Three games this week, spanning Thursday night to the Monday Night game. I like the Colts -2 1/2 to take care of business and put a stranglehold on the division. Coming off an embarrassing, unfocused loss to an inferior Rams squad was a total "look ahead" moment that we often see in the NFL. The Colts were more focused on the divisional match-up with the improved Titans, in Nashville. They flat-out weren't up for the game last Sunday, and I have every reason to believe that Pagano will have his team ready to take it to the 2nd place team in the division. Had Tennessee not lost to the lowly Jags, there would be more value here, but the severity of the loss on Sunday preserved enough for me to make a play on Indy. Also, there's a strong trend here-- Andrew Luck is a perfect 7-0 ATS after a loss. Indianapolis -2 1/2.
I like the over in the Philly - Washington game. Washington hasn't been able to hold anyone but the Raiders under 20 points the entire season, and give up a lot of yardage to decent QBs (341 to Rivers, 351 to Peyton Manning, 385 to Stafford, 480 to Rodgers, etc). Foles isn't quite in this league of QBs, but I look for him to have a 300 yard day. Conversely, Washington is 5th in the league in yards per game, and I don't like Philly's defense to keep the passing game in particular in check (this a squad that gave up 280 yards to Scott Tolzien on Sunday). Philadelphia - Washington over 52 1/2.
I'm going against the conventional wisdom of the week, and going with a solid trend. Brady and Belichick after a bye. Brady and Belichick as dogs (Tom Terrific is, since 2003, 17-7 ATS as an underdog). I can still find +3 for the Pats and I'll take it. I think Carolina is solid, but slightly overrated, and the Pats after a bye are usually money. New England +3.
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