A perfect 3-0 week, coming off the Monday Night game. Tampa Bay looked solid for much of the first half, but gave up a TD on a brilliant Miami drive to close the half. The Bucs played poorly in the 3rd, with Miami taking the lead. Miami, however, could not run the ball and more importantly, couldn't stop the run, even with the bottom of Tampa RB bench. I suspected Tampa would win, so sitting with the +3 all night felt pretty good.
I really liked the St. Louis pick, and it definitely cashed. They made the Colts look like Pee-Wee football blooper reel, and dominated all three phases of the game. I think I was right about it being a trap game; Indy just wasn't ready, and wasn't competitive. I thought the Colts would be down in the game, and maybe come back to win by a field goal or late TD rally, but man, not so much. They dodged a bullet, however, with Tennessee losing to the Jags, so they are still up 2 games in the division. This actually sets up some value for Week 11, I think. This one, was, however, and easy win-- I always fear the back-door cover / late rally from Luck, but this was a hole way too deep.
I'm especially proud of the getting the right call on the Denver - San Diego under. After 8 straight overs for Denver, one finally came in under the number-- and by 10.5 points. This one was a little more of a sweat, but it worked out in the end. I actually figured it to be closer, and it very well easily could have been.
Baltimore decided to make the AFC North a little more interesting and hand the Bengals their second consecutive loss in OT. This had to be a deflating loss for Cincinnati, after the amazing rally to tie the game. Mentally, the Bengals are a little banged up-- this is a team that should be 8-4, not 6-4 with Cleveland and Baltimore still hanging around. I don't think the Bengals have much to worry about from Cleveland (which has been playing better, but somewhat overachieving I think), but Baltimore could get hot and make a run at them. Cincinnati has a must-win this coming week against the Browns, before having to face the Chargers and the Colts. If the Ravens can string together some wins here late, the December 29th Ravens - Bengals tilt in Cincy could be for a playoff berth.
The Cowboys took a beating from Brees and company all night Sunday. The Dallas defense has been shuffling players due to injury all year, and it seems to finally have caught up with them. Still, I expected this to be a closer game, but the offense couldn't pick up the slack. They started the game running the ball well, which was an auspicious start for the 'Boys, since long, sustained, clock-eating drives are needed to limit the possessions of the explosive Saints offense at home. Too quickly, though, they got in a big hole and had to abandon the game plan somewhat (and Rob Ryan's defense adjusted and closed up some of the holes in the run defense). This was just one of those games where the Cowboys just couldn't get anything to happen. This loss (with Philly's win at Green Bay [a game that most people--especially in the NFC East-- penciled in as a loss]), ties the division at a mediocre 5-5 each for the Eagles and Cowboys. Washington is still in it, and amazingly, the Giants have now won 3 in a row to be 3-6. Think about it-- on Sunday morning, Dallas was the top spot in the division, at 5-4, and the Giants were 2-6. The Cowboys are on a bye next week, and the Giants have a winnable home game against the Rodgers-less Packers. Then, the Giants get the Cowboys at home. After the dust settles on these games, it's entirely conceivable that the Giants and the Cowboys could both be sitting at 5-6. For Philly and Washington, this week's match-up is huge-- either of them could make a run at shoring up the division in the closing weeks, but they need this game.
Seattle is a tough team to handicap-- every season there are teams that I can't seem to get a handle on and almost never bet. It seems the Seahawks are always that team for me; some weeks they play close games, others, they blow out. Their beatdown of the Falcons this week didn't really tell us much, other than confirming that the Falcons are really, really bad. The NFC West is interesting, as it still seems unclear that SF is going to be able to challenge Seattle for the division. The loss to Carolina looks on the face more about a maturing Carolina team that is enjoying great defensive play and more consistent QB leadership-- but, I'm not totally convinced. I think the 49ers might be a bit overrated, and by extension, so might be Carolina. Everyone is high on the Panthers right now, but I'm not sure I'm buying it just yet.
NFL 2013 Week 10: 3-0
NFL 2013 Season Total: 18-10
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