2013 NFL Picks, Week 1

Week 1

One of the things I tend to follow closely is the line movements and the money in Vegas.  The sports books are often willing to take a gamble (the more conspiracy-minded among us would contend that they often have information not available to everyone else), in that they will move the line cautiously or not at all, even when money is pouring down unevenly on one side (the classic business model for sports books is to move the line to even out the money and take the 10%).  

This is one reason why I like San Diego to cover the modest spread when hosting Houston this Monday night.  The line opened with the Texans as 3 1/2 point favorites, and despite almost 80% of the money coming in for Houston, the line has moved only modestly.  The line may move a bit more, but there is value at the +4 1/2 you can get in Vegas right now. 

The public's perception is also important; Vegas banks on the casual bettor over-valuing good teams and underestimating bad teams.  The books make a lot of money factoring this into the line and the movements.  Good teams in the NFL are rarely as great as perceived by the public, and bad teams are rarely as bad as everyone thinks.  There is, in fact, more parity than most of us think (and the numbers bear this out, if you look at ATS records).  As such, I tend to look hard at match-ups of teams that are considered "good" and "bad".  The Texans - Chargers tilt is a good example.  Coming of a strong AFC-South championship year, the Texans have moved up the public rankings, despite getting throttled by New England 41 - 28 in last year's divisional round.  For years, San Diego has struggled early in the year, and some of their most talented and complete teams still found ways to lose in September and October.  The team has been somewhat retooled, which always adds to the perception of mediocrity.  The Chargers had a fairly unremarkable preseason, in which Rivers and his receiving corps looked at times, flat or even just plain bad.  The final nail in the coffin was the thrashing the Bolts took at the hands of the 49ers in their last preseason game-- brutal.

This is all to say that the public's perception of San Diego is overwhelmingly negative, and probably more negative than it should be.  Conversely, the Houston Texans are overvalued in this situation (not to mention they are crossing two time zones to play a very late 9:20pm Central time West Coast kick off).  I am, of course, not saying in any way that San Diego is a good team.  It wouldn't surprise me if they have a decent season, given the talent they have, but I don't think they will be "good".  In this situation, I do think there is a good chance of them being "good enough" to cover the spread against an over-rated Houston team that will likely be looking ahead to their next 4 games (divisional game versus Tennessee, then Baltimore, Seattle, and San Francisco).

My ONLY Week 1 Pick:  San Diego + 4 1/2