Time to rebound... I wish I had the Steelers at +3. I'm not playing it at +2 1/2, just too risky. This is a series I generally always take the dog at a field goal. This series is almost always decided by a field goal or less-- 10 of 13 now in the Flacco - Big Ben era. All the off field stuff and the 1/2 point are making me stay off this one. I wouldn't be surprised if the Steelers win this outright, but I'm just going to play safe and stay away.
I do, however, like the total here. The last time these two teams scored over 43 points was in the playoffs for the 2010 season (game played in January 2011). I can get 45 now, so I'm taking the UNDER 45 in this game.
One trend I love is playing double digit divisional dogs. Divisional games are always closer than the public thinks, and Vegas has no problem printing tickets for double digit chalk all weekend. For that reason, I'm taking the now-left-for-dead Kansas City at +12 1/2 against Denver.
Andrew Luck is money ATS after a loss. I'll take the Colts to outlast the Eagles at home in a potential shootout. Colts -3.
I'm interested to see what happens with the Pats and Vikings game. The line movement is pretty interesting, as the line has moved from Pats -5 to Pats -3.5 with nearly 2/3 of the money on New England. If we had more like 80% on the Pats, I'd bite on the Vikings. This is one to watch on Sunday morning when all the tourist money comes into Vegas...
Thursday, September 11, 2014
Week 1 Recap
Starting out with a loser is always rough, but it's a long season, so I'm not getting too worked up about it. It's my own fault-- I almost always play with the house (but never against), and I left two winners on the board with Atlanta and Miami (in both cases, the heavily bet sides [Pats and Saints] didn't move the line too terribly much, as Vegas was trying to attract money to the Pats and Saints to clean up.. and clean up they did!). Miss out on those.
The Green Bay was a little frustrating because of the rather unusual Packer miscues. Some of those 1st half mistakes were just killer, and seemed to happen just when the momentum was seemingly shifting. Those mistakes against that team-- that's how competitive games and 'dog covers turn into blowouts. I really was banking on GB playing sharp and smart, but they let me down.
The Dallas game was just a debacle. Those early mistakes cost what should have been a solid Dallas cover.
At least my total play was good-- I was worried when Philly basically spotted the Jags 17 points, but they kept it under the number (barely).
The most entertaining game might have been the "almost" comeback from the heart attack Colts. I love watching Andrew Luck bring that team roaring back, as he did so many times last season. Not quite enough to tie it late, but after the first half, coming back to get the cover was pretty solid.
Man, the Giants suck. Not as bad as my picks for Week 1, but it was close.
NFL 2014 Week 1: 1-2
NFL 2014 Season Total:1-2
The Green Bay was a little frustrating because of the rather unusual Packer miscues. Some of those 1st half mistakes were just killer, and seemed to happen just when the momentum was seemingly shifting. Those mistakes against that team-- that's how competitive games and 'dog covers turn into blowouts. I really was banking on GB playing sharp and smart, but they let me down.
The Dallas game was just a debacle. Those early mistakes cost what should have been a solid Dallas cover.
At least my total play was good-- I was worried when Philly basically spotted the Jags 17 points, but they kept it under the number (barely).
The most entertaining game might have been the "almost" comeback from the heart attack Colts. I love watching Andrew Luck bring that team roaring back, as he did so many times last season. Not quite enough to tie it late, but after the first half, coming back to get the cover was pretty solid.
Man, the Giants suck. Not as bad as my picks for Week 1, but it was close.
NFL 2014 Week 1: 1-2
NFL 2014 Season Total:1-2
Thursday, September 4, 2014
The 2014 NFL Season is here!
After countless annoying preseason games, a few decent college games to whet our collective appetites for football, and a lot of fanfare, the 2014 NFL season is here. Finally. More importantly, the quest to make money is upon us-- as the saying goes, "Money won is sweeter than money earned". I ended up +7.2 units for the season last year, which I'll take any year-- any time you are in the black you should be happy.
I have a few picks this week, though early season (and especially Week 1) can be dangerous. One of the worst things a gambler can do is listen to the inane punditry on ESPN and sports radio-- who's going to be improved, who's over-rated, etc. They rarely base their opinions on hard data and aren't terribly useful-- they are after all providing entertainment, not data-driven analysis that is useful.
The first pick I'm making this week is a play on Green Bay. I think the line should be around a field goal for this match up between two really good teams, so to get the Packers at +5 1/2 is value. Superbowl winners often have slow starts, but that's really not what I'm counting on; the Packers will be ready and looking to prove last year's disappointment was an aberration. The underwhelming season Green Bay had last year was mostly due to the significant injury at QB. They really never recovered from the 4-0-1 stretch they had in the middle of season, but still managed to squeak into the playoffs, losing by a field goal to the 49ers. The Packers will be looking to right the ship, and probably still remember the last time they played in Seattle-- the horrible officiating call that cost them the game. I like the value on the dog here. Green Bay +5 1/2.
I like the UNDER 53 in the Jacksonville - Philadelphia game. 53 points is a lot of points, especially when one of the teams is Jacksonville. This is a team that scored over 20 points only three times last year; I don't expect a great deal from their offense in this game either. Philly can score, but should also be able to control the clock late in the game if needed. I just don't see 53 points in this game. Jacksonville / Philadelphia UNDER 53.
I like the Cowboys as home dogs of 5 points-- SF is good, but Dallas has enough to hang in there, especially at home. SF ground out short wins against top-tier teams last year, and it wouldn't surprise me if they won here. I do, however, think 5 is a lot to cover on the road, especially with a team like Dallas that can really put up the points at time. Dallas +5.
I almost pulled the trigger on the NE and MIA game; Miami has always played the Pats tough at home, and I'd be all over this if this were Week 3. There's just too much that can go wrong the first week, and the professionalism of Pats' organization (something lacking in Miami last year) probably insulates them from some of the risk. I'll stay off. I'm also staying off two other "leans"-- the under in the Denver / Indy game and the Chargers making a close game out in the desert. Interesting match-ups, but not enough to risk any capital this year.
I have a few picks this week, though early season (and especially Week 1) can be dangerous. One of the worst things a gambler can do is listen to the inane punditry on ESPN and sports radio-- who's going to be improved, who's over-rated, etc. They rarely base their opinions on hard data and aren't terribly useful-- they are after all providing entertainment, not data-driven analysis that is useful.
The first pick I'm making this week is a play on Green Bay. I think the line should be around a field goal for this match up between two really good teams, so to get the Packers at +5 1/2 is value. Superbowl winners often have slow starts, but that's really not what I'm counting on; the Packers will be ready and looking to prove last year's disappointment was an aberration. The underwhelming season Green Bay had last year was mostly due to the significant injury at QB. They really never recovered from the 4-0-1 stretch they had in the middle of season, but still managed to squeak into the playoffs, losing by a field goal to the 49ers. The Packers will be looking to right the ship, and probably still remember the last time they played in Seattle-- the horrible officiating call that cost them the game. I like the value on the dog here. Green Bay +5 1/2.
I like the UNDER 53 in the Jacksonville - Philadelphia game. 53 points is a lot of points, especially when one of the teams is Jacksonville. This is a team that scored over 20 points only three times last year; I don't expect a great deal from their offense in this game either. Philly can score, but should also be able to control the clock late in the game if needed. I just don't see 53 points in this game. Jacksonville / Philadelphia UNDER 53.
I like the Cowboys as home dogs of 5 points-- SF is good, but Dallas has enough to hang in there, especially at home. SF ground out short wins against top-tier teams last year, and it wouldn't surprise me if they won here. I do, however, think 5 is a lot to cover on the road, especially with a team like Dallas that can really put up the points at time. Dallas +5.
I almost pulled the trigger on the NE and MIA game; Miami has always played the Pats tough at home, and I'd be all over this if this were Week 3. There's just too much that can go wrong the first week, and the professionalism of Pats' organization (something lacking in Miami last year) probably insulates them from some of the risk. I'll stay off. I'm also staying off two other "leans"-- the under in the Denver / Indy game and the Chargers making a close game out in the desert. Interesting match-ups, but not enough to risk any capital this year.
Saturday, January 4, 2014
2013 Regular Season Recap
Week 16 was a loser for me, going 2-3 (the Saints defense killed me in allowing that last Carolina TD drive), and I stayed off the craziness of Week 17-- the last few weeks of the season were not particularly good for me, and rather than chase and give up more money, I elected to sit on my winnings and be happy with a winning season. Looking back on the regular season, I went 27 - 18, for +7.2 units, with a winning percentage of 60%. Not a super stellar year, but winning is winning.
I love the playoffs, but very rarely bet them. I'm happy with the amount I've won for this season, so I'll just be enjoying the playoffs as a fan. Of course, I will still be looking at the lines. As such, I think it's really interesting that the line on the KC - Indy game has moved all the way from Colts -2.5 to KC -1.5. That's a pretty big swing. I think the money is probably moving in the right way, as KC is getting some players back that will improve their ability to get after Luck (look for Luck to be pressured WAY more than in the Week 16 match-up). I still wouldn't trust real money on a Chiefs team that can be pretty inconsistent, and a Colts team that can beat the best (Seattle, Denver, SF, KC) and lose big as well (St. Louis, Arizona, etc.), is a tough sell, too. If I had to pick one side or total off the whole board, I'd probably take the under in this game.
All season we heard how bad the NFC East is and now that the Eagles finally won the war of attrition, they are -3 with the Saints visiting? We are taking this "Saints-can't-win-on-the-road" thing too seriously, perhaps? Or are the Eagles peaking at the right time? I'm really looking forward to this game, as I love watching horrible weather playoff football. I don't know which way to lean, though I'd give a slight edge to NO-- taking Brees with points is usually a good play.
The 49ers' ability to deal with the weather is another hot topic, even though they are posted as 3-point favorites on the road in Green Bay. Much has been made of the return of Aaron Rodgers, but the real story here is, I think, still that the Packer's D sucks. Bad. I don't think that, even with Cobb and Rodgers back, the Pack can score enough against the SF D to edge them out.
The Chargers shouldn't even be in the playoffs, and they shouldn't beat the Bengals, but it wouldn't surprise me. It's hard for teams to beat the same team twice in a season, though, and the Bengals are really good at screwing up a good thing. Still, I expect the Bengals to win, since they have the far superior D, but it is the playoffs.... just about anything can happen (which is why I tend not to bet on them).
NFL 2013 Season Total: 27 - 18, +7.2 units, 60% win %.
I love the playoffs, but very rarely bet them. I'm happy with the amount I've won for this season, so I'll just be enjoying the playoffs as a fan. Of course, I will still be looking at the lines. As such, I think it's really interesting that the line on the KC - Indy game has moved all the way from Colts -2.5 to KC -1.5. That's a pretty big swing. I think the money is probably moving in the right way, as KC is getting some players back that will improve their ability to get after Luck (look for Luck to be pressured WAY more than in the Week 16 match-up). I still wouldn't trust real money on a Chiefs team that can be pretty inconsistent, and a Colts team that can beat the best (Seattle, Denver, SF, KC) and lose big as well (St. Louis, Arizona, etc.), is a tough sell, too. If I had to pick one side or total off the whole board, I'd probably take the under in this game.
All season we heard how bad the NFC East is and now that the Eagles finally won the war of attrition, they are -3 with the Saints visiting? We are taking this "Saints-can't-win-on-the-road" thing too seriously, perhaps? Or are the Eagles peaking at the right time? I'm really looking forward to this game, as I love watching horrible weather playoff football. I don't know which way to lean, though I'd give a slight edge to NO-- taking Brees with points is usually a good play.
The 49ers' ability to deal with the weather is another hot topic, even though they are posted as 3-point favorites on the road in Green Bay. Much has been made of the return of Aaron Rodgers, but the real story here is, I think, still that the Packer's D sucks. Bad. I don't think that, even with Cobb and Rodgers back, the Pack can score enough against the SF D to edge them out.
The Chargers shouldn't even be in the playoffs, and they shouldn't beat the Bengals, but it wouldn't surprise me. It's hard for teams to beat the same team twice in a season, though, and the Bengals are really good at screwing up a good thing. Still, I expect the Bengals to win, since they have the far superior D, but it is the playoffs.... just about anything can happen (which is why I tend not to bet on them).
NFL 2013 Season Total: 27 - 18, +7.2 units, 60% win %.
Monday, December 16, 2013
Week 16 Picks
No Week 15 picks-- the board was pretty tight and I wasn't liking any of the plays. Two weeks of record-setting offensive numbers just makes it hard to gauge how games are going to play out. Plus, we are nearing the end of the season, and I wanted to protect my profits a bit.
I rarely play on the last weekend of the season, and very rarely play on playoff games, unless it's a play on the total. So, my Week 16 picks are probably my last slate of full card picks (unless something too interesting comes up). I really like this card, and feel I have a good chance at 3-2 or even 4-1.
I'll post my Week 15 Recap later this week, but wanted to lock in a few Week 16 picks while the lines are fresh.
I love that I can get New Orleans +3 1/2 at Carolina, and that is all thanks to the Saint's eating it on the road in St. Louis. Classic look-ahead game; Brees and company will be ready for a contested divisional game and should play well. I think they will win this game, and having a team that should probably be favored (even if on the road) as a 3 1/2 point dog is great. New Orleans +3 1/2.
I'll take Cleveland +2 visiting the Jets as well. Cleveland should have won this last week, but couldn't hold onto the ball. They are the better team, and I don't the Jets should really be favored against anyone. Cleveland +2.
I always play double-digit divisional dogs, and I'll certainly take a 9-5 team +10 1/2, even if they are playing in Seattle. The Seahawks look the part of the best team in the NFL, but I like Arizona to keep it close on the road in a tight divisional game at the end of the year. Arizona +10 1/2.
Speaking of double digit divisional dogs, I'll take the Raiders this week as well, +10 at the Chargers. The Chargers have looked the part of late, but again, late-season division games are always tricky. The Chargers need this game to stay in the hunt, but this is really Oakland's playoff game-- they aren't going anywhere, but who on the Raider team doesn't want to all-but destroy Rivers' chance at the post-season? Oakland +10.
The last game I'm taking is the Pats + 1 1/2. Somehow, the Pats losing to a more-than-decent Miami team in a divisional game on the road means that Tom Brady all of sudden sucks? Look back at the New England - Miami series over the last 10 years-- the Dolphins have always played the Pats tough, even in the worst years for the fish. New England is just fine, and even without Gronk, should put away the defending Superbowl champs handily. New England +1 1/2.
I rarely play on the last weekend of the season, and very rarely play on playoff games, unless it's a play on the total. So, my Week 16 picks are probably my last slate of full card picks (unless something too interesting comes up). I really like this card, and feel I have a good chance at 3-2 or even 4-1.
I'll post my Week 15 Recap later this week, but wanted to lock in a few Week 16 picks while the lines are fresh.
I love that I can get New Orleans +3 1/2 at Carolina, and that is all thanks to the Saint's eating it on the road in St. Louis. Classic look-ahead game; Brees and company will be ready for a contested divisional game and should play well. I think they will win this game, and having a team that should probably be favored (even if on the road) as a 3 1/2 point dog is great. New Orleans +3 1/2.
I'll take Cleveland +2 visiting the Jets as well. Cleveland should have won this last week, but couldn't hold onto the ball. They are the better team, and I don't the Jets should really be favored against anyone. Cleveland +2.
I always play double-digit divisional dogs, and I'll certainly take a 9-5 team +10 1/2, even if they are playing in Seattle. The Seahawks look the part of the best team in the NFL, but I like Arizona to keep it close on the road in a tight divisional game at the end of the year. Arizona +10 1/2.
Speaking of double digit divisional dogs, I'll take the Raiders this week as well, +10 at the Chargers. The Chargers have looked the part of late, but again, late-season division games are always tricky. The Chargers need this game to stay in the hunt, but this is really Oakland's playoff game-- they aren't going anywhere, but who on the Raider team doesn't want to all-but destroy Rivers' chance at the post-season? Oakland +10.
The last game I'm taking is the Pats + 1 1/2. Somehow, the Pats losing to a more-than-decent Miami team in a divisional game on the road means that Tom Brady all of sudden sucks? Look back at the New England - Miami series over the last 10 years-- the Dolphins have always played the Pats tough, even in the worst years for the fish. New England is just fine, and even without Gronk, should put away the defending Superbowl champs handily. New England +1 1/2.
Friday, December 6, 2013
Week 14 Picks
I really wanted Cincinnati -3 this week as they host the Colts, but the line has been pushed up to -6. This is a huge let-down game for the Colts-- last week, they more or less wrapped up the division (especially with 2 wins over the second place Titans who are playing at Denver this weekend), and are home again next week with a division game. Cincinnati can deliver a huge blow to the rest of the division with a win at home against a struggling Colts team. I like Cincy to win this one, but I have a feeling that this is a game won or lost on a FG. I'd take my chances with the 3, but not on the 6. Conversely, some books are showing Colts +6.5, and if that number gets to +7, I'll add a play on the Colts. So this is something of a conditional play (though I don't expect to get the Colts +7, if I do, I'll pull the trigger).
I will play on Detroit - Philadelphia under the number this week. Both teams are vying for a division title, and I think this game will be approached like a playoff game to some extent-- careful, not a lot of risk taking, and with an emphasis on trying to run the ball and play good defense. Both teams have high-powered offenses (which is why the number is so high), but I expect that both teams will try to establish the run game to really contest the time and number of possessions. I also like the improvements that the Philly defense has made. Detroit - Philly UNDER 54.5.
I also like the Cowboys +1 on Monday Night. They Cowboys actually play pretty well on the road, and I like how the Dallas offense matches up with the woeful Chicago defense. Dallas's improving D should be able to keep the game close enough for a late rally if needed, and I like Romo to be able to move the ball at will late in the 4th quarter. Dallas +1.
I will play on Detroit - Philadelphia under the number this week. Both teams are vying for a division title, and I think this game will be approached like a playoff game to some extent-- careful, not a lot of risk taking, and with an emphasis on trying to run the ball and play good defense. Both teams have high-powered offenses (which is why the number is so high), but I expect that both teams will try to establish the run game to really contest the time and number of possessions. I also like the improvements that the Philly defense has made. Detroit - Philly UNDER 54.5.
I also like the Cowboys +1 on Monday Night. They Cowboys actually play pretty well on the road, and I like how the Dallas offense matches up with the woeful Chicago defense. Dallas's improving D should be able to keep the game close enough for a late rally if needed, and I like Romo to be able to move the ball at will late in the 4th quarter. Dallas +1.
Week 13 Recap
I tried to get a little fancy this week and didn't take the strong trend plays on the Colts and the Texans (in the former, Andrew Luck is now 9-0 ATS following a loss; in the latter, this season, teams with 15% or less of the money in Vegas are 11-3 ATS). The Steelers pick cashed on a strong trend, but I gave it back with my play on the total in the Tennessee - Indy game. They total was a decent enough play-- both teams were able to move the ball up and down the field, but couldn't cash it in the end zone (witness Vinatieri's monster 5 field goal day). So, I ended up 1-1.
As we head down the stretch, a few things are coming to the fore. Clearly, Seattle is a place no one wants to play in January. I really thought the Saints would be more competitive in the Monday night game, but they were just bottled and throttled. The most surprising aspect of this Seahawks team for me is Wilson-- I keep waiting for him to have a really bad game or make some really bad decisions in a key moment, like most 2nd year QBs tend to do. Thus far, this guy has been poised and competent, and in a few games (like Monday), pretty brilliant. Looking at the whole of the NFC, I still think New Orleans (despite the recent drubbing) is really the only team that could bust them in the mouth in Seattle. I don't see the 49ers or the Cowboys being able to get that done. In any case, so long as Seattle doesn't have some kind of colossal meltdown, it looks like to road to the NFC side of the Superbowl will go through the Pacific Northwest.
It's dangerous to underestimate how big the win at San Diego was for the Bengals-- that was a perfectly loseable game for the "Bungles", and one that in years passed they would have messed up somehow. Getting a tough win on the road against a team that can be pretty decent was impressive and puts some distance in the AFC North race.
I keep waiting for Carolina to come back to earth-- I had a hunch that Tampa Bay might play them closer this past week, but they really didn't-- at all. SF was a big winner in a divisional game I thought would be closer, too. Denver, while looking fairly unstoppable on most drives on offense, has major defensive issues (what's new, right, Peyton Manning?). The big difference between this Denver team and the Manning-led teams in Indy is that the Broncos actually have a run game and can usually play the run pretty tough defensively. They just have a horrible, horrible secondary.
NFL 2013 Week 13: 1-1
NFL 2013 Season Total: 23-14
As we head down the stretch, a few things are coming to the fore. Clearly, Seattle is a place no one wants to play in January. I really thought the Saints would be more competitive in the Monday night game, but they were just bottled and throttled. The most surprising aspect of this Seahawks team for me is Wilson-- I keep waiting for him to have a really bad game or make some really bad decisions in a key moment, like most 2nd year QBs tend to do. Thus far, this guy has been poised and competent, and in a few games (like Monday), pretty brilliant. Looking at the whole of the NFC, I still think New Orleans (despite the recent drubbing) is really the only team that could bust them in the mouth in Seattle. I don't see the 49ers or the Cowboys being able to get that done. In any case, so long as Seattle doesn't have some kind of colossal meltdown, it looks like to road to the NFC side of the Superbowl will go through the Pacific Northwest.
It's dangerous to underestimate how big the win at San Diego was for the Bengals-- that was a perfectly loseable game for the "Bungles", and one that in years passed they would have messed up somehow. Getting a tough win on the road against a team that can be pretty decent was impressive and puts some distance in the AFC North race.
I keep waiting for Carolina to come back to earth-- I had a hunch that Tampa Bay might play them closer this past week, but they really didn't-- at all. SF was a big winner in a divisional game I thought would be closer, too. Denver, while looking fairly unstoppable on most drives on offense, has major defensive issues (what's new, right, Peyton Manning?). The big difference between this Denver team and the Manning-led teams in Indy is that the Broncos actually have a run game and can usually play the run pretty tough defensively. They just have a horrible, horrible secondary.
NFL 2013 Week 13: 1-1
NFL 2013 Season Total: 23-14
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