There are a lot of interesting games this week, and the lines seem very tight; there are only two divisional match-ups, which I always look at hard (divisional games are usually tighter than people think, so there are usually good plays to be made in these match-ups).
The Atlanta - Miami game is really interesting; Miami is a small favorite to a team that almost made it to the Superbowl last year. Miami has been playing better this year, and is coming off two road wins. However, over the last few years, Miami has actually been better on the road, especially ATS, and has laid all kinds of nasty eggs at home. On the other side, Atlanta has not historically been good on the road-- outside the confines of Georgia Dome, Matty Ice can be very, very cold. Injuries have beset the Falcons as well. I do think that Miami is slightly over-rated, coming off of a win on the road against an over-rated Colts team. The public is backing Atlanta, 87% - 13%, which always makes me nervous. I'm going to stay off this game because I never want to be against Vegas when the bets are so one-sided, and on the other side, I think the lines makers are over-valuing the Dolphins.
I also generally love to play dogs of over two touchdowns-- these have generally been solid plays in the past. But I really can't make a case for Jacksonville being able to do anything against that outstanding Seattle defense. I do, however, worry about a let-down after the SF drubbing, which was the biggest game for the Seahawks in this half of the season.
So where is there value? I think the Ravens are a good play this week. After an opening loss at Denver, and a hard-fought skin-of-the-teeth divisional win against Cleveland, Baltimore will be sharper against Houston. There's also the issue of the absolute drubbing that the Texans put on the Ravens last October in Houston-- embarrassing loss for Baltimore to be sure. I think revenge will play into the motivation for the Ravens squad, as will the specter of going 1-2 in front of the home crowd. Houston is also coming off of two games where they needed to go to the wire to pull out the wins; add the travel to that and you might see a gassed Texans squad show up. I like the Ravens as home dogs + 2 1/2.
The Andy Reid homecoming circus is upon us; the Chiefs have seemed for the last few years just a bit of solid QB play away from being decent. Alex Smith has been good thus far; the Eagles' newly re-vamped offense is an interesting wildcard here. The Eagles defense looks pretty bad, especially in the secondary. I expect this to be a tight game, but the emotional aspect of it makes it a dangerous play. What I do like in this game is the total-- given Philly's bad clock management and the defense getting wore out in the first two games, I look for Chip Kelly to try to slow things down a little, especially since McCoy is running well. If they can run the ball against the Cheifs, they can keep their offense on the field longer (or, more importantly, their defense OFF the field). This translates to fewer possessions and fewer opportunities to score. The KC defense isn't terrible, and should be able to play fairly well against Philly. I will lock this one in at UNDER 51.
As I wrote in my Week 2 Recap, I was disappointed with the results of the Houston / Tennessee game and the Chargers / Eagles game-- if Titans had been able to pull it out and not collapse and the Eagles had better clock management from the coaching staff, there'd be incredible value in this line. However, I still think SD +3 1/2 is a solid play. The Chargers have always been solid playing in the east, and I think the Titans are overvalued here (they beat the Steelers, which has proven a rather shallow win, and they got beat in a competitive divisional game by a Houston team that isn't playing particularly well compared to last year).
So, to recap, my three Week 3 picks are:
Baltimore +2 1/2
UNDER 51 in the Kansas City / Philadelphia game
San Diego + 3 1/2
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