As I stated in my first post, I tend to not play too many games, especially at the beginning of the year. As with last week, I'm only getting on one game. The lines seem pretty tight, and thus I will be sitting and watching most of the games this week.
I am, however, ready to pull the trigger on my one and only pick: I'm taking the Jets in the Thursday night match-up with the Pats.
Yes, we all know the Jets suck, and rookie QBs have generally been cannon fodder for New England. This is not, however, your father's Pats squad. Their offense is banged up and not incredibly in sync. Amendola is doubtful, and back-up RB Stevan Ridley is now on the injury report as well. They are depleted, to say the least.
The biggest reason I'm taking the Jets, though, is that it is a divisional game, and divisional games are vastly more often a lot tighter than expected, owing to the teams' familiarity with one another. With rare exceptions, double digit dogs are very solid plays in divisional games. That's why I'm locking in now with the Jets still available at +12 1/2 from a few windows (the line at most shops has moved down to an even 12, showing some movement in favor of a Jets cover). A bet with the Jets is also a bet with Vegas, since 86% of the money is coming in on the Pats.
I don't expect this to be a high scoring affair, and I'm looking for the Jets to do just enough to edge out the cover. Bad teams covering against supposedly good teams is where Vegas makes its money in football; I'd rather be on their side on this one.
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