Week 9 Picks

Road favorites are always dangerous, but I like Cincinnati tonight in the Thursday night game. Miami has been an underachieving team at home and an overachieving team on the road for years, at least ATS. They are in a tailspin, and the weird reports coming out of the Dolphins organization have to be a huge distraction. They are coming off a demoralizing loss at New England, and I just don't think this team has the leadership and experience to right the ship this week. The Bengals are in the driver's seat of the AFC North, and I look for them to put the pedal to the metal and really compete in this game. Cincinnati -3.

I'm also backing Atlanta +7 ½ in a divisional game. Atlanta hasn't been playing well at all, but divisional games are always closer than the public thinks. This is a pretty lopsided game too, with a 20-80% split in favor of Carolina. I'll side with Vegas on this one. Atlanta +7 ½.

I love double digit divisional dogs, so I'm all over Chicago +10 ½ on Monday Night Football. The line is high because of Cutler being sidelined, but McCown is competent and has the benefit of facing one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL. Chicago +10 ½.

 I am also playing three overs this week, which is odd, since I don't like to play over the number very often. However, these match-ups are just too good to pass up, and I think I could easily get two of the three. I like Foles to have a big game against the Raiders, and the Raiders will certainly benefit from Philly's woes in the secondary. I also like San Diego and Washington to put up points; the Redskins will likely see Rivers throw all over them, and they will be flinging it all night to catch up. And of course, an underrated back-up QB in Chicago will put up points on one of the worst secondaries in the league. Philly – Oakland OVER 45. San Diego – Washington OVER 51. Chicago – Green Bay OVER 50.

To round things off in the totals department, I like the Pittsburgh – New England under 44. New England's defense will be serviceable, and Pittsburgh (who has the #2 ranked pass defense in the NFL) will combine with NE's offensive woes to make this a slogfest. Pittsburgh – New England UNDER 44.

This is a huge card, but I think these are solid plays.