Week 16 was a loser for me, going 2-3 (the Saints defense killed me in allowing that last Carolina TD drive), and I stayed off the craziness of Week 17-- the last few weeks of the season were not particularly good for me, and rather than chase and give up more money, I elected to sit on my winnings and be happy with a winning season. Looking back on the regular season, I went 27 - 18, for +7.2 units, with a winning percentage of 60%. Not a super stellar year, but winning is winning.
I love the playoffs, but very rarely bet them. I'm happy with the amount I've won for this season, so I'll just be enjoying the playoffs as a fan. Of course, I will still be looking at the lines. As such, I think it's really interesting that the line on the KC - Indy game has moved all the way from Colts -2.5 to KC -1.5. That's a pretty big swing. I think the money is probably moving in the right way, as KC is getting some players back that will improve their ability to get after Luck (look for Luck to be pressured WAY more than in the Week 16 match-up). I still wouldn't trust real money on a Chiefs team that can be pretty inconsistent, and a Colts team that can beat the best (Seattle, Denver, SF, KC) and lose big as well (St. Louis, Arizona, etc.), is a tough sell, too. If I had to pick one side or total off the whole board, I'd probably take the under in this game.
All season we heard how bad the NFC East is and now that the Eagles finally won the war of attrition, they are -3 with the Saints visiting? We are taking this "Saints-can't-win-on-the-road" thing too seriously, perhaps? Or are the Eagles peaking at the right time? I'm really looking forward to this game, as I love watching horrible weather playoff football. I don't know which way to lean, though I'd give a slight edge to NO-- taking Brees with points is usually a good play.
The 49ers' ability to deal with the weather is another hot topic, even though they are posted as 3-point favorites on the road in Green Bay. Much has been made of the return of Aaron Rodgers, but the real story here is, I think, still that the Packer's D sucks. Bad. I don't think that, even with Cobb and Rodgers back, the Pack can score enough against the SF D to edge them out.
The Chargers shouldn't even be in the playoffs, and they shouldn't beat the Bengals, but it wouldn't surprise me. It's hard for teams to beat the same team twice in a season, though, and the Bengals are really good at screwing up a good thing. Still, I expect the Bengals to win, since they have the far superior D, but it is the playoffs.... just about anything can happen (which is why I tend not to bet on them).
NFL 2013 Season Total: 27 - 18, +7.2 units, 60% win %.
Saturday, January 4, 2014
Monday, December 16, 2013
Week 16 Picks
No Week 15 picks-- the board was pretty tight and I wasn't liking any of the plays. Two weeks of record-setting offensive numbers just makes it hard to gauge how games are going to play out. Plus, we are nearing the end of the season, and I wanted to protect my profits a bit.
I rarely play on the last weekend of the season, and very rarely play on playoff games, unless it's a play on the total. So, my Week 16 picks are probably my last slate of full card picks (unless something too interesting comes up). I really like this card, and feel I have a good chance at 3-2 or even 4-1.
I'll post my Week 15 Recap later this week, but wanted to lock in a few Week 16 picks while the lines are fresh.
I love that I can get New Orleans +3 1/2 at Carolina, and that is all thanks to the Saint's eating it on the road in St. Louis. Classic look-ahead game; Brees and company will be ready for a contested divisional game and should play well. I think they will win this game, and having a team that should probably be favored (even if on the road) as a 3 1/2 point dog is great. New Orleans +3 1/2.
I'll take Cleveland +2 visiting the Jets as well. Cleveland should have won this last week, but couldn't hold onto the ball. They are the better team, and I don't the Jets should really be favored against anyone. Cleveland +2.
I always play double-digit divisional dogs, and I'll certainly take a 9-5 team +10 1/2, even if they are playing in Seattle. The Seahawks look the part of the best team in the NFL, but I like Arizona to keep it close on the road in a tight divisional game at the end of the year. Arizona +10 1/2.
Speaking of double digit divisional dogs, I'll take the Raiders this week as well, +10 at the Chargers. The Chargers have looked the part of late, but again, late-season division games are always tricky. The Chargers need this game to stay in the hunt, but this is really Oakland's playoff game-- they aren't going anywhere, but who on the Raider team doesn't want to all-but destroy Rivers' chance at the post-season? Oakland +10.
The last game I'm taking is the Pats + 1 1/2. Somehow, the Pats losing to a more-than-decent Miami team in a divisional game on the road means that Tom Brady all of sudden sucks? Look back at the New England - Miami series over the last 10 years-- the Dolphins have always played the Pats tough, even in the worst years for the fish. New England is just fine, and even without Gronk, should put away the defending Superbowl champs handily. New England +1 1/2.
I rarely play on the last weekend of the season, and very rarely play on playoff games, unless it's a play on the total. So, my Week 16 picks are probably my last slate of full card picks (unless something too interesting comes up). I really like this card, and feel I have a good chance at 3-2 or even 4-1.
I'll post my Week 15 Recap later this week, but wanted to lock in a few Week 16 picks while the lines are fresh.
I love that I can get New Orleans +3 1/2 at Carolina, and that is all thanks to the Saint's eating it on the road in St. Louis. Classic look-ahead game; Brees and company will be ready for a contested divisional game and should play well. I think they will win this game, and having a team that should probably be favored (even if on the road) as a 3 1/2 point dog is great. New Orleans +3 1/2.
I'll take Cleveland +2 visiting the Jets as well. Cleveland should have won this last week, but couldn't hold onto the ball. They are the better team, and I don't the Jets should really be favored against anyone. Cleveland +2.
I always play double-digit divisional dogs, and I'll certainly take a 9-5 team +10 1/2, even if they are playing in Seattle. The Seahawks look the part of the best team in the NFL, but I like Arizona to keep it close on the road in a tight divisional game at the end of the year. Arizona +10 1/2.
Speaking of double digit divisional dogs, I'll take the Raiders this week as well, +10 at the Chargers. The Chargers have looked the part of late, but again, late-season division games are always tricky. The Chargers need this game to stay in the hunt, but this is really Oakland's playoff game-- they aren't going anywhere, but who on the Raider team doesn't want to all-but destroy Rivers' chance at the post-season? Oakland +10.
The last game I'm taking is the Pats + 1 1/2. Somehow, the Pats losing to a more-than-decent Miami team in a divisional game on the road means that Tom Brady all of sudden sucks? Look back at the New England - Miami series over the last 10 years-- the Dolphins have always played the Pats tough, even in the worst years for the fish. New England is just fine, and even without Gronk, should put away the defending Superbowl champs handily. New England +1 1/2.
Friday, December 6, 2013
Week 14 Picks
I really wanted Cincinnati -3 this week as they host the Colts, but the line has been pushed up to -6. This is a huge let-down game for the Colts-- last week, they more or less wrapped up the division (especially with 2 wins over the second place Titans who are playing at Denver this weekend), and are home again next week with a division game. Cincinnati can deliver a huge blow to the rest of the division with a win at home against a struggling Colts team. I like Cincy to win this one, but I have a feeling that this is a game won or lost on a FG. I'd take my chances with the 3, but not on the 6. Conversely, some books are showing Colts +6.5, and if that number gets to +7, I'll add a play on the Colts. So this is something of a conditional play (though I don't expect to get the Colts +7, if I do, I'll pull the trigger).
I will play on Detroit - Philadelphia under the number this week. Both teams are vying for a division title, and I think this game will be approached like a playoff game to some extent-- careful, not a lot of risk taking, and with an emphasis on trying to run the ball and play good defense. Both teams have high-powered offenses (which is why the number is so high), but I expect that both teams will try to establish the run game to really contest the time and number of possessions. I also like the improvements that the Philly defense has made. Detroit - Philly UNDER 54.5.
I also like the Cowboys +1 on Monday Night. They Cowboys actually play pretty well on the road, and I like how the Dallas offense matches up with the woeful Chicago defense. Dallas's improving D should be able to keep the game close enough for a late rally if needed, and I like Romo to be able to move the ball at will late in the 4th quarter. Dallas +1.
I will play on Detroit - Philadelphia under the number this week. Both teams are vying for a division title, and I think this game will be approached like a playoff game to some extent-- careful, not a lot of risk taking, and with an emphasis on trying to run the ball and play good defense. Both teams have high-powered offenses (which is why the number is so high), but I expect that both teams will try to establish the run game to really contest the time and number of possessions. I also like the improvements that the Philly defense has made. Detroit - Philly UNDER 54.5.
I also like the Cowboys +1 on Monday Night. They Cowboys actually play pretty well on the road, and I like how the Dallas offense matches up with the woeful Chicago defense. Dallas's improving D should be able to keep the game close enough for a late rally if needed, and I like Romo to be able to move the ball at will late in the 4th quarter. Dallas +1.
Week 13 Recap
I tried to get a little fancy this week and didn't take the strong trend plays on the Colts and the Texans (in the former, Andrew Luck is now 9-0 ATS following a loss; in the latter, this season, teams with 15% or less of the money in Vegas are 11-3 ATS). The Steelers pick cashed on a strong trend, but I gave it back with my play on the total in the Tennessee - Indy game. They total was a decent enough play-- both teams were able to move the ball up and down the field, but couldn't cash it in the end zone (witness Vinatieri's monster 5 field goal day). So, I ended up 1-1.
As we head down the stretch, a few things are coming to the fore. Clearly, Seattle is a place no one wants to play in January. I really thought the Saints would be more competitive in the Monday night game, but they were just bottled and throttled. The most surprising aspect of this Seahawks team for me is Wilson-- I keep waiting for him to have a really bad game or make some really bad decisions in a key moment, like most 2nd year QBs tend to do. Thus far, this guy has been poised and competent, and in a few games (like Monday), pretty brilliant. Looking at the whole of the NFC, I still think New Orleans (despite the recent drubbing) is really the only team that could bust them in the mouth in Seattle. I don't see the 49ers or the Cowboys being able to get that done. In any case, so long as Seattle doesn't have some kind of colossal meltdown, it looks like to road to the NFC side of the Superbowl will go through the Pacific Northwest.
It's dangerous to underestimate how big the win at San Diego was for the Bengals-- that was a perfectly loseable game for the "Bungles", and one that in years passed they would have messed up somehow. Getting a tough win on the road against a team that can be pretty decent was impressive and puts some distance in the AFC North race.
I keep waiting for Carolina to come back to earth-- I had a hunch that Tampa Bay might play them closer this past week, but they really didn't-- at all. SF was a big winner in a divisional game I thought would be closer, too. Denver, while looking fairly unstoppable on most drives on offense, has major defensive issues (what's new, right, Peyton Manning?). The big difference between this Denver team and the Manning-led teams in Indy is that the Broncos actually have a run game and can usually play the run pretty tough defensively. They just have a horrible, horrible secondary.
NFL 2013 Week 13: 1-1
NFL 2013 Season Total: 23-14
As we head down the stretch, a few things are coming to the fore. Clearly, Seattle is a place no one wants to play in January. I really thought the Saints would be more competitive in the Monday night game, but they were just bottled and throttled. The most surprising aspect of this Seahawks team for me is Wilson-- I keep waiting for him to have a really bad game or make some really bad decisions in a key moment, like most 2nd year QBs tend to do. Thus far, this guy has been poised and competent, and in a few games (like Monday), pretty brilliant. Looking at the whole of the NFC, I still think New Orleans (despite the recent drubbing) is really the only team that could bust them in the mouth in Seattle. I don't see the 49ers or the Cowboys being able to get that done. In any case, so long as Seattle doesn't have some kind of colossal meltdown, it looks like to road to the NFC side of the Superbowl will go through the Pacific Northwest.
It's dangerous to underestimate how big the win at San Diego was for the Bengals-- that was a perfectly loseable game for the "Bungles", and one that in years passed they would have messed up somehow. Getting a tough win on the road against a team that can be pretty decent was impressive and puts some distance in the AFC North race.
I keep waiting for Carolina to come back to earth-- I had a hunch that Tampa Bay might play them closer this past week, but they really didn't-- at all. SF was a big winner in a divisional game I thought would be closer, too. Denver, while looking fairly unstoppable on most drives on offense, has major defensive issues (what's new, right, Peyton Manning?). The big difference between this Denver team and the Manning-led teams in Indy is that the Broncos actually have a run game and can usually play the run pretty tough defensively. They just have a horrible, horrible secondary.
NFL 2013 Week 13: 1-1
NFL 2013 Season Total: 23-14
Tuesday, November 26, 2013
Week 13 Picks
Some Vegas weirdness-- the Pats opened up as 7 point road favorites against Houston, and with 99% of the money on the visitors, the line has only moved 1/2 a point. That's a clear no-play for me-- I don't see how Houston is competitive in this game, expect that it seems that Vegas thinks so. And I'm not betting against the house. I am not, however, taking the opposite side. I can't pull the trigger on Houston, no matter how much money Vegas is asking for on the Pats.
I'm taking the Steelers +3, for no reason other than this: in the Big Ben - Flacco era, 9 of the 12 games in the series have been decided by 3 or fewer points, including 8 of the last 10 match-ups. That's almost six seasons of generally close games. I'm happy to take the three points, with a chance to win or push. Steelers +3.
The other trend play would be on the Colts -4-- Andrew Luck is money ATS after a loss (now 8-0 ATS after a loss). The Titans won dramatically on Sunday on the road, but still trail in the division. Indy can put a killshot on Tennessee's divisional aspirations with a win at Lucas Oil Stadium, as the Titans still have games against Arizona and Denver. Indy's defense is horrific, and I think they may well be in a hole early, and have to put the game on Luck's back. I think this may well be the week that Andrew Luck's ATS after a loss trend crashes instead of cashes. I don't think Tennessee is the right play either. I'd play on Indy at -3 (and was really, really hoping that I'd get it in the wake of the Arizona debacle), but the -4, I just don't know. I do, however, like the over 44 1/2 in the Tennessee - Indianapolis game. Indy's defense is horrific, and I think they may well be in a hole early, and have to put the game on Luck's back. I think points will be scored; Indy is giving up over 32 points per game in their last five, and has been able to put up big numbers against divisional opponents this season. Tennessee - Indianapolis OVER 44 1/2.
Two picks off a tough board-- I'd be thrilled to go 1-0-1 on this one.
I'm taking the Steelers +3, for no reason other than this: in the Big Ben - Flacco era, 9 of the 12 games in the series have been decided by 3 or fewer points, including 8 of the last 10 match-ups. That's almost six seasons of generally close games. I'm happy to take the three points, with a chance to win or push. Steelers +3.
The other trend play would be on the Colts -4-- Andrew Luck is money ATS after a loss (now 8-0 ATS after a loss). The Titans won dramatically on Sunday on the road, but still trail in the division. Indy can put a killshot on Tennessee's divisional aspirations with a win at Lucas Oil Stadium, as the Titans still have games against Arizona and Denver. Indy's defense is horrific, and I think they may well be in a hole early, and have to put the game on Luck's back. I think this may well be the week that Andrew Luck's ATS after a loss trend crashes instead of cashes. I don't think Tennessee is the right play either. I'd play on Indy at -3 (and was really, really hoping that I'd get it in the wake of the Arizona debacle), but the -4, I just don't know. I do, however, like the over 44 1/2 in the Tennessee - Indianapolis game. Indy's defense is horrific, and I think they may well be in a hole early, and have to put the game on Luck's back. I think points will be scored; Indy is giving up over 32 points per game in their last five, and has been able to put up big numbers against divisional opponents this season. Tennessee - Indianapolis OVER 44 1/2.
Two picks off a tough board-- I'd be thrilled to go 1-0-1 on this one.
Week 12 Recap
I had a pretty good week, going 3-1, but missing the perfect 4-0 by a point on the total play in the Dallas - New York game. Those two early botched red zone possessions for the Giants really hurt, but I'll take a 3-1 mark any week. The Jags - Texans game went exactly as I had expected, and the results on the side and total were never in doubt. Though I'm happy I made those plays (playing the trend of double digits division dogs especially), I am kicking myself a little for not playing the sharp play on the Cards and the Falcons. With the latter, I've been hosed a couple times on the Falcons that I missed the cover in the good spot. Sometimes teams can really get in your head, and I think Atlanta is one of those teams for me this season, so I missed a good play there.
The Minnesota - Green Bay game was wild-- I very well could have lost that game in OT, after holding a ticket for the +5 dog up 23 - 7 at the beginning of the 4th quarter. Green Bay nearly punched it in during the OT quarter, which would have blown the Minnesota play. Crazy game. People playing Minnesota on the moneyline must have just been sick-- just like the people enjoying their Denver -2 1/2 ticket at halftime on Sunday night. Classic Manning - Brady-- huge comeback, dramatic game, with Peyton finally responding to tie the game at 31-all, but the Pats pulling out the stunner at home. I'm so glad I wasn't on this game and could just enjoy it as pure sport.
Things change so fast in the NFL-- KC was riding high, but the naysayers that have been riding next to the bandwagon all season were correct. Now KC has lost 2 in a row, with a very real possible of making it 3, with this week's game against the Broncos. They caught a break with the Denver loss, though, which takes the sting out of the divisional loss to SD somewhat.
The Colts are clearly not the same team without Reggie Wayne. It seems that the receivers can't ever be competent all at the same time. If Fleener isn't dropping balls, Hilton is, and I don't think Heywood-Bey is the right fit for Indy. Richardson can't get going, which is at least as much about the O-line as him (which is also why Luck isn't being protected enough). There are some things to sort out in Indy, and for all the problems (solvable, mostly, going forward to next year), the biggest liability is the defense (shocking, I know, for a Colts squad). There's a lot of upside for this young team, but better defense is going to have to be part of it. Arizona just shelled them, not that it was terribly surprising. I stayed off this game (somewhat ironically) because the Cards are a good team, if underrated. The Colts usually play up to their opponents, and I thought they'd be more competitive.
Carolina won again, a gritty game with a Dolphin squad that rarely wins but almost always plays it close. This was a bad spot for Carolina-- an out of division game, before a huge divisional match-up, on the road, after a string of wings--- this is a hard, hard spot for any team. Kudos to them for taking care of business and putting a little fear into the Saints.
Don't look now, but the Steelers are tied for second in the division (with the defending Superbowl champs). Cincinnati has a tough road test this week, heading out to San Diego, and the Steelers battle the Ravens. The Bengals need a win to keep up their lead.
NFL 2013 Week 12: 3-1
NFL 2013 Season Total: 22-13
The Minnesota - Green Bay game was wild-- I very well could have lost that game in OT, after holding a ticket for the +5 dog up 23 - 7 at the beginning of the 4th quarter. Green Bay nearly punched it in during the OT quarter, which would have blown the Minnesota play. Crazy game. People playing Minnesota on the moneyline must have just been sick-- just like the people enjoying their Denver -2 1/2 ticket at halftime on Sunday night. Classic Manning - Brady-- huge comeback, dramatic game, with Peyton finally responding to tie the game at 31-all, but the Pats pulling out the stunner at home. I'm so glad I wasn't on this game and could just enjoy it as pure sport.
Things change so fast in the NFL-- KC was riding high, but the naysayers that have been riding next to the bandwagon all season were correct. Now KC has lost 2 in a row, with a very real possible of making it 3, with this week's game against the Broncos. They caught a break with the Denver loss, though, which takes the sting out of the divisional loss to SD somewhat.
The Colts are clearly not the same team without Reggie Wayne. It seems that the receivers can't ever be competent all at the same time. If Fleener isn't dropping balls, Hilton is, and I don't think Heywood-Bey is the right fit for Indy. Richardson can't get going, which is at least as much about the O-line as him (which is also why Luck isn't being protected enough). There are some things to sort out in Indy, and for all the problems (solvable, mostly, going forward to next year), the biggest liability is the defense (shocking, I know, for a Colts squad). There's a lot of upside for this young team, but better defense is going to have to be part of it. Arizona just shelled them, not that it was terribly surprising. I stayed off this game (somewhat ironically) because the Cards are a good team, if underrated. The Colts usually play up to their opponents, and I thought they'd be more competitive.
Carolina won again, a gritty game with a Dolphin squad that rarely wins but almost always plays it close. This was a bad spot for Carolina-- an out of division game, before a huge divisional match-up, on the road, after a string of wings--- this is a hard, hard spot for any team. Kudos to them for taking care of business and putting a little fear into the Saints.
Don't look now, but the Steelers are tied for second in the division (with the defending Superbowl champs). Cincinnati has a tough road test this week, heading out to San Diego, and the Steelers battle the Ravens. The Bengals need a win to keep up their lead.
NFL 2013 Week 12: 3-1
NFL 2013 Season Total: 22-13
Thursday, November 21, 2013
Week 12 Picks
Each year, there's usually a team or two that feel very difficult to handicap. I feel this way about the Colts, even though I'm 2-0 this season with Colts games. There are a lot of reasons to pick Arizona -2 1/2 this week-- Arizona is still fairly underrated, being overshadowed greatly by the Seahawks and 49ers in the division, Bruce Arians is a good coach who is obviously very, very familiar with the Colts, the Cards have the #2 rushing defense in the NFL, and the Colts seem to be one of those young teams that plays either up to, or down to, their opponents (this is a squad that has beat Seattle, San Francisco and Denver, but lost to St. Louis, Miami, and San Diego, and barely eeked out a road win at Tennessee last week). But is playing Arizona really playing "down"? This is a solid football team. I think Arizona is probably the correct play, but I just can't get over the nagging feeling that the Colts, with a long week, won't be underestimating their former coach's team. This game is essentially a PK, as I bet this game is lost or won on a field goal. If I could get Indianapolis +3, I'd take it. But at 2 1/2, I'll pass.
The other game I'd like to get +3 on is the Denver - NE game. Tom Brady as a home underdog, after a loss, in a place where Manning has rarely played well. At +2 1/2, it's a no play for me, not that it would surprise me for the Pats to win outright-- I just don't feel comfortable with the half point, so I'm staying off this game.
Back to the AFC South-- I'm playing on the Jags this week, +10, along with the under 43 1/2. This is strictly a trend play; double digit divisional dogs are usually solid plays. This has all the makings of a 17 - 9 kind of game, and I'll take the Jags to cover in a low-scoring affair. The Texas still have the best passing defense in the league, but are actually giving up yards on the ground. Both teams should be able to run the ball, and will elect to, since both have terrible QB situations. This should play out as a clock-devouring, churning out yards via the run type, kick field goals kind of game. Jacksonville +10, UNDER 43 1/2.
I've been burned on overs in NFC East games, but I'm going back for one more to make up a game. I'll take over the 46 in the Cowboys - Giants match-up. This is a play against the Cowboys D more than anything (giving up the most YPG than any other team). With Eli starting to throw it around better, I will take the over (which has been pushed down due to the Giants' relatively low-scoring recent outings). This number should probably be around 50 / 51, so I think there's some value in the number here. Cowboys - Giants OVER 46.
I also like Minnesota to cover on the road against Green Bay. AP is probable, and it's going to be cold. I think the Vikings D has enough to pressure Tolzien into mistakes. Minnesota has been more competitive in a lot of games than one would expect from a 2-win team. I like the Vikes +5 on the road in a cold and bitter divisional game. Minnesota +5.
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