Week 12 Picks

Each year, there's usually a team or two that feel very difficult to handicap.  I feel this way about the Colts, even though I'm 2-0 this season with Colts games.  There are a lot of reasons to pick Arizona -2 1/2 this week-- Arizona is still fairly underrated, being overshadowed greatly by the Seahawks and 49ers in the division, Bruce Arians is a good coach who is obviously very, very familiar with the Colts, the Cards have the #2 rushing defense in the NFL, and the Colts seem to be one of those young teams that plays either up to, or down to, their opponents (this is a squad that has beat Seattle, San Francisco and Denver, but lost to St. Louis, Miami, and San Diego, and barely eeked out a road win at Tennessee last week).  But is playing Arizona really playing "down"?  This is a solid football team.  I think Arizona is probably the correct play, but I just can't get over the nagging feeling that the Colts, with a long week, won't be underestimating their former coach's team.  This game is essentially a PK, as I bet this game is lost or won on a field goal.  If I could get Indianapolis +3, I'd take it.  But at 2 1/2, I'll pass.  

The other game I'd like to get +3 on is the Denver - NE game.  Tom Brady as a home underdog, after a loss, in a place where Manning has rarely played well.  At +2 1/2, it's a no play for me, not that it would surprise me for the Pats to win outright-- I just don't feel comfortable with the half point, so I'm staying off this game.

Back to the AFC South-- I'm playing on the Jags this week, +10, along with the under 43 1/2.  This is strictly a trend play; double digit divisional dogs are usually solid plays.  This has all the makings of a 17 - 9 kind of game, and I'll take the Jags to cover in a low-scoring affair.  The Texas still have the best passing defense in the league, but are actually giving up yards on the ground.  Both teams should be able to run the ball, and will elect to, since both have terrible QB situations.  This should play out as a clock-devouring, churning out yards via the run type, kick field goals kind of game.  Jacksonville +10, UNDER 43 1/2.

I've been burned on overs in NFC East games, but I'm going back for one more to make up a game.  I'll take over the 46 in the Cowboys - Giants match-up.  This is a play against the Cowboys D more than anything (giving up the most YPG than any other team).  With Eli starting to throw it around better, I will take the over (which has been pushed down due to the Giants' relatively low-scoring recent outings).  This number should probably be around 50 / 51, so I think there's some value in the number here.  Cowboys - Giants OVER 46.

I also like Minnesota to cover on the road against Green Bay.  AP is probable, and it's going to be cold.  I think the Vikings D has enough to pressure Tolzien into mistakes.  Minnesota has been more competitive in a lot of games than one would expect from a 2-win team.  I like the Vikes +5 on the road in a cold and bitter divisional game.  Minnesota +5.