depleted, to say the least.
The biggest reason I'm taking the Jets, though, is that it is a divisional game, and divisional games are vastly more often a lot tighter than expected, owing to the teams' familiarity with one another. With rare exceptions, double digit dogs are very solid plays in divisional games. That's why I'm locking in now with the Jets still available at +12 1/2 from a few windows (the line at most shops has moved down to an even 12, showing some movement in favor of a Jets cover). A bet with the Jets is also a bet with Vegas, since 86% of the money is coming in on the Pats.
I don't expect this to be a high scoring affair, and I'm looking for the Jets to do just enough to edge out the cover. Bad teams covering against supposedly good teams is where Vegas makes its money in football; I'd rather be on their side on this one.
Tuesday, September 10, 2013
Week 1 Recap
It's always nice to be able to rack up a win the first week, especially in a week where you only play one game. San Diego let a huge lead slip away from them in the second half, but their 28-7 3rd quarter lead was enough padding to not have to sweat the 4 1/2 too much.
As always, Week 1 presented some surprises and confirmed some suspicions. It seems like over the past few years, a lot of people have expected Kansas City to get better, and this year they might (finally) have a chance of living up to that. Granted, they were playing a horrible team, but I'm not sure many people would have called that final score regardless.
The NFC East should be a decent watch this year-- despite the Eagles' shiny new offense, I'm not convinced that any team in this division is that good. I imagine the division will be in play till the very end, since none of these teams really have it to run away with it by early December. The power in the NFC has certainly shifted west-ward, with SF looking pretty impressive and Seattle sporting that stout defense. Arizona should be decent as well-- while I certainly don't think the Cardinals will be challenging for the division, they will likely put up a fight and make some games closer than many would expect.
The NFC North could also be tight; Green Bay's pass defense is just awful, and has been for some time. Their early season offensive kinks historically get worked out over the first few weeks, but they've been able to do nothing about their shoddy coverage in the secondary for years. It'll be good drama to see if either Chicago or Detroit can come together enough to challenge for the division.
And what of the Steelers? It will be interesting to see what unfolds in Pittsburgh and the rest of the AFC North (which went 0-4 in Week 1).
2013 NFL Week 1: 1-0
2013 NFL Season Total: 1-0
As always, Week 1 presented some surprises and confirmed some suspicions. It seems like over the past few years, a lot of people have expected Kansas City to get better, and this year they might (finally) have a chance of living up to that. Granted, they were playing a horrible team, but I'm not sure many people would have called that final score regardless.
The NFC East should be a decent watch this year-- despite the Eagles' shiny new offense, I'm not convinced that any team in this division is that good. I imagine the division will be in play till the very end, since none of these teams really have it to run away with it by early December. The power in the NFC has certainly shifted west-ward, with SF looking pretty impressive and Seattle sporting that stout defense. Arizona should be decent as well-- while I certainly don't think the Cardinals will be challenging for the division, they will likely put up a fight and make some games closer than many would expect.
The NFC North could also be tight; Green Bay's pass defense is just awful, and has been for some time. Their early season offensive kinks historically get worked out over the first few weeks, but they've been able to do nothing about their shoddy coverage in the secondary for years. It'll be good drama to see if either Chicago or Detroit can come together enough to challenge for the division.
And what of the Steelers? It will be interesting to see what unfolds in Pittsburgh and the rest of the AFC North (which went 0-4 in Week 1).
2013 NFL Week 1: 1-0
2013 NFL Season Total: 1-0
Friday, September 6, 2013
2013 NFL Picks, Week 1
Week 1
One of the things I tend to follow closely is the line movements and the money in Vegas. The sports books are often willing to take a gamble (the more conspiracy-minded among us would contend that they often have information not available to everyone else), in that they will move the line cautiously or not at all, even when money is pouring down unevenly on one side (the classic business model for sports books is to move the line to even out the money and take the 10%).
This is one reason why I like San Diego to cover the modest spread when hosting Houston this Monday night. The line opened with the Texans as 3 1/2 point favorites, and despite almost 80% of the money coming in for Houston, the line has moved only modestly. The line may move a bit more, but there is value at the +4 1/2 you can get in Vegas right now.
The public's perception is also important; Vegas banks on the casual bettor over-valuing good teams and underestimating bad teams. The books make a lot of money factoring this into the line and the movements. Good teams in the NFL are rarely as great as perceived by the public, and bad teams are rarely as bad as everyone thinks. There is, in fact, more parity than most of us think (and the numbers bear this out, if you look at ATS records). As such, I tend to look hard at match-ups of teams that are considered "good" and "bad". The Texans - Chargers tilt is a good example. Coming of a strong AFC-South championship year, the Texans have moved up the public rankings, despite getting throttled by New England 41 - 28 in last year's divisional round. For years, San Diego has struggled early in the year, and some of their most talented and complete teams still found ways to lose in September and October. The team has been somewhat retooled, which always adds to the perception of mediocrity. The Chargers had a fairly unremarkable preseason, in which Rivers and his receiving corps looked at times, flat or even just plain bad. The final nail in the coffin was the thrashing the Bolts took at the hands of the 49ers in their last preseason game-- brutal.
This is all to say that the public's perception of San Diego is overwhelmingly negative, and probably more negative than it should be. Conversely, the Houston Texans are overvalued in this situation (not to mention they are crossing two time zones to play a very late 9:20pm Central time West Coast kick off). I am, of course, not saying in any way that San Diego is a good team. It wouldn't surprise me if they have a decent season, given the talent they have, but I don't think they will be "good". In this situation, I do think there is a good chance of them being "good enough" to cover the spread against an over-rated Houston team that will likely be looking ahead to their next 4 games (divisional game versus Tennessee, then Baltimore, Seattle, and San Francisco).
My ONLY Week 1 Pick: San Diego + 4 1/2
One of the things I tend to follow closely is the line movements and the money in Vegas. The sports books are often willing to take a gamble (the more conspiracy-minded among us would contend that they often have information not available to everyone else), in that they will move the line cautiously or not at all, even when money is pouring down unevenly on one side (the classic business model for sports books is to move the line to even out the money and take the 10%).
This is one reason why I like San Diego to cover the modest spread when hosting Houston this Monday night. The line opened with the Texans as 3 1/2 point favorites, and despite almost 80% of the money coming in for Houston, the line has moved only modestly. The line may move a bit more, but there is value at the +4 1/2 you can get in Vegas right now.
The public's perception is also important; Vegas banks on the casual bettor over-valuing good teams and underestimating bad teams. The books make a lot of money factoring this into the line and the movements. Good teams in the NFL are rarely as great as perceived by the public, and bad teams are rarely as bad as everyone thinks. There is, in fact, more parity than most of us think (and the numbers bear this out, if you look at ATS records). As such, I tend to look hard at match-ups of teams that are considered "good" and "bad". The Texans - Chargers tilt is a good example. Coming of a strong AFC-South championship year, the Texans have moved up the public rankings, despite getting throttled by New England 41 - 28 in last year's divisional round. For years, San Diego has struggled early in the year, and some of their most talented and complete teams still found ways to lose in September and October. The team has been somewhat retooled, which always adds to the perception of mediocrity. The Chargers had a fairly unremarkable preseason, in which Rivers and his receiving corps looked at times, flat or even just plain bad. The final nail in the coffin was the thrashing the Bolts took at the hands of the 49ers in their last preseason game-- brutal.
This is all to say that the public's perception of San Diego is overwhelmingly negative, and probably more negative than it should be. Conversely, the Houston Texans are overvalued in this situation (not to mention they are crossing two time zones to play a very late 9:20pm Central time West Coast kick off). I am, of course, not saying in any way that San Diego is a good team. It wouldn't surprise me if they have a decent season, given the talent they have, but I don't think they will be "good". In this situation, I do think there is a good chance of them being "good enough" to cover the spread against an over-rated Houston team that will likely be looking ahead to their next 4 games (divisional game versus Tennessee, then Baltimore, Seattle, and San Francisco).
My ONLY Week 1 Pick: San Diego + 4 1/2
Thursday, September 5, 2013
NFL 2013 - 2014 is here!
Finally, after the football-less spring and summer, and the interminable preseason, the NFL kicks off tonight. Most of America couldn't be happier...
I'm starting this blog to post up my picks for the year. I'm not a tout or a self-affirmed savant, just a guy who's learned a few things about betting the NFL after some really, really good seasons, and a few pretty rough ones. I'm going to put up my picks for fun and discussion, going on record on-line and such. Again, I'm not selling anything (touts in general are the fastest way to blow your bankroll), this is just for kicks. And hey, who doesn't love to get flamed on-line after a week you go 1-4 or something?
Just a few things about me: I'm pretty risk-adverse. I don't take big favorites, generally, and I don't bet a lot of games. I use trends and line movements to make informed decisions, and look at things from a season-long perspective (as such, I don't "rate" plays, everything is one unit-- and I never chase). For me, the goal is to be up a little or close to even for the season, and to have fun with the thrill of following the spreads and money and watching the game with money on the line.
Stay tuned for my ONE pick for Week 1 (I usually never bet Week 1, but in this case, I have a pretty good case to build). Will be up soon.
I'm starting this blog to post up my picks for the year. I'm not a tout or a self-affirmed savant, just a guy who's learned a few things about betting the NFL after some really, really good seasons, and a few pretty rough ones. I'm going to put up my picks for fun and discussion, going on record on-line and such. Again, I'm not selling anything (touts in general are the fastest way to blow your bankroll), this is just for kicks. And hey, who doesn't love to get flamed on-line after a week you go 1-4 or something?
Just a few things about me: I'm pretty risk-adverse. I don't take big favorites, generally, and I don't bet a lot of games. I use trends and line movements to make informed decisions, and look at things from a season-long perspective (as such, I don't "rate" plays, everything is one unit-- and I never chase). For me, the goal is to be up a little or close to even for the season, and to have fun with the thrill of following the spreads and money and watching the game with money on the line.
Stay tuned for my ONE pick for Week 1 (I usually never bet Week 1, but in this case, I have a pretty good case to build). Will be up soon.
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