The Arizona – San Francisco game I
actually had handicapped pretty well; Arizona was competitive for
most of that game, but gave up the cover by one point on a late 4th
quarter field goal. Such is gambling-- and really, this is why you
have to take a long view on all of this. Over the course of a
season, you are going to get boned on the backdoor cover in the 4th
quarter and lose a game you should have won, but similarly, you are
going to make a bad pick that gets bailed out at the last minute too.
If the bets are based on good data, trends, and smart analysis of
line movements, these games will even out over the whole of a season.
I think this is where most people get into trouble-- not managing
the bankroll and chasing wins or making multiple unit picks to make
up ground. Slow and steady wins the race in this one.
Speaking of making smart plays, boy did
I read the Houston game all wrong. That organization seemed to
descend into complete disarray this week, which I didn't see coming.
I really thought they would pull it together, but the errors and
miscues were just too much. Houston actually put up way more yards--
420 to the Rams' 216, and had more first downs (27 – 15), but the
four turnovers and a really efficient performance from Sam Bradford
and company created the lopsided score. I'm not sure what Houston is
going to do from here, especially with the Schaub injury (at which
point we found out who the most classless legion of fans in the NFL
are this year).
I'm actually happy with 1-2 this week,
because had I been a little more trigger-happy, I would have lost on
the Tampa – Philly game too. Vegas had something brewing on that
one, and generally I like those plays. I stayed off because the line
really didn't move in favor of TB (Vegas was getting greedy), and I
had a hunch that the linesmakers were undervaluing Nick Foles. And,
yeah, they totally did. Vegas got hammered on this game, because
everyone and their Mom was all over the Eagles, and Foles had a
monster day (22-31, for 296, 3 TD's and no picks). Tampa was
competitive, but the Eagles put them away for good late on some smart
plays by Foles.
Tom Terrific put on a clinic in fourth
quarter comebacks, though as much as that game was about Brady in the
clutch, the other story is about clock management and conservative
play calling late in games. It seemed as if the Saints really didn't
think the Pats offense was capable of something like that (and
certainly, for most of this season, that has been true), or they
would have had a little more creativity in the play calling late. Of
course, if they Pats lose that game, everyone is second guessing
Belichick's decision to go for it on 4th down. Either way,
it was a pretty dramatic game, and one of the better ones of the
weekend.
On the other end of the entertainment
spectrum, I would wager most of the East Coast clicked off the Monday
Night game somewhere in the third quarter of that field goal
extravaganza. The Colts couldn't get any pressure on Rivers, but the
Charger's couldn't do anything in the red zone, even as they seemed
to march down the field with ease. The dropped passes really hurt
the Colts, as most of them came on 3rd down plays. This
game had potential to be a fun, back-and-forth affair, but devolved
into one of the most snooze-worthy games of the year.
And congratulations to the Jacksonville
Jaguars-- they get their first ATS win, covering one of the largest
spreads in the modern era. Surprisingly, the Jags were within 2
points midway through the 3rd quarter before Denver pulled
away. Illustrative of the point I've been reiterating all season,
that the good teams are never as good as they seem, and the bad ones
never as bad as they seem. I wasn't convinced this was still true
with Jacksonville this year though-- they have been really, really
bad. Unusually bad. But they did get the cover, so good for them
(even if they are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS).
NFL 2013 Week 6: 1-2
NFL 2013 Season Total: 10-4
No comments:
Post a Comment