NFL Picks, Week 4

I'm taking the Falcons as short (-1 1/2) home favorites over the visiting Patriots.  This is actually a great spot for Atlanta; they are usually very good at home, and very good following a road loss.  The perception of this team took a huge hit in not being able to pull out the win at Miami, who is looking more and more like a legit team.  The Patriots beat down a very distracted (and possibly imploding) Tampa Bay team with an offensive showing that wasn't terribly impressive considering the defensive woes and drama that the Bucs are dealing with.  The New England offense will continue to get better, but I don't think they are enough in sync to go into the Georgia Dome and win.   

Though it may come as a surprise, I'm also taking the Steelers as one point favorites.  There are a number of reasons I'm pulling the trigger on the Steelers to stop their free fall this week.  First, despite the final score, the Steelers were in the Sunday night game at the beginning of the 4th quarter.  They were within 4, but a series of miscues led to the lopsided score.  That has to sting to choke so bad and go 0-3 in front of the home crowd on a national stage.  The Steelers have too much experience and too much pride to implode; I think they will be fired up for this game.  I also think the venue is huge; the Steelers will take on the Vikings in London at Wembley stadium.  The knock on Pittsburgh has generally been that they are old-- but with age comes experience, and I think the veteran professionalism will help them deal with the travel.  The Minnesota defense is the worst unit the Steelers will have faced yet, and that should be enough to get Tomlin his much-needed first win of the season. 

I considered heavily taking Jacksonville to cover as home dogs against division rival Indianapolis.  I thought the line might be bigger with the Colts coming off a huge win San Francisco, but it's sitting at 8 1/2 to 9.  I think, however, that as the weekend approaches, more money may come in on Indy's side and could push it higher.  I'd consider a play at +10 1/2, but I'm not sure if there's enough interest in this game to push the line that high this week.  Check back on Sunday morning, as if it gets to more than 10, I might pull the trigger on that one.  Now, why would I lay money with the worst team in football?  Divisional match ups, of course.  Historically, divisional double digit dogs-- the 4 D's-- are good, solid, high percentage plays.  Bad teams know enough about the good teams in their own division to play them a little closer and tougher than the public expects, so the lines gets skewed on perception versus the reality on the field.  This is especially true with the Jags and Colts; Jacksonville has always played the Colts tough, even in the best of the Manning years.  The reality is, however, Jacksonville is just dreadful.  I am not comfortable picking them +9, and am even nervous at +10 1/2.  But we'll watch the line and see what happens Sunday morning.

My two picks for Week 4:

Atlanta -1 1/2
Pittsburgh -1