Andrew Luck is now 8-0 ATS after a loss, but that's the only good news to come from this week of picks. The total on the Philly - Washington game was a loser, and as soon as the red zone turnover happened, I knew it was a goner. The Redskins didn't recover from that blunder psychologically until the 4th quarter, but it was too late then. Philadelphia was up big most of the game, so just played to eat clock in the second half; had Washington been able to score instead of turn the ball over early, they would have been trying to score. One play can really screw up total plays (it's sort of like playing the under and having a special teams or defensive score-- those almost always blow the under).
The Pats were the right play, even in a losing effort. The call at the end was what it was-- really, the Pats should not have been in that situation. I'm sure there are a lot of unhappy gamblers holding NE +3 tickets this morning. Sometimes you have the right side and win, sometimes you have the right side and lose.
The other controversial call was the penalty against SF, negating a turnover that very likely could have changed the outcome of the game. I thought hard about taking the 49ers with the 3 1/2 (which would have been a winner), but NO generally plays so well at home. Still, the 49ers probably should have won this game, and were it not for that penalty, very well might have. It was a good game to watch without having a ticket in hand, though.
The most anticipated game of the weekend was by far the undefeated Chiefs at the Broncos, with the 9-0 squad 8 1/2 point underdogs. I heard a lot of chatter from a lot of smart bettors that there were fairly significant amounts of sharp money on the Broncos. I found that interesting, since more than a TD favorites are seldom sharp plays. In the end, the Broncos covered, but that game could have been closer, save a few plays. The number went under (for the second week in a row, and only the second time all year for Denver).
The Giants won again, which sets them up for a possible run at the division. I think the Eagles are the team to beat, and the Cowboys are hanging around, but the Giants could make a run. Vegas certainly seems to think so-- the Cowboys, Eagles, and Giants are all 60:1 to win the Superbowl (and the other NFC East team, the Redskins, are even worse-- 150:1). So, Vegas thinks the Giants have a better shot than the Redskins, and the same(-ish) chances of the division-leading Eagles.
NFL 2013 Week 10: 1-2
NFL 2013 Season Total: 19-12
No comments:
Post a Comment