Week 6 Picks

Week 6 is here already; kind of hard to believe, actually.  But the meat of the schedule is upon us, and now we know a little more about the teams and races.

I would be remiss were I not to mention the record being set in the Jacksonville - Denver game.  The line opened up at Denver -28, a new record.  It's around 27 1/2 at most books now.  This is an incredible spread; I still don't even want to contemplate taking Jacksonville, but it's a lot of points.  This looks like a Week 2 college spread when an SEC powerhouse plays a directional school, not an NFL spread.  Good luck to those trying to figure this one out; on one hand, Jacksonville does seem to be really, really bad.  And Denver looks great.  There are just too many ways this could go bad either way, though.

I love the Giants +8 on Thursday night football.  Thankfully, Nick Foles was great when he came in for Vick in Sunday's game and Philly was able to fend off a possible comeback from the G-Men; if the Giants had gotten their first W, the line value wouldn't be as good as it is here.  I think the Giants have a good shot to win this game; the offensive is actually starting to come together.  They can't stop anyone, but the Bears' defense isn't that great either.  I look for this to be a shoot-out, and +8 is a great number to have when you are trading TDs all night.  G-men +8.

Let's talk weird Vegas numbers for a moment.  The line on the Philly - TB game opened up with the Bucs as short (+1.5) road dogs.  92% of the money is on Philly, and the line hasn't budged.  This is exactly what happened midweek with Cincy and NE last week, and the Miami - Atlanta game a few weeks back.  I can't tell, however, if this is because the books are underestimating Foles or they know something we don't.  It seems like a lot of risk to expose yourself to if you aren't sure.  This is one to keep an eye on; I'm not ready to pull the trigger on it, but I look for the tourist money to pour on Philly Saturday and Sunday morning.  They may adjust the line up a bit, which would be the time to play on the Bucs.

I like Arizona this week as well, as double digit road dogs in a divisional game.  Arizona is more competent than most people think, and they usually play SF pretty tough, even in the Bay Area.  I especially love that the 49ers are coming off of a huge blowout win over what was thought to be a formidable opponent in the Texans. Cards +11.

Speaking of the Texans, wither Matt Schaub?  Granted, he's made some bad throws and looked pretty awful a few times, but the guy is still talented.  But the circus around him has gotten crazy-- the guy showing up at his house, Kubiak's lukewarm endorsement, etc.  Reports are, though, that he still has the support of the team.  The lockeroom politics are important, and I look for Houston-- and Schaub-- to bounce back and cover the touchdown at home against a pretty crappy Rams teams.  Texans -7.