Sunday, October 25, 2015
Thursday, October 22, 2015
Quick Thursday Pick
Haven't had time to get write ups and picks up yet; I am on SF +6.5, though. I wanted to get that up before kick off. 49ers +6.5!
Tuesday, October 13, 2015
Week 6 Picks
There are a lot of tight games on the board this week, and some that are decent plays. Injuries mar a lot of potential plays, though.
A lot of people are jumping all over Atlanta, though Julio Jones is still questionable. They look attractive-- decent spot, coming off a game they were in severe danger of losing and pulling it out at the end (a gut-check, wake-up call type game), playing a 1-4 Saints team with little left to play for... and only 3 or 3 1/2 points! This has trap game written all over it-- divisional game, on the road, against your rival. I'll stay away, as I have been burned by the Saints already, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Saints cover and/or win the game outright.
Cincinnati and Buffalo opened at a PK, but the line has swung 3 1/2 points. I don't have a good feel for this game, and I think the Buffalo D might be the best defense they've seen thus far. The other game that looks dangerous is the Chargers at Green Bay. San Diego just got kicked in the teeth by the Steelers on national TV and are in danger of losing their season. A loss at Green Bay would pretty much end any post-season hopes. I don't like picking against desperate teams as heavy dogs-- from a football perspective, Rodgers should carve them up good. From a statistical and historical perspective, these are usually bad plays on the favorite. I'll just lay off and see what happens.
I do like a total, however-- Chicago and Detroit. Both have rotten defenses, and Cutler can put up points. Paired with the fact that Stafford just might sling it around as many times as Cutler, I like the offenses to have a field day against some weak competition on both sides. Both teams aren't going anywhere, so a shootout sounds like fun. Chicago-Detroit OVER 43.
The Denver Broncos-- powered by a better defense and lacking the explosive offensive plays of the past few years-- are still undefeated, and actually 4-0 ATS when a dog or favorite of less than a TD. This short favorite spot is a good one for Denver again this week, and I like them to cover at Cleveland. Cleveland is somewhat overvalued right now after their big divisional win over the Ravens, which really had more to do with the Ravens losing than the Browns winning. Denver -4.
The last game (which I'm jumping on now while I can get the -7 1/2) is the Pats at Indy. Tom Brady is lights out when he's on a revenge jag, and the long and bitter rivalry has only gotten worse since the AFC Championship game. The Colts have a terrible defense, and whether Luck plays or not, they aren't going to be able to go TD-for-TD with New England. Road favorites of more than a touchdown are dicey, but I just see the Colts walking into a buzz saw. Pats -7.5.
A lot of people are jumping all over Atlanta, though Julio Jones is still questionable. They look attractive-- decent spot, coming off a game they were in severe danger of losing and pulling it out at the end (a gut-check, wake-up call type game), playing a 1-4 Saints team with little left to play for... and only 3 or 3 1/2 points! This has trap game written all over it-- divisional game, on the road, against your rival. I'll stay away, as I have been burned by the Saints already, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Saints cover and/or win the game outright.
Cincinnati and Buffalo opened at a PK, but the line has swung 3 1/2 points. I don't have a good feel for this game, and I think the Buffalo D might be the best defense they've seen thus far. The other game that looks dangerous is the Chargers at Green Bay. San Diego just got kicked in the teeth by the Steelers on national TV and are in danger of losing their season. A loss at Green Bay would pretty much end any post-season hopes. I don't like picking against desperate teams as heavy dogs-- from a football perspective, Rodgers should carve them up good. From a statistical and historical perspective, these are usually bad plays on the favorite. I'll just lay off and see what happens.
I do like a total, however-- Chicago and Detroit. Both have rotten defenses, and Cutler can put up points. Paired with the fact that Stafford just might sling it around as many times as Cutler, I like the offenses to have a field day against some weak competition on both sides. Both teams aren't going anywhere, so a shootout sounds like fun. Chicago-Detroit OVER 43.
The Denver Broncos-- powered by a better defense and lacking the explosive offensive plays of the past few years-- are still undefeated, and actually 4-0 ATS when a dog or favorite of less than a TD. This short favorite spot is a good one for Denver again this week, and I like them to cover at Cleveland. Cleveland is somewhat overvalued right now after their big divisional win over the Ravens, which really had more to do with the Ravens losing than the Browns winning. Denver -4.
The last game (which I'm jumping on now while I can get the -7 1/2) is the Pats at Indy. Tom Brady is lights out when he's on a revenge jag, and the long and bitter rivalry has only gotten worse since the AFC Championship game. The Colts have a terrible defense, and whether Luck plays or not, they aren't going to be able to go TD-for-TD with New England. Road favorites of more than a touchdown are dicey, but I just see the Colts walking into a buzz saw. Pats -7.5.
Week 5 Recap
Philly had a huge second half and finally got things going offensively, so my New Orleans pick was a bad loser. I split the week with the Bears cashing a SU win as nearly double digit dogs on a late TD.
How bad is the AFC South? The Luck-less Colts have as many wins as the rest of the division combined. The win at Houston with Hasselbeck under center was huge, as the Colts have now played (and won) all of their divisional road games (also, what kind of scheduling madness is that?)
AFC divisions are interesting this year, as the AFC North, East, West, and South all have division leaders with commanding early-season leads. Three of the four have undefeated leaders, and second place in the North and West are .500. The Jets are 3-1, but does anyone really expect an over-achieving Jets team with a weak-ish early schedule to challenge the Pats?
Of the undefeated teams, the Pats and Packers look the best, but the most impressive 5-0 start is probably Cincy-- they seem to have figured out (at the moment at least) how to win games they would have lost in previous years. The comeback win against the Ravens and this weekend's OT thriller to beat Seattle are both impressive, gritty wins.
Speaking of the Seahawks, the NFC West is interesting-- Arizona got back to its winning ways this week, but the Seahawks and Rams lost. Despite a scrappy performance, the SF defense gave up the go-ahead TD late. The Niners are playing better on offense, but their defense just isn't the same (the front office might take note of Jim Harbaugh's Michigan defense that has pitched 3 shutouts in a row-- the fist time that's happened in 20 years in college football). Still, this race is competitive with Arizona now on top at 4-1. At 2-3, the Rams and Seahawks have some work to do.
The Giants are now in sole possesion of first place in the NFC East, as Dallas just can't find a way to make Weedon a winner. Philly is looking less a disaster, and I don't love the match-up with the Giants defense, which couldn't stop Kaepernick in the second half (who came into Sunday's game with one of the worst QBRs in the NFL). The Giants can't run the ball, so I'd expect that Eli will be throwing for his life the rest of the year.
The NFC North has panned out much like the AFC-- Green Bay is in clear control of the situation there. The NFC South-- last year's worst division-- has two undefeated teams. Atlanta gutted out a win over a bad Washington team in OT on a bad throw from Cousins. Carolina is 4-0, but against Tampa Bay, Houston, Jacksonville, and New Orleans (combined record 5-15) and now face a schedule that includes Seattle, Philly, Indy and Green Bay. Err, enjoy that 4-0.
And how about the Steelers on MNF? What a gutsy call at the end of the game-- the Chargers look nearly dead in the water in the division unless Denver crashes and burns (and with the injuries, that could well happen). The Steelers needed that game badly, as they will have an uphill battle chasing down Cincy for the rest of the season.
NFL 2015 Week 5: 1-1
NFL 2015 Season Total: 7-5
How bad is the AFC South? The Luck-less Colts have as many wins as the rest of the division combined. The win at Houston with Hasselbeck under center was huge, as the Colts have now played (and won) all of their divisional road games (also, what kind of scheduling madness is that?)
AFC divisions are interesting this year, as the AFC North, East, West, and South all have division leaders with commanding early-season leads. Three of the four have undefeated leaders, and second place in the North and West are .500. The Jets are 3-1, but does anyone really expect an over-achieving Jets team with a weak-ish early schedule to challenge the Pats?
Of the undefeated teams, the Pats and Packers look the best, but the most impressive 5-0 start is probably Cincy-- they seem to have figured out (at the moment at least) how to win games they would have lost in previous years. The comeback win against the Ravens and this weekend's OT thriller to beat Seattle are both impressive, gritty wins.
Speaking of the Seahawks, the NFC West is interesting-- Arizona got back to its winning ways this week, but the Seahawks and Rams lost. Despite a scrappy performance, the SF defense gave up the go-ahead TD late. The Niners are playing better on offense, but their defense just isn't the same (the front office might take note of Jim Harbaugh's Michigan defense that has pitched 3 shutouts in a row-- the fist time that's happened in 20 years in college football). Still, this race is competitive with Arizona now on top at 4-1. At 2-3, the Rams and Seahawks have some work to do.
The Giants are now in sole possesion of first place in the NFC East, as Dallas just can't find a way to make Weedon a winner. Philly is looking less a disaster, and I don't love the match-up with the Giants defense, which couldn't stop Kaepernick in the second half (who came into Sunday's game with one of the worst QBRs in the NFL). The Giants can't run the ball, so I'd expect that Eli will be throwing for his life the rest of the year.
The NFC North has panned out much like the AFC-- Green Bay is in clear control of the situation there. The NFC South-- last year's worst division-- has two undefeated teams. Atlanta gutted out a win over a bad Washington team in OT on a bad throw from Cousins. Carolina is 4-0, but against Tampa Bay, Houston, Jacksonville, and New Orleans (combined record 5-15) and now face a schedule that includes Seattle, Philly, Indy and Green Bay. Err, enjoy that 4-0.
And how about the Steelers on MNF? What a gutsy call at the end of the game-- the Chargers look nearly dead in the water in the division unless Denver crashes and burns (and with the injuries, that could well happen). The Steelers needed that game badly, as they will have an uphill battle chasing down Cincy for the rest of the season.
NFL 2015 Week 5: 1-1
NFL 2015 Season Total: 7-5
Sunday, October 11, 2015
Week 5 Picks
Busy week and didn't get my recap up for Week 4 (a week in which I didn't play any games, so no big deal). In any case, here we are early Sunday AM with two picks for Week 5.
I will play on the Chicago Bears +9.5 against Kansas City. Even with Alshon Jeffrey out still, there have been enough weapons emerge for Jay Cutler to keep this closer than one might think. Though solid, KC is not exactly an elite team yet. Da Bears +9.5.
I also like New Orleans +6 1/2. Philly is a mess, and has not played a complete game nor have they played well at home. New Orleans saved any chance their season has last week with a gritty win against the Romo-less Cowboys. I like New Orleans to keep this close, and maybe edge out a road win to keep their faint post-season hopes alive. New Orleans +6 1/2.
I will play on the Chicago Bears +9.5 against Kansas City. Even with Alshon Jeffrey out still, there have been enough weapons emerge for Jay Cutler to keep this closer than one might think. Though solid, KC is not exactly an elite team yet. Da Bears +9.5.
I also like New Orleans +6 1/2. Philly is a mess, and has not played a complete game nor have they played well at home. New Orleans saved any chance their season has last week with a gritty win against the Romo-less Cowboys. I like New Orleans to keep this close, and maybe edge out a road win to keep their faint post-season hopes alive. New Orleans +6 1/2.
Friday, October 2, 2015
Week 4 Picks
It's tempting to get on the (almost) double digit divisional underdog Jags as they travel to Indy, as double digit divisional dogs are usually money. They are my favorite plays. However, since losing 22-17 at home to the Jags in his first season, Andrew Luck has blown out Jacksonville 5 times. I also do not like backing double digit chalk, especially for a team that has such a horrible defense. The Colts have more turnovers than anyone in the NFL, and Jacksonville has the fewest number of takeaways. Someone is going to win that battle of mediocrity, and I don't really want any of my money needing a late 4th quarter defensive stop or a late 4th quarter drive for a backdoor cover with these two teams. I'll lay off this one.
The other games are seemingly just as tight-- the London game is always a no play for me. We just don't have enough data on how these play out and what coaches are good at preparing their teams for the travel, nor do we know much about how divisional games go down at Wembley (this is the first one).
Chicago is a mess, but does anyone trust Oakland on the road to cover anything? I don't know the last time the Raiders were road chalk, but I'm guessing some guy named Gruden was the coach. A few games are tempting-- the number on the Philly-Washington game seems low to me at 43, but one can't be sure which Eagles team will show up, or if Washington will even sniff the endzone.
I just have a feeling that this is going to be a weird week-- no good angles, not too many divisional match ups, etc. We could see a lot of winners turn into losers late in games. The Ravens-Steelers game last night is probably just the beginning (imagine holding that Pittsburgh +2 1/2 ticket all night just to see your money disappear in OT?) Long story short, I'm laying off Week 4 entirely. There are some things that could happen that will set up opportunities in Week 5, so I will bide my time and wait and see.
The other games are seemingly just as tight-- the London game is always a no play for me. We just don't have enough data on how these play out and what coaches are good at preparing their teams for the travel, nor do we know much about how divisional games go down at Wembley (this is the first one).
Chicago is a mess, but does anyone trust Oakland on the road to cover anything? I don't know the last time the Raiders were road chalk, but I'm guessing some guy named Gruden was the coach. A few games are tempting-- the number on the Philly-Washington game seems low to me at 43, but one can't be sure which Eagles team will show up, or if Washington will even sniff the endzone.
I just have a feeling that this is going to be a weird week-- no good angles, not too many divisional match ups, etc. We could see a lot of winners turn into losers late in games. The Ravens-Steelers game last night is probably just the beginning (imagine holding that Pittsburgh +2 1/2 ticket all night just to see your money disappear in OT?) Long story short, I'm laying off Week 4 entirely. There are some things that could happen that will set up opportunities in Week 5, so I will bide my time and wait and see.
Week 3 Recap
After two weeks of .500 picks, we got a solid 2-0 winner. Both picks were solid; the Eagles led the game wire to wire, going up 24-0 before the Jets scored their first points. The over in the Colts-Titans game was a little more dramatic, with the number hitting with around 7 minutes to go in the 4th quarter (though, there were still a few TDs to be scored, as the final number went all the way to 68). I'm glad I didn't try to play on the Colts -3-- now 0-3 ATS and 1-2 SU, that TD with less than a minute left blew the cover. I was in a sports book in downtown Vegas and the guys on the Colts side were cheering hard for that 2 point attempt to be good, as OT was their only hope!
Vegas lost on the Pats, who routed the heavy underdog Jags, but did pretty well the rest of the card. The lines were pretty tight and things were mostly even. I'm kicking myself for not getting on the New Orleans game when the number soared to NO +9.5-- that was an easy cover (seriously, who would back any NFC South team to cover 9.5 points?). I was, however, happy with going 2-0 in the early games and decided to just lay off.
The other game I had a slight lean to but decided not to play with Baltimore-- I really thought they would get off the slide and not go 0-3, but that meltdown in the late 4th quarter was hard to watch (less hard, since I didn't lose money on it).
Arizona is, once again, having a great year behind Carson Palmer's (third?) comeback. They still aren't getting the attention, but I have to think that Bruce Arians is just fine with that. Palmer is playing out of his mind, their line is opening up opportunities for the running game regardless of who is holding the ball, and the defense is solid (4 picks and 7 points allowed in Sunday's game). Granted, this is a team that has played New Orleans, Chicago and SF (a combined 1-8 record), so it will be interesting to see them against some better competition.
Seattle looked better and more internally in sync than they have thus far this year, covering as double digit favorites. The big story looming might be Green Bay and how dominant Aaron Rodgers has been thus far this season. He looks like an early-on MVP favorite; he shredded a usually stout KC defense at Lambeau.
In any case, nice to have a winning week and get in the green column for the first time this season.
NFL 2015 Week 3: 2-0
NFL 2015 Season Total: 6-4
Vegas lost on the Pats, who routed the heavy underdog Jags, but did pretty well the rest of the card. The lines were pretty tight and things were mostly even. I'm kicking myself for not getting on the New Orleans game when the number soared to NO +9.5-- that was an easy cover (seriously, who would back any NFC South team to cover 9.5 points?). I was, however, happy with going 2-0 in the early games and decided to just lay off.
The other game I had a slight lean to but decided not to play with Baltimore-- I really thought they would get off the slide and not go 0-3, but that meltdown in the late 4th quarter was hard to watch (less hard, since I didn't lose money on it).
Arizona is, once again, having a great year behind Carson Palmer's (third?) comeback. They still aren't getting the attention, but I have to think that Bruce Arians is just fine with that. Palmer is playing out of his mind, their line is opening up opportunities for the running game regardless of who is holding the ball, and the defense is solid (4 picks and 7 points allowed in Sunday's game). Granted, this is a team that has played New Orleans, Chicago and SF (a combined 1-8 record), so it will be interesting to see them against some better competition.
Seattle looked better and more internally in sync than they have thus far this year, covering as double digit favorites. The big story looming might be Green Bay and how dominant Aaron Rodgers has been thus far this season. He looks like an early-on MVP favorite; he shredded a usually stout KC defense at Lambeau.
In any case, nice to have a winning week and get in the green column for the first time this season.
NFL 2015 Week 3: 2-0
NFL 2015 Season Total: 6-4
Wednesday, September 23, 2015
Week 3 Picks
This is a tough week with not a lot of good angles. I was hoping to get a good number on the Chicago and Seattle game, but with Cutler out, I'll stay off the over (with Cutler, who slings it and puts up points especially late in games, I would have thought about a play on the over, given the Bears have no defense whatsoever). I want no part of the non-divisional double digit chalk out there-- New England and Seattle. The rest of the lines seem to be about where they should be.
The first pick I have is the Indianapolis - Tennessee game, on the over. The Colts offense has looked dismal, but now faces a middling defense after going up against two pretty stout units the last two weeks. At 0-2, Indy needs this game, and I think Luck will be sharp and take care of the ball against a defense he's familiar with. At the same time, there will be opportunities for Mariota in the pass and the option game, so I think they will be able to score against what is usually one of the doormat defenses of the league. The number is depressed because of the Colts' offensive woes, so there is value in the 45 number. Colts/Titans OVER 45.
I've made two plays essentially against Philly this season (the under in Week 1 and Dallas in Week 2), and now I'm flipping around. This is a great situational play-- the Jets come off a huge win on national TV, their defense looked great against an offense that was in disarray, and their offense moved the ball against a bad defense. Philly is 0-2, Chip is under fire, they can't run the ball, etc., etc. I've said it a million times-- no team in the NFL is ever as bad or as good as advertised. The line has reflected the sentiments above about the respective teams, and has shown a huge move from Philly as 2 1/2 point chalk to 2 1/2 point dogs. This is a solid situational play. Eagles +2 1/2.
The first pick I have is the Indianapolis - Tennessee game, on the over. The Colts offense has looked dismal, but now faces a middling defense after going up against two pretty stout units the last two weeks. At 0-2, Indy needs this game, and I think Luck will be sharp and take care of the ball against a defense he's familiar with. At the same time, there will be opportunities for Mariota in the pass and the option game, so I think they will be able to score against what is usually one of the doormat defenses of the league. The number is depressed because of the Colts' offensive woes, so there is value in the 45 number. Colts/Titans OVER 45.
I've made two plays essentially against Philly this season (the under in Week 1 and Dallas in Week 2), and now I'm flipping around. This is a great situational play-- the Jets come off a huge win on national TV, their defense looked great against an offense that was in disarray, and their offense moved the ball against a bad defense. Philly is 0-2, Chip is under fire, they can't run the ball, etc., etc. I've said it a million times-- no team in the NFL is ever as bad or as good as advertised. The line has reflected the sentiments above about the respective teams, and has shown a huge move from Philly as 2 1/2 point chalk to 2 1/2 point dogs. This is a solid situational play. Eagles +2 1/2.
Week 2 Recap
Week 2 started strong, going 2-1 in the first three games, but a 1-2 back half made it a marginal 3-3 loser of a week.
Sometimes sports bettors get in trouble thinking about the X's and O's on the field; the technical game analysis can often lead one to make some bad plays. This happens especially with injured high-profile players. The line usually over compensates for a single player (or two), along the lines of "how could they possibly compete without X player?". Other times, bettors get caught up in trends and ignore some glaring techincal analysis that she or he should have considered. This week, the pick on the Colts was clearly the latter. Andrew Luck has been so good ATS after a loss (in fact, the only loss ATS he's had coming off a loss was ... well, last year in Week 2 against the Eagles), that I lost sight of the terrible situation at corner on that team. They were one more injury away from grabbing some guy from the stands to play in the secondary. Not having anyone capable in coverage was killer; suddenly the Fitzy to Decker combo looked like Young to Rice all night. Of course, the secondary didn't turn the ball over 5 times.... miraculously, the Colts were still in this game late in the 4th, despite the turnovers. Luckily for the Colts, who will likely need time to get their offense (and especially, offensive line) to gel, they play in the worst division in the NFL (yeah, worse than the NFC South this year).
The Cowboys game was a solid winner, and Philly looks to be in some serious trouble. But the easiest winner was Tampa Bay, who won SU as a ten point dog and led the game pretty much wire-to-wire. You got to love those double digit divisional dogs (now 1-0 ATS and 1-0 SU this year).
The Detroit pick was just plain old bad capping, and the Seattle pick was a close one. Wilson giving the ball away against Rodgers sealed their doom, even as it looked like it would go down to the wire on field goals for a good while in the third quarter.
Elsewhere around the league, Vegas got creamed on the New England game. That had trap game written all over it, but the public bit on the Pats and were rewarded with a win. But Vegas won pretty big on the Raiders, Washington, and the Jags. Baltimore looks to be in some trouble; that defense has been on the decline for years, and the injury to Suggs seems to be as demoralizing as it is tactically problematic.
NFL 2015 Week 2: 3-3
NFL 2015 Season Total: 4-4
Sometimes sports bettors get in trouble thinking about the X's and O's on the field; the technical game analysis can often lead one to make some bad plays. This happens especially with injured high-profile players. The line usually over compensates for a single player (or two), along the lines of "how could they possibly compete without X player?". Other times, bettors get caught up in trends and ignore some glaring techincal analysis that she or he should have considered. This week, the pick on the Colts was clearly the latter. Andrew Luck has been so good ATS after a loss (in fact, the only loss ATS he's had coming off a loss was ... well, last year in Week 2 against the Eagles), that I lost sight of the terrible situation at corner on that team. They were one more injury away from grabbing some guy from the stands to play in the secondary. Not having anyone capable in coverage was killer; suddenly the Fitzy to Decker combo looked like Young to Rice all night. Of course, the secondary didn't turn the ball over 5 times.... miraculously, the Colts were still in this game late in the 4th, despite the turnovers. Luckily for the Colts, who will likely need time to get their offense (and especially, offensive line) to gel, they play in the worst division in the NFL (yeah, worse than the NFC South this year).
The Cowboys game was a solid winner, and Philly looks to be in some serious trouble. But the easiest winner was Tampa Bay, who won SU as a ten point dog and led the game pretty much wire-to-wire. You got to love those double digit divisional dogs (now 1-0 ATS and 1-0 SU this year).
The Detroit pick was just plain old bad capping, and the Seattle pick was a close one. Wilson giving the ball away against Rodgers sealed their doom, even as it looked like it would go down to the wire on field goals for a good while in the third quarter.
Elsewhere around the league, Vegas got creamed on the New England game. That had trap game written all over it, but the public bit on the Pats and were rewarded with a win. But Vegas won pretty big on the Raiders, Washington, and the Jags. Baltimore looks to be in some trouble; that defense has been on the decline for years, and the injury to Suggs seems to be as demoralizing as it is tactically problematic.
NFL 2015 Week 2: 3-3
NFL 2015 Season Total: 4-4
Wednesday, September 16, 2015
Week 2 Picks
We have some good looks for Week 2, based on strong trends / situational plays and overreactions to Week 1 games. This has turned out to be a bigger card that usual for Week 2, but I think there is some real value to be found.
Let's talk Thursday-- the Chiefs win big on the road (though had really a very, very poor offensive second half), and the Broncos grit out a tough win against a quality opponent at home. The talk is all about Peyton Manning and how he is--after one game-- washed up (got to love the talking heads). This is all well and good-- getting Denver +3 is a good thing. This should be a close, defensive, divisional game, and I like Denver to keep it within a field goal, if not win it outright. Denver +3.
Speaking of divisional games, I'll take the double digit divisional dog-- the Bucs. Sure, the looked awful, and a thinking man should just light his money on fire rather than lay it with Jameis Winston, right? Well, in the NFL, no team is ever as good or as bad as advertised, and divisional games are usually much, much closer than expected by the betting public. Last year, double digit divisional dogs were 7-2 ATS, with 4 of those wins SU. Tampa Bay +11.
Detroit at Minnesota is an interesting game; Detroit's second-half meltdown in San Diego really hurt their credibility it seems. Minnesota got manhandled in Santa Clara on Monday night and still post as 3 point favorites. I'll take the visiting team to bounce back and play enough defense to edge out the home team in this divisional matchup-- Detroit +3.
Dallas is a solid team, and despite needing a boneheaded mistake from the Giants to win on Sunday, I think the Cowboys will be just fine. The Eagles are 5 1/2 point favorites, and I think the line is overplaying the Dez Bryant injury. I will take 5 1/2 points in this one-- Dallas +5 1/2.
Seattle is also a team that is getting some blowback from Week 1. That's fine-- I think the four points they are getting at Lambeau are pretty good. This should be a tight game, and I like the Seahawks to get back on top and get Green Bay's goat once again. Seattle +4.
The last one-- Andrew Luck after a loss is money ATS. Colts -7.
This is a huge card; I can't remember the last time I had six games, but I really like the angles involved here.
Let's talk Thursday-- the Chiefs win big on the road (though had really a very, very poor offensive second half), and the Broncos grit out a tough win against a quality opponent at home. The talk is all about Peyton Manning and how he is--after one game-- washed up (got to love the talking heads). This is all well and good-- getting Denver +3 is a good thing. This should be a close, defensive, divisional game, and I like Denver to keep it within a field goal, if not win it outright. Denver +3.
Speaking of divisional games, I'll take the double digit divisional dog-- the Bucs. Sure, the looked awful, and a thinking man should just light his money on fire rather than lay it with Jameis Winston, right? Well, in the NFL, no team is ever as good or as bad as advertised, and divisional games are usually much, much closer than expected by the betting public. Last year, double digit divisional dogs were 7-2 ATS, with 4 of those wins SU. Tampa Bay +11.
Detroit at Minnesota is an interesting game; Detroit's second-half meltdown in San Diego really hurt their credibility it seems. Minnesota got manhandled in Santa Clara on Monday night and still post as 3 point favorites. I'll take the visiting team to bounce back and play enough defense to edge out the home team in this divisional matchup-- Detroit +3.
Dallas is a solid team, and despite needing a boneheaded mistake from the Giants to win on Sunday, I think the Cowboys will be just fine. The Eagles are 5 1/2 point favorites, and I think the line is overplaying the Dez Bryant injury. I will take 5 1/2 points in this one-- Dallas +5 1/2.
Seattle is also a team that is getting some blowback from Week 1. That's fine-- I think the four points they are getting at Lambeau are pretty good. This should be a tight game, and I like the Seahawks to get back on top and get Green Bay's goat once again. Seattle +4.
The last one-- Andrew Luck after a loss is money ATS. Colts -7.
This is a huge card; I can't remember the last time I had six games, but I really like the angles involved here.
Week 1 Recap
After all the fiddling and waiting with the line on the Saints game, it was all for naught anyway. The Saints couldn't keep it close enough in the end, even though they had some good looks and chances to win it late. Settling for those two field goals was their undoing, as well as a particularly untimely penalty. Carson Palmer looked great-- you got to hand it to him, after all the injuries and all these years, the guy is playing some really good football.
A closer call than I expected on the Eagles - Falcons total. I still cashed the under, but it was played a little too closely for my liking. Since I at time felt very uneasy at the prospect of starting a new season 0-2, I'll be glad for the split, 1-1 in Week 1.
We started out with a push on Thursday night; the Steelers got the backdoor push late (though, some backing the Steelers late on Thursday were able to get that all-important half point to cash the ticket at +7.5). I especially appreciated Al Michaels' not-so-subtle "ooohs and ahhs" comment when he realize the Steelers had just hit the push. Of course, the big story was another Pats controversy with the headset malfunctions. Any other team and it would have been a non-story, but coming off of more than a decade of Spygate and Deflategate-type shenanigans, it certainly adds fuel to the Pats-hating fire.
Kansas City looked great for the first half; they were pretty much offensively dead in the second half, but had built up a big enough lead to outlast the Texans in the second half. Alex Smith makes good decisions, if not explosive plays. KC could be one of those teams that hangs around and has a chance in about any game, and might just be the best of that division. San Diego looked pretty good at times, but the Chargers will stumble at some point, if history is any guide.
My call to stay off the Washington game was the right one. Even as Washington was pretty competitive for most of the game, they blew the cover late. This had more to do with the usual kind of poor decisions and bad plays we have come to expect from them than anything stellar happening with the Dolphins. I'm still not convinced Tannehill is a QB they can make the playoffs with-- beating the bottom feeder of the NFC East isn't doing much to convince me otherwise.
Oakland, which had made strides in the latter half of last year and is now helmed by the competent Jack del Rio, just looked like the Raiders of the last decade. Cincinnati was the only AFC North team to get a win, but it was likely more about Oakland than the Bengals.
Kudos to Marcus Mariota for making the Bucs look really, really stupid. They took Jameis Winston over him, and Mariota shined bright while Winston threw a pick-6. Mariota could have some early success before there is a lot of tape on him in an NFL context; the sorry defense of the Colts especially could have some trouble there.
Speaking of the Colts, for a team with aspirations to a Super Bowl, they have some serious problems. There has been a shift in how the franchise operates; for years, they were among the best at developing their drafted talent and not making a lot of huge trades and free agent signings. That has changed, and I'm not sure it has had the desired effect. The trade last year for Mark Ingram was a bust, and additions of Frank Gore and Andre Johnson seem dubious at the moment. Frank Gore is a great back, but you have to have an O-line that can rip open some holes. This is one place where Dallas made the smart move-- banking on the idea that their stellar line could make holes and not needed a pricey back to make it work. But the real problem with the Colts is-- and really, always has been-- the defense. It has to get better for them to be competitive.
And speaking of defense, Rex Ryan can certainly coach a defense. I'll be very interested to see if he can still keep games close with New England with his new team, as he generally always did with his (often less talented) Jets teams the last few years. Bufflo is used to get manhandled by the Pats, but Coach Ryan has a track record of playing them tight. I'm not fooled by the Buffalo offense, though-- putting up points on the Colts D is not that hard by any stretch.
It's odd that Peyton Manning didn't look like his unstoppable usual regular-season self, yet the Broncos look like a team better suited for the playoffs this year. The defense looked much-improved, and the running game gained a little more traction. A little less flash and a little more grit-- that was a gutsy, grinder of a win against Baltimore. The Thursday match-up with the Chiefs could be an interesting one.
The Giants - Cowboys game was, well, sort of a weird yet true-to-form tilt in this series. Dallas really, really tried to give this one away, and the Giants just didn't seem to want to really take it. The throw on 3rd down will be debated all week (perhaps as much as the baffling decision-making in the Seahawks - Rams game), but props to Romo and Dunbar for getting down the field so fast to give Witten a chance at the game winner. Dallas was lucky in a way they usually aren't; the Giants once again start the season with a sour taste in their mouths.
NFL 2015 Week 1: 1-1
NFL 2015 Season Total: 1-1
Sunday, September 13, 2015
Saints...
... waited too long and the line went the other way. Had to go with +2 1/2 at -110. I should have just paid the -120 at +3, but that's what happens sometimes.
Saints + 2 1/2. Kick off in 1 minute!
Saints + 2 1/2. Kick off in 1 minute!
Thursday, September 10, 2015
Finally here-- NFL 2015
After the requisite slog through the summer and preseason, the NFL juggernaut gets started tonight with the recently reinstated Tom Brady opening their Super Bowl defense against the always formidible Steelers. As excited as I am for football season to be back, Week 1 is not presenting itself with a whole lot of value opportunities.
The biggest line move was the swing in the Minnesota - SF game. The 49ers started out as 3 1/2 point home chalk, but after the disasters off-the-field, the Harbaugh-less, Gore-less, Smith-less, Borland-less, Willis-less squad is now a 2 1/2 point home dog-- that's a pretty big swing. There's still a lot of talent on that team, but it could also be this season's hot mess. Minnesota is an improving team, now reunited with their star running back. Still, too many questions to back either side.
Since looking at the money is always a good idea, I was a little shocked to see that one of the most lopsided games of the week is Miami and Washington. The Fish are 3 1/2 point road favorites, and are getting over 90% of the money. Washington has been a trainwreck, sure, but Kirk Cousins is an upgrade from RGIII. This might have to do with the "Suh effect"; Miami has had a pretty solid defense of late, and adding a defensive (and expensive) superstar to intimidate QBs is an upgrade. I just don't trust Ryan Tanehill under center with my money. I'll stay off this game, but I'd be the recipient of a minor shock if Miami covers this spread.
The other lopsided game is Philly at Atlanta. I get it; the Eagles have a much-ballyhooed offense and Atlanta has underachieved the past two seasons. But Matt Ryan can look like John Elway at home (and Rex Grossman on the road), making a road trip to Georgia a possibly tough trip. What I do like in this game isn't the spread, but the total. Right now I can get 56 1/2 -- I'll take a Week 1 under play on that truckload of points. Philadelphia/Atlanta UNDER 56 1/2.
It's very tempting to take the Giants-- who play usually very well in Jerry Jones' house-- as road dogs in a divisional game, but I was hoping to get at least 7 1/2 points here. At 6, it's a no play for me. The other divisional games are actually about where they should be (Seattle and St. Louis, Green Bay and Chicago).
This week is hard because of so many match ups between middling teams that don't regularly play oneanother-- Carolina and Jacksonville, Detroit and San Diego, Tennessee and Tampa Bay, Cleveland and the Jets, etc. Gun to my head, I'd take the underdog in just about any of them, but Week 1 is a time for discretion and smart plays. As the old gambler's mantra goes, "Not winning is better than losing".
The only other game I am playing on is New Orleans at Arizona. As bad as the Saints can be on the road, they underacheived as much as Arizona overacheived last year. I'll take the Saints +3, but I will wait a few days to lock it in to see if I can get it at -110 instead of the current -120. I'll still play at -120, though-- solid play.
The biggest line move was the swing in the Minnesota - SF game. The 49ers started out as 3 1/2 point home chalk, but after the disasters off-the-field, the Harbaugh-less, Gore-less, Smith-less, Borland-less, Willis-less squad is now a 2 1/2 point home dog-- that's a pretty big swing. There's still a lot of talent on that team, but it could also be this season's hot mess. Minnesota is an improving team, now reunited with their star running back. Still, too many questions to back either side.
Since looking at the money is always a good idea, I was a little shocked to see that one of the most lopsided games of the week is Miami and Washington. The Fish are 3 1/2 point road favorites, and are getting over 90% of the money. Washington has been a trainwreck, sure, but Kirk Cousins is an upgrade from RGIII. This might have to do with the "Suh effect"; Miami has had a pretty solid defense of late, and adding a defensive (and expensive) superstar to intimidate QBs is an upgrade. I just don't trust Ryan Tanehill under center with my money. I'll stay off this game, but I'd be the recipient of a minor shock if Miami covers this spread.
The other lopsided game is Philly at Atlanta. I get it; the Eagles have a much-ballyhooed offense and Atlanta has underachieved the past two seasons. But Matt Ryan can look like John Elway at home (and Rex Grossman on the road), making a road trip to Georgia a possibly tough trip. What I do like in this game isn't the spread, but the total. Right now I can get 56 1/2 -- I'll take a Week 1 under play on that truckload of points. Philadelphia/Atlanta UNDER 56 1/2.
It's very tempting to take the Giants-- who play usually very well in Jerry Jones' house-- as road dogs in a divisional game, but I was hoping to get at least 7 1/2 points here. At 6, it's a no play for me. The other divisional games are actually about where they should be (Seattle and St. Louis, Green Bay and Chicago).
This week is hard because of so many match ups between middling teams that don't regularly play oneanother-- Carolina and Jacksonville, Detroit and San Diego, Tennessee and Tampa Bay, Cleveland and the Jets, etc. Gun to my head, I'd take the underdog in just about any of them, but Week 1 is a time for discretion and smart plays. As the old gambler's mantra goes, "Not winning is better than losing".
The only other game I am playing on is New Orleans at Arizona. As bad as the Saints can be on the road, they underacheived as much as Arizona overacheived last year. I'll take the Saints +3, but I will wait a few days to lock it in to see if I can get it at -110 instead of the current -120. I'll still play at -120, though-- solid play.
Monday, January 5, 2015
2014 Season Recap
With holiday travel, I wasn't able to get the Week 16 and 17 Recaps up, so I'll include them here.
Week 16 was a solid week, with a 3-1 mark. The Cards couldn't keep it close, so that one was a loser. The other three-- the Jets, the Under in the Indy/Dallas debacle, and the Redskins were money. Week 17 was a split decision, going 1-1. I tried to overthink the Pats game; history and trends indicated a play on the Bills, but I just thought that this would be a weird game where the Pats starters get pulled and somehow still get the cover. So I go 4-2 in the final two weeks of the season. I never play playoff games; there are just too many variables and too few strong trends in the playoffs, especially since the Wild Card was introduced.
So in all, I ended up with a half-unit loss for the year. Those two terrible weeks really killed me, but was able to rally and get mostly / almost even by year's end.
The Wild Card weekend featured some good games-- let's hope that trend continues. There are some interesting story lines at play-- I have to think New England was really rooting for Pittsburgh, as the Ravens have twice before booted the Pats out of the playoffs, and have dominated Indianapolis in Foxboro for 15 years or so. The Manning vs. Indy slant is also compelling, especially since these two teams match up surprisingly well. That's a winnable game for the Colts, and the Broncos know it. How crazy would it be to see the AFC Championship game in Indy, with the Colts hosting the team with the most historically-based vitriol for them?
On the NFC side, the Carolina Panthers were in the same spot the Seahawks were-- unheralded division winners that "unfairly" get a home game, then beat down the heavily favored Wild Card team (that year, the Saints). I don't expect Carolina to win, but as low scoring as that game could be given both defenses, it could only take one big play to flip that game. Crazier things have happened. The marquee match up is, of course, the Cowboys and the Packers. After the emotionally-fraught and controversial game against Detroit, Dallas has to go to Green Bay and face a team that has played lights out the entire year at home. Yet, Dallas is 8-0 on the road this year-- including that signature win in Seattle earlier this year.
The way this all shakes out will be fun to watch, and this week, at least, we can imagine the ludicrous scenarios that could be. Vegas favorites indicate a Packers-Seahawks and Broncos-Pats Championship weekend, but I'd be shocked if there wasn't at least one team that played on the Divisional weekend to be there. Carolina - Indianpolis Superbowl anyone?
NFL 2014 Week 16: 3-1
NFL 2014 Week 17: 1-1
NFL 2014 Season Total: 27-25-1 (-0.5 units)
NFL 2013 Season Total: 27-18 (+7.2 units)
Week 16 was a solid week, with a 3-1 mark. The Cards couldn't keep it close, so that one was a loser. The other three-- the Jets, the Under in the Indy/Dallas debacle, and the Redskins were money. Week 17 was a split decision, going 1-1. I tried to overthink the Pats game; history and trends indicated a play on the Bills, but I just thought that this would be a weird game where the Pats starters get pulled and somehow still get the cover. So I go 4-2 in the final two weeks of the season. I never play playoff games; there are just too many variables and too few strong trends in the playoffs, especially since the Wild Card was introduced.
So in all, I ended up with a half-unit loss for the year. Those two terrible weeks really killed me, but was able to rally and get mostly / almost even by year's end.
The Wild Card weekend featured some good games-- let's hope that trend continues. There are some interesting story lines at play-- I have to think New England was really rooting for Pittsburgh, as the Ravens have twice before booted the Pats out of the playoffs, and have dominated Indianapolis in Foxboro for 15 years or so. The Manning vs. Indy slant is also compelling, especially since these two teams match up surprisingly well. That's a winnable game for the Colts, and the Broncos know it. How crazy would it be to see the AFC Championship game in Indy, with the Colts hosting the team with the most historically-based vitriol for them?
On the NFC side, the Carolina Panthers were in the same spot the Seahawks were-- unheralded division winners that "unfairly" get a home game, then beat down the heavily favored Wild Card team (that year, the Saints). I don't expect Carolina to win, but as low scoring as that game could be given both defenses, it could only take one big play to flip that game. Crazier things have happened. The marquee match up is, of course, the Cowboys and the Packers. After the emotionally-fraught and controversial game against Detroit, Dallas has to go to Green Bay and face a team that has played lights out the entire year at home. Yet, Dallas is 8-0 on the road this year-- including that signature win in Seattle earlier this year.
The way this all shakes out will be fun to watch, and this week, at least, we can imagine the ludicrous scenarios that could be. Vegas favorites indicate a Packers-Seahawks and Broncos-Pats Championship weekend, but I'd be shocked if there wasn't at least one team that played on the Divisional weekend to be there. Carolina - Indianpolis Superbowl anyone?
NFL 2014 Week 16: 3-1
NFL 2014 Week 17: 1-1
NFL 2014 Season Total: 27-25-1 (-0.5 units)
NFL 2013 Season Total: 27-18 (+7.2 units)
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