Week 7 Picks

This week the lines are pretty tight. I don't see a lot of value plays-- the board looks (to my eyes at least) to be a lot of coin flips. The money is pretty even, too; with only a scant few exceptions, the money bet is pretty evenly split across the board (the Pats-Jets, Cowboys-Eagles, and 49ers-Titans tilts are the only one-sided match-ups this week). Smart bettors don't play coin flips.

My hunch is that Vegas will go 2-1 on the aforementioned lopsided games, but I can't really get a good read on which ones are most likely to cash. Tom Brady as a short favorite on the road is usually a good play, and given the resurgence of the Pats offense the public at least looks for New England to cover. Wait. Oh yeah, injuries. The Pats are again without Amendola, and most importantly, Mayo, Wilfork and Talib (who has been outstanding this year). Even with Talib (who has really been something of a one-man secondary this year, and probably the most significant injury), the Pats have surrendered an ungodly amount of passing yards to date. Gronk has been cleared to play, though. On the other side, you have a stout defense, but an offense led by a rookie QB that has been up and down. Like I said, coin flip, but with Vegas on the Jets.

The public is also backing the Cowboys to cover as 3 point dogs. This is pretty dangerous, as Nick Foles has played very well, and is likely fighting for the starting gig. Dallas is without DeMarco Murray, which is significant. This could be something of a shootout (Vegas is expecting this, as the total is around 56-- a lot of points). Usually I like unders in divisional games, but the NFC East has generally been a division where that's not always a smart play (the last time Foles started against Dallas, there were over 70 scored). I don't trust either defense to keep the number under the total, nor do I like a side in this. It will be interesting to watch though-- I'm particularly interested in seeing if the 'Boys can stop the top-ranked rushing attack with their horrible run defense (ranked 25^th in the league).

The Titans have played pretty well; even the games they've lost they've almost always been competitive. San Francisco has been up and down; they got the cover last week (unfortunately for those of us looking for the Cards to cover), but haven't been the dominant team so many expected at the beginning of the season. I just don't think I can join Vegas in backing the Titans here. Another coin flip.

So where is the value? Not too easy to find. I do, however, like Chicago +1 at Washington. Washington's sputtering offense may have a hard time keeping up with Chicago's, which has played pretty well. Chicago can score points, posting over 20 points in every game but the Saint's game. The Washington defense will have its hands full, and I look for Shanahan's squad to be 1-5 at the end of this one. The wild card here is the Bears' defense, which has allowed 21 or more points in every game. Still, I like Cutler and company to keep pace and edge out RG3 in a shootout. Chicago +1.