Got a game back this week with a solid 2-1 showing; the stalled late drive in the Atlanta-New York game cost me the backdoor cover, but the New England and Tampa Bay plays were easy winners for sure. I may have gotten a little greedy trying to get all three games I dropped the previous week back; I liked the situational aspect of the loser, but Matty Ice once again was less-than-stellar on the road.
There were some really interesting games from a fan perspective this weekend-- the Bucs and Saints was certianly a thriller, and I always love those crazy comebacks (though I'm not sure if that's more props to Cleveland or a Herm-esque "c'mon man" to the Titans D). The Monday night game was competitive for a goodly portion, and watching Russell Wilson turn busted plays into big plays was cool to behold.
The oft-maligned NFC had a good showing in Week 5, with the Giants, Cowboys, and Eagles getting wins and the Redskins looking not-terrible against the defending champs. The Cowboys look pretty solid, but everyone seems to be waiting with bated breath for the usual swoon-- this weekend against Seattle seems a likely place for them to fold, but if history serves a lesson, they could win this one outright and then drop three-of-four moving ahead.
The other team that I'm waiting to start a skid is the San Diego Chargers. To date, they've looked pretty decent, with a huge signature win against Seattle. Usually given to slow starts, the Bolts seem to have it together. But I'm not on the San Diego bandwagon yet-- I usually like them as late season dogs, but I just don't trust them to cover reliably as favorites. The shutout win over the Jets probably has more to do with the Jets being god awful. How much longer is Rex Ryan employed? This season is all but done for them, sitting at 1-4.
NFL 2014 Week 4: 2-1
NFL 2014 Season Total: 6-8
Wednesday, October 8, 2014
Wednesday, October 1, 2014
Week 5 Picks
Time to get back on track here-- Week 5 has some interesting match ups and some teams in some pretty decent spots.
I always take double digit underdogs in divisional games, so I'm making a play on Tampa Bay +10 1/2 at New Orleans. This one is a bit scary-- NO traditionally plays very, very well at home, especially coming off a loss. But I'll take the statistics on this one and play on the Bucs. Tampa Bay +10 1/2.
Not-High-Fiving-Tom-Brady is almost always money after a loss. Last year, the Pats were home underdogs in only one game-- against the visiting Broncos. The Pats won outright as 2 1/2 point dogs. Before that, it had been 8 years! I like taking QBs like Brady, Manning and Brees as home dogs, so I'll take the Patriots this week getting a small bit. New England +1.5.
I like the situational angle in the Atlanta - New York game-- the Falcons coming off a bad loss to a subpar team, and the Giants coming off a huge nationally-televised pasting of a divisional rival. Atlanta doesn't play extremely well on the road, but I like them to cover the 4. Atlanta +4.
Three dog kind of week here-- let's atone for last week's debacle and climb back in this thing.
I always take double digit underdogs in divisional games, so I'm making a play on Tampa Bay +10 1/2 at New Orleans. This one is a bit scary-- NO traditionally plays very, very well at home, especially coming off a loss. But I'll take the statistics on this one and play on the Bucs. Tampa Bay +10 1/2.
Not-High-Fiving-Tom-Brady is almost always money after a loss. Last year, the Pats were home underdogs in only one game-- against the visiting Broncos. The Pats won outright as 2 1/2 point dogs. Before that, it had been 8 years! I like taking QBs like Brady, Manning and Brees as home dogs, so I'll take the Patriots this week getting a small bit. New England +1.5.
I like the situational angle in the Atlanta - New York game-- the Falcons coming off a bad loss to a subpar team, and the Giants coming off a huge nationally-televised pasting of a divisional rival. Atlanta doesn't play extremely well on the road, but I like them to cover the 4. Atlanta +4.
Three dog kind of week here-- let's atone for last week's debacle and climb back in this thing.
Week 4 Recap
I haven't had a 0-3 weekend for a long while. This week was a bad one. I should have waited to get SF -3.5 or -4, which is what most shops had near kick-off. Vegas had this one right-- they didn't count on the special teams and defensive TDs coming up so big. This marks the second time this season I got hosed by Darren Sproles! But the game has hadicapped correctly-- the Niners we are able to neutrilize the Philly offense, and had enough offense of their own to win it. Were it not for the special teams meltdowns, this would have been an easy cover. Ah, well.
The Jets game was a mess from the beginning. Enough said.
The under got blown on two 4th Q FGs in the Baltimore-Carolina game. Thought I might survive that one, but alas, no.
So we got to regroup. Vegas did okay this week-- they cashed in big on the KC win Monday night and made a little money with the Minnesota win over the favored Falcons. The Cowboys got a big win and now that they are utilizing Murray better, they look like contenders in the NFC East again (until they don't, which is usually the Dallas MO). Colts got an easy and big win over a division rival to pull 2-2 and 2-0 in the division. The Raiders... wow. I had a slight lean on them to make it somewhat competitive, but they trounced and sent the coach packing.
I'm going to take a page from the Aaron Rodgers playbook. It's a long season... R-E-L-A-X.
NFL 2014 Week 4: 0-3
NFL 2014 Season Total: 4-7
The Jets game was a mess from the beginning. Enough said.
The under got blown on two 4th Q FGs in the Baltimore-Carolina game. Thought I might survive that one, but alas, no.
So we got to regroup. Vegas did okay this week-- they cashed in big on the KC win Monday night and made a little money with the Minnesota win over the favored Falcons. The Cowboys got a big win and now that they are utilizing Murray better, they look like contenders in the NFC East again (until they don't, which is usually the Dallas MO). Colts got an easy and big win over a division rival to pull 2-2 and 2-0 in the division. The Raiders... wow. I had a slight lean on them to make it somewhat competitive, but they trounced and sent the coach packing.
I'm going to take a page from the Aaron Rodgers playbook. It's a long season... R-E-L-A-X.
NFL 2014 Week 4: 0-3
NFL 2014 Season Total: 4-7
Wednesday, September 24, 2014
Week 4 Picks
This board is tight-- I think most of the lines are right about where they should be, so if you are looking for value (and you always should be!) this is not the week.
Interesting line movements, though-- SF began at -4 over Philly, and with everyone and his mother coming in on the Eagles, the line has moved to... SF -5 or -5 1/2. I actually like SF in this spot-- desperate for a win to stay apace in the division, facing a hot team that eeked out victories from behind the first three weeks, the last two especially. I really wanted this game around a field goal, but I'm going to play with Vegas on this one. SF -5.
The other game Vegas is really pounding is Detroit at the Jets. Coming off a win against Green Bay, the Lions should be an easy cash against the turnover prone Jets who just got destroyed on national television, right? Geno Smith actually has a history of following up those multi-INT games with solid performances. The Jets D is still pretty legit. I'll hitch my wagon to the books on this one, too. Jets +1.5.
I can get a total of 41 in the Carolina-Baltimore match up. I like the under in that game; I look for the Carolina defense to get back on track and don't trust their offense to do much in this contest. Under 41.
Interesting line movements, though-- SF began at -4 over Philly, and with everyone and his mother coming in on the Eagles, the line has moved to... SF -5 or -5 1/2. I actually like SF in this spot-- desperate for a win to stay apace in the division, facing a hot team that eeked out victories from behind the first three weeks, the last two especially. I really wanted this game around a field goal, but I'm going to play with Vegas on this one. SF -5.
The other game Vegas is really pounding is Detroit at the Jets. Coming off a win against Green Bay, the Lions should be an easy cash against the turnover prone Jets who just got destroyed on national television, right? Geno Smith actually has a history of following up those multi-INT games with solid performances. The Jets D is still pretty legit. I'll hitch my wagon to the books on this one, too. Jets +1.5.
I can get a total of 41 in the Carolina-Baltimore match up. I like the under in that game; I look for the Carolina defense to get back on track and don't trust their offense to do much in this contest. Under 41.
Week 3 Recap
Split this weekend to go 4-4 overall; I stand by the Broncos pick, just got tripped up by the TD in OT (I don't have the stats in front of me, but the number of OT games that don't end up 3 point games is very low). In a certain sense, the Broncos were undone by their own offensive power-- moving down the field to score the TD and conversion made the Seahawks wary of trying to win with the kicking game, I'm sure. It was a smart play, but cost me a game I probably should have won (man, was I rooting for the 2 point conversion to fail!).
The Colts were an easy cover basically wire-to-wire. I don't usually take favorites in division game, but this one had blowout written all over it. It was a nice spot for the previously 0-2 (but playing well) Colts to get a much needed win and the cover.
Vegas took it on the chin in the Cowboys game-- for most of that game, the linesmakers looked like geniuses. They don't win them all, and this one cost. Luckily for the books, the Pats narrowly dispatched the Raiders and gave up the cover. That helped even things out a bit.
NFL 2014 Week 3: 1-1
NFL 2014 Season Total: 4-4
The Colts were an easy cover basically wire-to-wire. I don't usually take favorites in division game, but this one had blowout written all over it. It was a nice spot for the previously 0-2 (but playing well) Colts to get a much needed win and the cover.
Vegas took it on the chin in the Cowboys game-- for most of that game, the linesmakers looked like geniuses. They don't win them all, and this one cost. Luckily for the books, the Pats narrowly dispatched the Raiders and gave up the cover. That helped even things out a bit.
NFL 2014 Week 3: 1-1
NFL 2014 Season Total: 4-4
Wednesday, September 17, 2014
NFL Week 3 Picks
The Chargers' big win really screwed up a possible good play this week. Taking a team off a big upset win is usually very bad news; I was hoping to get the Chargers a little more desparate and under-valued for this week's match-up against the Bills. They are 2 1/2 point dogs at this point, which would have been more had SD not pulled out the surprising win over the defending champs. I still like the Bolts to cover here, but not enough to trust Rivers with my money at that number. Slight lean and no play.
Speaking of setting up good plays-- I'm rooting hard for the Texans this week. Not because I'm betting on them, but because ANOTHER loss for the Giants will set them up as huge dogs in the Week 4 match up in primetime against division rival Washington. If the Team from Washington can manage to upset Philly, even better. I'd love to get NY as a double digit divisional dog on a nationally televised game.
It looks like Vegas is setting up a trap game an the Cowboys. The Cowboys are a huge public team, and they are very, very short favorites on the road this week in St. Louis. The Rams have looked like this year's Jags (i.e., woeful), and the Cowboys got a W last week... so Dallas -1 looks like a no-brainer, right? With 92% of the money on Dallas, the line isn't moving. That very, very often indicates that Vegas knows something we don't. Or at least, they know enough to be willing to overload the books on the Dallas side and gamble. Vegas doesn't always win, but they win more of these games than they lose. That being said, I don't see how Dallas loses this game-- and that's saying a lot, since each year the Cowboys are extraordinarily adept at inventing new ways to lose. I'll stay off this one, and will enjoy seeing is Vegas cashes or takes it on the chin.
If I did some digging, I might be able to find the last time an 0-2 team was an 11-point favorite, but suffice to say that's a rare thing indeed. I actually think the Saints have a good chance of covering here; it just depends on how aggressively they come after Cassell. If they rattle him like New England did, the Vikings could get blown out again. However, you'd be out of your mind to eat that much chalk on a 0-2 team, even one with Drew Brees. Interesting to see how this one plays out.
More interesting storylines in the lines this week than good plays, but I have two this week...
So what to do about the Colts this week? Like New Orleans, this is a pretty good team that's 0-2. The Colts came up short in a game on the road to the Super Bowl runner-up, and should have beat Philly at home. At 0-2, the Wild Card will be very, very difficult to catch. They only road to the playoffs is probably to win the division, and they will be looking to pound the Jags. Indy's defensive unit did a mostly decent job against Philly, except for Sproles, which no Indy D in the last ten years has been able to contain. They ran the ball effectively. Reggie Wayne is back and playing out of his mind (including fumble recoveries and tackling-- the dude does everything). The Jags are-- generously speaking-- modestly improved over last year and shouldn't stand a chance... but-- the stats are what the stats are. Road favorites in divisional games don't cover the number very well. I think this game is an exception, as had the Colts beat Philly, this line would be around 10, 10 1/2 points. I'm risking getting whacked by the same team in consecutive weeks, but I'm taking the Colts -6 1/2.
The big game, of course, is the rematch of The Big Game. Denver has a somewhat improved defense and a very, very bad taste in their mouths from the pasting they got in Manning's 3rd SB appearance. Here's some interesting research I did today: Peyton Manning has faced the team in the regular season that knocked him out of the playoffs in the previous year five times in his career. Manning is 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU in these situations. He is often knocked as the greatest regular season QB (a deliberatly back-handed compliment), but the stats are there-- Manning gets his revenge. Denver +5.
Speaking of setting up good plays-- I'm rooting hard for the Texans this week. Not because I'm betting on them, but because ANOTHER loss for the Giants will set them up as huge dogs in the Week 4 match up in primetime against division rival Washington. If the Team from Washington can manage to upset Philly, even better. I'd love to get NY as a double digit divisional dog on a nationally televised game.
It looks like Vegas is setting up a trap game an the Cowboys. The Cowboys are a huge public team, and they are very, very short favorites on the road this week in St. Louis. The Rams have looked like this year's Jags (i.e., woeful), and the Cowboys got a W last week... so Dallas -1 looks like a no-brainer, right? With 92% of the money on Dallas, the line isn't moving. That very, very often indicates that Vegas knows something we don't. Or at least, they know enough to be willing to overload the books on the Dallas side and gamble. Vegas doesn't always win, but they win more of these games than they lose. That being said, I don't see how Dallas loses this game-- and that's saying a lot, since each year the Cowboys are extraordinarily adept at inventing new ways to lose. I'll stay off this one, and will enjoy seeing is Vegas cashes or takes it on the chin.
If I did some digging, I might be able to find the last time an 0-2 team was an 11-point favorite, but suffice to say that's a rare thing indeed. I actually think the Saints have a good chance of covering here; it just depends on how aggressively they come after Cassell. If they rattle him like New England did, the Vikings could get blown out again. However, you'd be out of your mind to eat that much chalk on a 0-2 team, even one with Drew Brees. Interesting to see how this one plays out.
More interesting storylines in the lines this week than good plays, but I have two this week...
So what to do about the Colts this week? Like New Orleans, this is a pretty good team that's 0-2. The Colts came up short in a game on the road to the Super Bowl runner-up, and should have beat Philly at home. At 0-2, the Wild Card will be very, very difficult to catch. They only road to the playoffs is probably to win the division, and they will be looking to pound the Jags. Indy's defensive unit did a mostly decent job against Philly, except for Sproles, which no Indy D in the last ten years has been able to contain. They ran the ball effectively. Reggie Wayne is back and playing out of his mind (including fumble recoveries and tackling-- the dude does everything). The Jags are-- generously speaking-- modestly improved over last year and shouldn't stand a chance... but-- the stats are what the stats are. Road favorites in divisional games don't cover the number very well. I think this game is an exception, as had the Colts beat Philly, this line would be around 10, 10 1/2 points. I'm risking getting whacked by the same team in consecutive weeks, but I'm taking the Colts -6 1/2.
The big game, of course, is the rematch of The Big Game. Denver has a somewhat improved defense and a very, very bad taste in their mouths from the pasting they got in Manning's 3rd SB appearance. Here's some interesting research I did today: Peyton Manning has faced the team in the regular season that knocked him out of the playoffs in the previous year five times in his career. Manning is 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU in these situations. He is often knocked as the greatest regular season QB (a deliberatly back-handed compliment), but the stats are there-- Manning gets his revenge. Denver +5.
Week 2 Recap
Sometimes you are on the right side and still lose, and sometimes you are on the wrong side and still win. The Eagles-Colts tilt on Monday Night was the former for sure-- a whole lot of unlikely events had to happen in a very short span of time to blow my Colts pick.
Unlikely Thing #1: Chuck and Pep have a collective dumbass attack on the sideline and decide not to run the ball for the first down, knowing that worst case they could take the 3 points from a Vinatieri field goal to go up by 10 points with 5:08 left... on a night when the Colts could actually run the ball effectively against the Philly stop unit.
Unlikely Thing #2: Andrew Luck throws an interception trying to convert on a play that should have been a running play (see above)
Unlikely Thing #3: Related to #2-- this should never have been a pick. Refs miss a painfully obvious call on Boykin.
Unlikely Thing #4: Refs miss an obvious call (see #3) then randomly compensate by calling a highly questionable horsecollar tackle on Landry, which gives the Eagles the first down and 15 yards. Sproles awesomeness happens for 51 yards, and yeah, well, there you have it.
So a perfect storm of suck can really derail an otherwise solid play. Over the course of the season, you are going to have them. It happens. Taking the long view over 5 months of the NFL, these kinds of losses will be cancelled out by a few wins the you edge out when you make a bad call. So we regroup. It was still a profitable week, going 2-1 (or, 2-1-0-1 if you want to use wins/losses/ties/moral victories [which don't pay as well]). That puts me at 3-3 for the year, but on the right track.
Speaking of getting a call wrong and getting bailed out.. remember when I didn't take the Steelers because I couldn't get them at +3 and took the under instead? The fact that the line was Steelers +2 1/2 saved me a loss there; the under was a pretty easy cash.
The KC-Denver game was just as expected-- huge divisional dog on the road covers the spread. I was a little worried when Jamal Charles went out early, but the Chiefs hung tough and took Denver to the wire.
I'll take a winning week any week, even a 2-1.
NFL 2014 Week 2: 2-1
NFL 2014 Season Total: 3-3
Unlikely Thing #1: Chuck and Pep have a collective dumbass attack on the sideline and decide not to run the ball for the first down, knowing that worst case they could take the 3 points from a Vinatieri field goal to go up by 10 points with 5:08 left... on a night when the Colts could actually run the ball effectively against the Philly stop unit.
Unlikely Thing #2: Andrew Luck throws an interception trying to convert on a play that should have been a running play (see above)
Unlikely Thing #3: Related to #2-- this should never have been a pick. Refs miss a painfully obvious call on Boykin.
Unlikely Thing #4: Refs miss an obvious call (see #3) then randomly compensate by calling a highly questionable horsecollar tackle on Landry, which gives the Eagles the first down and 15 yards. Sproles awesomeness happens for 51 yards, and yeah, well, there you have it.
So a perfect storm of suck can really derail an otherwise solid play. Over the course of the season, you are going to have them. It happens. Taking the long view over 5 months of the NFL, these kinds of losses will be cancelled out by a few wins the you edge out when you make a bad call. So we regroup. It was still a profitable week, going 2-1 (or, 2-1-0-1 if you want to use wins/losses/ties/moral victories [which don't pay as well]). That puts me at 3-3 for the year, but on the right track.
Speaking of getting a call wrong and getting bailed out.. remember when I didn't take the Steelers because I couldn't get them at +3 and took the under instead? The fact that the line was Steelers +2 1/2 saved me a loss there; the under was a pretty easy cash.
The KC-Denver game was just as expected-- huge divisional dog on the road covers the spread. I was a little worried when Jamal Charles went out early, but the Chiefs hung tough and took Denver to the wire.
I'll take a winning week any week, even a 2-1.
NFL 2014 Week 2: 2-1
NFL 2014 Season Total: 3-3
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