Week 10 Picks

Three games this week, which I think are exceptionally strong plays.  The first team I'm taking is the Rams to cover +10 at Indy; Indianapolis is coming off a dramatic late comeback road win against a division rival, and will be playing an inferior St. Louis team a week before they travel to second-place Tennessee.  This is a classic trap game, especially with Indy's perennially suspect run defense.  Zac Stacy should be able to help Kellen Clemens out by setting up short third downs.  Despite the loss to the Titans (a fairly decent squad), they played them close until the 4th quarter.  I like the Rams to cover and make this a closer game than expected.  St. Louis +10.

I am also taking the under 58.5 in the Denver - San Diego game.  Yes, Denver's defense sucks, especially in the secondary, and Manning seems to be able to throw TDs at will, but this is a huge number for a divisional game.  The Broncos have pushed the number over every game this season, but have only played one division game-- against the Raiders.  This is something of a must-win for both squads, with the Chiefs still 9-0; Denver doesn't want to fall another game behind, and San Diego needs this to stay alive down the stretch.  I think that these teams will play it a little more conservative, especially with John Fox out.  Denver should be able to pressure Rivers and disrupt the pass game, even if they can't cover the receivers.  If they can get any kind of pressure on him, he's prone to mistakes.  I think the under cashes this week for the first time, but barely.  Denver - San Diego under 58.5.

I also like Tampa Bay +3 at home against the Dolphins.  Tampa Bay is desperate for a win, and I like these mid- to late-season match ups, especially as home dogs.  The line opened at the Dolphins -3.5, and is down to -2 1/2 or -3 now.  The Bucs are an interesting 0-8 team, as they have actually been competitive in most of their games.  In fact, they've lost by 3 or fewer points 4 times-- to the Jets, Saints, Cardinals, and Seahawks. I suspect that this game will be won or lost on a late 4th quarter field goal, so taking the +3 team is a solid play.  It wouldn't surprise me in the least (especially with all the turmoil in Miami right now) if the Bucs get off the schneid this week on Monday Night Football (I also love underdogs on MNF).  Tampa Bay +3.