Week 9 Picks

Road favorites are always dangerous, but I like Cincinnati tonight in the Thursday night game. Miami has been an underachieving team at home and an overachieving team on the road for years, at least ATS. They are in a tailspin, and the weird reports coming out of the Dolphins organization have to be a huge distraction. They are coming off a demoralizing loss at New England, and I just don't think this team has the leadership and experience to right the ship this week. The Bengals are in the driver's seat of the AFC North, and I look for them to put the pedal to the metal and really compete in this game. Cincinnati -3.

I'm also backing Atlanta +7 ½ in a divisional game. Atlanta hasn't been playing well at all, but divisional games are always closer than the public thinks. This is a pretty lopsided game too, with a 20-80% split in favor of Carolina. I'll side with Vegas on this one. Atlanta +7 ½.

I love double digit divisional dogs, so I'm all over Chicago +10 ½ on Monday Night Football. The line is high because of Cutler being sidelined, but McCown is competent and has the benefit of facing one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL. Chicago +10 ½.

 I am also playing three overs this week, which is odd, since I don't like to play over the number very often. However, these match-ups are just too good to pass up, and I think I could easily get two of the three. I like Foles to have a big game against the Raiders, and the Raiders will certainly benefit from Philly's woes in the secondary. I also like San Diego and Washington to put up points; the Redskins will likely see Rivers throw all over them, and they will be flinging it all night to catch up. And of course, an underrated back-up QB in Chicago will put up points on one of the worst secondaries in the league. Philly – Oakland OVER 45. San Diego – Washington OVER 51. Chicago – Green Bay OVER 50.

To round things off in the totals department, I like the Pittsburgh – New England under 44. New England's defense will be serviceable, and Pittsburgh (who has the #2 ranked pass defense in the NFL) will combine with NE's offensive woes to make this a slogfest. Pittsburgh – New England UNDER 44.

This is a huge card, but I think these are solid plays.

Week 8 Recap

This was a pretty wild week, to be sure. I went 2-1 for a profitable week that probably shouldn't have been. The Miami – New England game was looking bad for a long time, but that key third quarter turnover was huge for the Pats getting the cover. I was playing on the trend of Tom Brady at home after a loss, but the opposite trend was Miami (a good road team ATS, especially within the division). For a long time it looked like I was on the wrong side, and I should have probably lost this one. I lucked out, which makes up for the Bears pick two weeks ago (a game I lost but should have won).

The Cowboys made for an easy winner, and even the late game theatrics from the Lions didn't put the cover in doubt. I'm very glad I didn't take the under in that game, which got blown on that miracle touch down. The Giants – Eagles game... well, I just blew that one. Enough said.

We didn't learn too terribly much about too many teams this week, though. Green Bay's defense is terrible, the Jets are woefully inconsistent in all three phases of the game, Atlanta is in a tailspin, and Kansas City, though undefeated, looks vulnerable. And the Jags-- despite their decent showing against Denver-- are still the Jags.

NFL 2013 Week 8: 2-1
NFL 2013 Season Total: 12-6

Week 7 Recap

Week 7 Recap

I posted my Week 8 picks already; see below.

My one pick-- the Bears +1 at Washington-- lost, but the game went as I had thought. Lots of offense and poor defense. Unfortunately for my pick, the last TD with 45 seconds left put Washington up four. Sometimes you lose on the last play, even if you are on the right side. Cutler getting hurt didn't help, but really, McCown did a pretty good job. The Bears defense (which I've been saying all season is pretty awful) couldn't muster a stop. We'll get back on track this week.

The Colts got over their sloppy game in San Diego to ruin Manning's homecoming; in retrospect, the debacle with the Chargers was probably a “look-ahead” error in the preparation for a young team. They were ready to play-- the pressure they couldn't muster on Rivers they consistently applied to Manning. Good game, and the over hit (again). Denver's gone over the number in every game thus far. Denver is still a great offense, and a solid run defense, but that secondary is, week in and week out, unable to cover anyone.

Dallas's defense continues to surprise; they are playing more physical than most Cowboys stop units in past years. They abused both QBs, recording three sacks and knocking Foles out of the game, then picking off Barkley three times. Jerry Jones's squad looks to be the class of the NFC East, at least for now.

The KC-Houston game was a case of being late to the party. I looked for Houston to be a value play to cover in Week 6, but it was Week 7 where the Texans were able to regroup and get the cover in a losing effort. That franchise is a mess, and any hopes of staying with the Colts and a surprising Titans team are pretty much dashed, barring a colossal meltdown from the two better teams in the division.

Vegas cashed some serious money courtesy of Rex Ryan. I missed out on this one; I was looking for a bigger number on the Jets, as I love divisional dogs generally. Didn't need the big number, though, since Folk was clutch in OT to ice to Pats. This was great for this week's picks, though, as the Pats are great ATS after a divisional loss.

Of course, the comeback stories are the Steelers and the Giants. The Steelers got a big emotional win over a division rival, and the Giants got off the slide and avoided going 0-7 (albeit against a terrible Minnesota team). Freeman. Yeah, right.

NFL 2013 Week 7: 0-1
NFL 2013 Season Total: 10-5

Week 8 Picks

I'm posting up my picks ahead of my Week 7 Recap as I want to lock in a few key numbers while still available. This board is a little more playable than last week (I had only one pick, which lost, despite going down to the wire).

Despite Miami almost always playing the Pats tough, I'm going with the Pats -6 ½. They will be playing angry after the loss to the Jets (the team they hate losing to more than any other, with the possible exception of the Giants). I think the Pats will be up for this game, and will take out their frustration on a Dolphin team on the slide.  Pats -6 1/2.

I like the Giants and Eagles over. I don't play a lot of overs, but this has historically been a series where the number is high. Coming off a woeful offensive performance against an under-rated Cowboys D, I look for the Eagles to put up points against an improving (but not elite) Giants defense. Yes, they shut out the Vikings offense (the lone touchdown was a special teams play in the Monday night game), and shut down the reigning MVP on the ground. However, the only reason they were able to hold AP to 28 yards rushing was the lack of any passing threat from Freeman. They won't be able to stuff the box against the Eagles, and the Eagles running game should gash them, especially late in the game, and open up opportunities for big plays down the field. The Eagles defense isn't great either, and Eli (who has been... well, better, if not good) and his slowly improving receiving corps should be able to wing it at will. I like this to be a shootout. Giants/Eagles over 53.

I also like the Cowboys as road dogs. This is a squad that has very often played better on the road than at home. Detroit isn't a great team, and I love getting the +3 ½ that is fastly disappearing off the boards. Dallas +3 ½.

Week 7 Picks

This week the lines are pretty tight. I don't see a lot of value plays-- the board looks (to my eyes at least) to be a lot of coin flips. The money is pretty even, too; with only a scant few exceptions, the money bet is pretty evenly split across the board (the Pats-Jets, Cowboys-Eagles, and 49ers-Titans tilts are the only one-sided match-ups this week). Smart bettors don't play coin flips.

My hunch is that Vegas will go 2-1 on the aforementioned lopsided games, but I can't really get a good read on which ones are most likely to cash. Tom Brady as a short favorite on the road is usually a good play, and given the resurgence of the Pats offense the public at least looks for New England to cover. Wait. Oh yeah, injuries. The Pats are again without Amendola, and most importantly, Mayo, Wilfork and Talib (who has been outstanding this year). Even with Talib (who has really been something of a one-man secondary this year, and probably the most significant injury), the Pats have surrendered an ungodly amount of passing yards to date. Gronk has been cleared to play, though. On the other side, you have a stout defense, but an offense led by a rookie QB that has been up and down. Like I said, coin flip, but with Vegas on the Jets.

The public is also backing the Cowboys to cover as 3 point dogs. This is pretty dangerous, as Nick Foles has played very well, and is likely fighting for the starting gig. Dallas is without DeMarco Murray, which is significant. This could be something of a shootout (Vegas is expecting this, as the total is around 56-- a lot of points). Usually I like unders in divisional games, but the NFC East has generally been a division where that's not always a smart play (the last time Foles started against Dallas, there were over 70 scored). I don't trust either defense to keep the number under the total, nor do I like a side in this. It will be interesting to watch though-- I'm particularly interested in seeing if the 'Boys can stop the top-ranked rushing attack with their horrible run defense (ranked 25^th in the league).

The Titans have played pretty well; even the games they've lost they've almost always been competitive. San Francisco has been up and down; they got the cover last week (unfortunately for those of us looking for the Cards to cover), but haven't been the dominant team so many expected at the beginning of the season. I just don't think I can join Vegas in backing the Titans here. Another coin flip.

So where is the value? Not too easy to find. I do, however, like Chicago +1 at Washington. Washington's sputtering offense may have a hard time keeping up with Chicago's, which has played pretty well. Chicago can score points, posting over 20 points in every game but the Saint's game. The Washington defense will have its hands full, and I look for Shanahan's squad to be 1-5 at the end of this one. The wild card here is the Bears' defense, which has allowed 21 or more points in every game. Still, I like Cutler and company to keep pace and edge out RG3 in a shootout. Chicago +1.

Week 6 Recap

Not a great week; I gave back a game, going 1-2 for the week.  The Giants made for an easy winner on Thursday night, as that game went pretty much how I thought it would.  The Giants offense slowed in the second half, but so did Chicago's, so the +8 was a nice cushion to be sure. 

The Arizona – San Francisco game I actually had handicapped pretty well; Arizona was competitive for most of that game, but gave up the cover by one point on a late 4^th quarter field goal. Such is gambling-- and really, this is why you have to take a long view on all of this. Over the course of a season, you are going to get boned on the backdoor cover in the 4^th quarter and lose a game you should have won, but similarly, you are going to make a bad pick that gets bailed out at the last minute too. If the bets are based on good data, trends, and smart analysis of line movements, these games will even out over the whole of a season. I think this is where most people get into trouble-- not managing the bankroll and chasing wins or making multiple unit picks to make up ground. Slow and steady wins the race in this one.

Speaking of making smart plays, boy did I read the Houston game all wrong. That organization seemed to descend into complete disarray this week, which I didn't see coming. I really thought they would pull it together, but the errors and miscues were just too much. Houston actually put up way more yards-- 420 to the Rams' 216, and had more first downs (27 – 15), but the four turnovers and a really efficient performance from Sam Bradford and company created the lopsided score. I'm not sure what Houston is going to do from here, especially with the Schaub injury (at which point we found out who the most classless legion of fans in the NFL are this year).

I'm actually happy with 1-2 this week, because had I been a little more trigger-happy, I would have lost on the Tampa – Philly game too. Vegas had something brewing on that one, and generally I like those plays. I stayed off because the line really didn't move in favor of TB (Vegas was getting greedy), and I had a hunch that the linesmakers were undervaluing Nick Foles. And, yeah, they totally did. Vegas got hammered on this game, because everyone and their Mom was all over the Eagles, and Foles had a monster day (22-31, for 296, 3 TD's and no picks). Tampa was competitive, but the Eagles put them away for good late on some smart plays by Foles.

Tom Terrific put on a clinic in fourth quarter comebacks, though as much as that game was about Brady in the clutch, the other story is about clock management and conservative play calling late in games. It seemed as if the Saints really didn't think the Pats offense was capable of something like that (and certainly, for most of this season, that has been true), or they would have had a little more creativity in the play calling late. Of course, if they Pats lose that game, everyone is second guessing Belichick's decision to go for it on 4^th down. Either way, it was a pretty dramatic game, and one of the better ones of the weekend.

On the other end of the entertainment spectrum, I would wager most of the East Coast clicked off the Monday Night game somewhere in the third quarter of that field goal extravaganza. The Colts couldn't get any pressure on Rivers, but the Charger's couldn't do anything in the red zone, even as they seemed to march down the field with ease. The dropped passes really hurt the Colts, as most of them came on 3^rd down plays. This game had potential to be a fun, back-and-forth affair, but devolved into one of the most snooze-worthy games of the year.

And congratulations to the Jacksonville Jaguars-- they get their first ATS win, covering one of the largest spreads in the modern era. Surprisingly, the Jags were within 2 points midway through the 3^rd quarter before Denver pulled away. Illustrative of the point I've been reiterating all season, that the good teams are never as good as they seem, and the bad ones never as bad as they seem. I wasn't convinced this was still true with Jacksonville this year though-- they have been really, really bad. Unusually bad. But they did get the cover, so good for them (even if they are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS).

NFL 2013 Week 6: 1-2
NFL 2013 Season Total: 10-4

Week 6 Picks

Week 6 is here already; kind of hard to believe, actually.  But the meat of the schedule is upon us, and now we know a little more about the teams and races.

I would be remiss were I not to mention the record being set in the Jacksonville - Denver game.  The line opened up at Denver -28, a new record.  It's around 27 1/2 at most books now.  This is an incredible spread; I still don't even want to contemplate taking Jacksonville, but it's a lot of points.  This looks like a Week 2 college spread when an SEC powerhouse plays a directional school, not an NFL spread.  Good luck to those trying to figure this one out; on one hand, Jacksonville does seem to be really, really bad.  And Denver looks great.  There are just too many ways this could go bad either way, though.

I love the Giants +8 on Thursday night football.  Thankfully, Nick Foles was great when he came in for Vick in Sunday's game and Philly was able to fend off a possible comeback from the G-Men; if the Giants had gotten their first W, the line value wouldn't be as good as it is here.  I think the Giants have a good shot to win this game; the offensive is actually starting to come together.  They can't stop anyone, but the Bears' defense isn't that great either.  I look for this to be a shoot-out, and +8 is a great number to have when you are trading TDs all night.  G-men +8.

Let's talk weird Vegas numbers for a moment.  The line on the Philly - TB game opened up with the Bucs as short (+1.5) road dogs.  92% of the money is on Philly, and the line hasn't budged.  This is exactly what happened midweek with Cincy and NE last week, and the Miami - Atlanta game a few weeks back.  I can't tell, however, if this is because the books are underestimating Foles or they know something we don't.  It seems like a lot of risk to expose yourself to if you aren't sure.  This is one to keep an eye on; I'm not ready to pull the trigger on it, but I look for the tourist money to pour on Philly Saturday and Sunday morning.  They may adjust the line up a bit, which would be the time to play on the Bucs.

I like Arizona this week as well, as double digit road dogs in a divisional game.  Arizona is more competent than most people think, and they usually play SF pretty tough, even in the Bay Area.  I especially love that the 49ers are coming off of a huge blowout win over what was thought to be a formidable opponent in the Texans. Cards +11.

Speaking of the Texans, wither Matt Schaub?  Granted, he's made some bad throws and looked pretty awful a few times, but the guy is still talented.  But the circus around him has gotten crazy-- the guy showing up at his house, Kubiak's lukewarm endorsement, etc.  Reports are, though, that he still has the support of the team.  The lockeroom politics are important, and I look for Houston-- and Schaub-- to bounce back and cover the touchdown at home against a pretty crappy Rams teams.  Texans -7.

Week 5 Recap

The Monday night game capped off a perfect 4-0 weekend, which was a really nice way bounce back from dropping two games the previous week.  I felt pretty good about picking a double-digit dog on Monday Night Football (historically a pretty high-value play), but was pretty surprised with how the Jets (and Geno Smith in particular) were able to bounce back from last week's debacle.  Atlanta is a hot mess, to say the least, though if they could just get their red zone offense figured out, they could be decent.  The thing that makes Atlanta such an interesting storyline is how deep they are buried in the division-- do they fold and pack it up, or try to reel off wins in hopes something crazy happening and looking at a wild card (the odds are way, way, long on that one, now that it seems Jones may be out for most or all of rest of the season). 

Chicago got exposed; the defense ain't your Grandpa's Chicago D.  Though the offense has improved, it's not good enough to hang with a team like the Saints-- and had it not been for some red zone miscues for New Orleans, this game could have been a huge blowout. 

The NFC East continues to be the soap opera of the NFL.  The winless Giants, the Romo INT, health worries for RG III, and the whole Philly experiment.  The Giants' offense woke up a bit in this game, but Philly's secret weapon got to come in when Vick went out-- Nick Foles was very, very good.  I actually think, given Vick's age and tendency to be hurt a third of the season, the Eagles should concentrate on bringing Foles along in that offense.  With those weapons, he could be really effective in a Chip Kelly offense. 

I'm going to stop calling the Colts over-rated-- the clutch, gritty win at home over Seattle (the first SU and ATS loss for the Seahawks of the year) was pretty impressive.  With the apparent meltdown of the reigning AFC South champs, they look good to take the division and go back to the playoffs.

Arizona is slightly under-rated, I think.  The defense is playing well and they are a bit under the radar.  I don't think that they are good, per se, but they aren't terrible.  Bruce Arians is a good coach, and they seem to be coming along. 

NFL 2013 Week 5: 4-0
NFL 2013 Season Total: 9-2

Week 5 Extra Pick

Off of breaking news that Megatron is out for today's game.  Not having to account for Calvin Johnson is a godsend for a terrible Green Bay secondary.  The total on this game was already sky high, since Green Bay hasn't been able to cover anyone this season.  Coming off the bye, which they certainly spent some time working hard on the defensive side of the ball and in the secondary especially, combined with CJ being out, I like the under 55.  Got it locked in, and now looking at the number fall (already at 54 in some books).  GB / DET Under 55 is the play!

Week 5 Picks

This is a tough week; these lines are pretty tight.  The traditional value play would indicate Jacksonville with a ton of points against a team that is 1-4 ATS and 1-4 SU, but I can't lay money with Jacksonville no matter who they are playing against.  It wouldn't surprise me at all if they covered, but I can't bring myself to pull the trigger on that one.

The Saints are an interesting play this week; they've lost something like 11 in a row at Soldier Field.  I think today is the day the streak ends; the Bears D isn't what it used to be, and if it comes down to a shoot out between the recently improved Bears offense and Brees-Sproles-Graham-Colston and company, I'll lay a point with the latter.  New Orleans -1 is the play-- this is the day the streak dies.  Looking at Chicago, they've had close wins over middling teams, and a big win against a reeling Steelers squad.  I think they get exposed here and drop 2 in a row.

I also like Oakland in the divisional match-up with the Chargers.  The Charger's secondary is terrible, and Pryor is surprisingly competent.  Oakland +5.

I love double digit dogs on Monday Night Football.  Yes, the Jets aren't as good as their record indicated, but I'm playing a trend here.  Jets +10. 

Week 4 Recap

After a good 5-0 start to the season, I suppose I was due to give a little back.  I dropped both picks, though I was very glad the line on Jacksonville - Colts game didn't get higher on Sunday, else I would dropped that one too, had I played it. 

So what went wrong?  I pulled the trigger on the Steelers too early.  There will be some value in Pittsburgh at some point, and I just was too quick on them-- I should have had some patience, as Week 4 is their bye, and Week 5 they play the Jets.  If the Jets win this week and go 3-2 (a hard sell since they travel to a reeling and desperate Falcons team), there could be value in that line with Pittsburgh as a serious dog.  In reality, Pittsburgh won't be a solid dog play until a divisional game.  I really thought they'd be more poised at Wembley, but I was just wrong.

The Atlanta game was a little maddening to watch-- though, with some of the coaching calls being made on the Falcon's sideline, it wouldn't have surprised me if Smith would have went for two to win the game had Matty Ice converted the 4th down play for a TD (which would have meant Atlanta wouldn't have covered the 1 1/2).  I underestimated how much better the Pats' secondary has gotten, and how much strides have been made offensively.  Not taking the points with Brady is always risky, and I just flat out had this one called wrong. 

The Colts - Jacksonville game was interesting to see unfold-- is it possible that the Jags really are this bad?  They are now 0-4 ATS and SU, and have scored 31 points this entire season (to put it in perspective, Denver scored 35 points by the 6:37 mark in the 3rd quarter of Week 1).  They've also given up 129 points this season. 

Baltimore seems to be all over the place, though it seems Buffalo was something of a trap game for them, coming between Houston and Miami.  The Giants are a mess-- actually the whole NFC East is pretty shaky.  Seattle's dramatic come-from-behind win was one of those games that makes the NFL so fun to watch (though if I had put down on that one, it would probably be another story).