Sunday, October 6, 2013

Week 5 Picks

This is a tough week; these lines are pretty tight.  The traditional value play would indicate Jacksonville with a ton of points against a team that is 1-4 ATS and 1-4 SU, but I can't lay money with Jacksonville no matter who they are playing against.  It wouldn't surprise me at all if they covered, but I can't bring myself to pull the trigger on that one.

The Saints are an interesting play this week; they've lost something like 11 in a row at Soldier Field.  I think today is the day the streak ends; the Bears D isn't what it used to be, and if it comes down to a shoot out between the recently improved Bears offense and Brees-Sproles-Graham-Colston and company, I'll lay a point with the latter.  New Orleans -1 is the play-- this is the day the streak dies.  Looking at Chicago, they've had close wins over middling teams, and a big win against a reeling Steelers squad.  I think they get exposed here and drop 2 in a row.

I also like Oakland in the divisional match-up with the Chargers.  The Charger's secondary is terrible, and Pryor is surprisingly competent.  Oakland +5.

I love double digit dogs on Monday Night Football.  Yes, the Jets aren't as good as their record indicated, but I'm playing a trend here.  Jets +10. 

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