Two plays to finish the year-- first is the strong trend of Andrew Luck ATS after a loss. Colts -7.
The other is on the Pats-- after a close shave against the Jets, I like them to get into playoff form and do their usual job on the Bills, who despite being competitive much of the year, still look hapless against New England. Patriots -6.
Sunday, December 28, 2014
Sunday, December 21, 2014
Arizona +9 is a go!
Was hoping to get 9 1/2 or 10 but Arizona is coming down ... I can still get +9, so
I'll lock in there.
I'll lock in there.
Thursday, December 18, 2014
Week 16 Picks
The first play I'm making this week is the UNDER 56 in the Indy-Dallas game. This should be a game where the run game figures prominently. Indy has been running the ball with Dan Herron a little better as of late, and Dallas, well, you know their success running. Whether or not Murray plays is of little consequence; the offensive line will still be able to open up holes in the Indy D for the capable back ups to get yards in chunks. I like this to stay under the number week. Cowboys-Colts UNDER 56.
I can still find Washington +8 1/2, and I'll take it. The Eagles aren't in a position to blow out anyone, even the (at times) completely woeful Washington squad. A divisonal home dog of more than a touchdown, I like Jay Gruden's team to cover here. Washington +8 1/2.
Double digit divisional dogs-- Jets +10 1/2. This one is a bit dicey, but I'll play on the strong trend. Jets +10 1/2.
I can find a +9 on Arizona, but I'll hold off until I can get +10. I'm not punching a ticket just yet, but I'll hit on it if it gets to +10. If on Sunday I can't get +10 I'll play the +9, but I'll be patient and let the public bet up the Cards to get double digits. Conditional play: Arizona +9 if and only if +10 is not available prior to kick off. If the +9 is gone at that time, no play.
I can still find Washington +8 1/2, and I'll take it. The Eagles aren't in a position to blow out anyone, even the (at times) completely woeful Washington squad. A divisonal home dog of more than a touchdown, I like Jay Gruden's team to cover here. Washington +8 1/2.
Double digit divisional dogs-- Jets +10 1/2. This one is a bit dicey, but I'll play on the strong trend. Jets +10 1/2.
I can find a +9 on Arizona, but I'll hold off until I can get +10. I'm not punching a ticket just yet, but I'll hit on it if it gets to +10. If on Sunday I can't get +10 I'll play the +9, but I'll be patient and let the public bet up the Cards to get double digits. Conditional play: Arizona +9 if and only if +10 is not available prior to kick off. If the +9 is gone at that time, no play.
Week 15 Recap
Not winning is better than losing, so a 1-0-1 week is a good week. The Cowboys were SU winners as 3 1/2 point dogs in Philly, in a game that went much as I had expected. The 49ers were competitive for much of the tilt in Seattle, but ended up pushing the number. Not a bad week.
Elsewhere in the week, the sharps were right on Buffalo-- Green Bay was one of the those dangerous road favorites to which I alluded. The big road chalk winner was New Orleans, who put the wood to a reeling, dysfunctional and altogether horrible Chicago Bears squad. New Orleans is now in the driver's seat in the well, reeling, dysfunctional and altogether horrible NFC South. But don't count Drew Brees and company out-- if they win the division, they get a home playoff game and in a great twist of NFL irony, will probably win it.
The books made some money on the Bengals, or rather, beat down the folks that pounded the Browns on behalf of Johnny Football. The Browns and Green Bay were winners for the books, who took it on the chin with the widely bet Pats and Broncos covering.
New England tightened its grip on the AFC with a second half blowout of the Dolphins-- it looks (barring exceptional things happening over the next two weeks) that the road to the Superbowl in the AFC will go through Foxboro. This would seem to be bad news for the Broncos, but the emergent MO for Denver (playing better defense and running the ball, relying less on Peyton's arm, grinding out close wins) is better suited for late season, cold weather road trips in the playoffs. The recent string of games for the Broncos could be a late season slump or a calculated reorienting to playoff-style game plans. This will be interesting to watch as it unfolds.
Indianapolis clinched the AFC South and got the cover, albeit by a half point. Luck hasn't played great, and the T.Y. Hilton apparent concussion is a huge issue for them. Consistency and turnovers have been problems.
Arizona got the win as an underdog to the suddenly hot Rams, in a field goal Thursday night affair. The Cards are such an interesting story, now down to their third string QB and getting ready to face Seattle. That seems like a tall order for a team limping down the stretch, but they've managed to find the next man up all year. Certainly this rivals the NFC East for the most interesting story line heading in the NFC heading into the last few weeks of the season.
So we are back at .500 for a moderate (-2.3 unit) loss on the season thus far. We'll see if we can get some value plays in the final two weeks and get even.
NFL 2014 Week 15: 1-0-1
NFL 2014 Season Total: 23-23-1
Elsewhere in the week, the sharps were right on Buffalo-- Green Bay was one of the those dangerous road favorites to which I alluded. The big road chalk winner was New Orleans, who put the wood to a reeling, dysfunctional and altogether horrible Chicago Bears squad. New Orleans is now in the driver's seat in the well, reeling, dysfunctional and altogether horrible NFC South. But don't count Drew Brees and company out-- if they win the division, they get a home playoff game and in a great twist of NFL irony, will probably win it.
The books made some money on the Bengals, or rather, beat down the folks that pounded the Browns on behalf of Johnny Football. The Browns and Green Bay were winners for the books, who took it on the chin with the widely bet Pats and Broncos covering.
New England tightened its grip on the AFC with a second half blowout of the Dolphins-- it looks (barring exceptional things happening over the next two weeks) that the road to the Superbowl in the AFC will go through Foxboro. This would seem to be bad news for the Broncos, but the emergent MO for Denver (playing better defense and running the ball, relying less on Peyton's arm, grinding out close wins) is better suited for late season, cold weather road trips in the playoffs. The recent string of games for the Broncos could be a late season slump or a calculated reorienting to playoff-style game plans. This will be interesting to watch as it unfolds.
Indianapolis clinched the AFC South and got the cover, albeit by a half point. Luck hasn't played great, and the T.Y. Hilton apparent concussion is a huge issue for them. Consistency and turnovers have been problems.
Arizona got the win as an underdog to the suddenly hot Rams, in a field goal Thursday night affair. The Cards are such an interesting story, now down to their third string QB and getting ready to face Seattle. That seems like a tall order for a team limping down the stretch, but they've managed to find the next man up all year. Certainly this rivals the NFC East for the most interesting story line heading in the NFC heading into the last few weeks of the season.
So we are back at .500 for a moderate (-2.3 unit) loss on the season thus far. We'll see if we can get some value plays in the final two weeks and get even.
NFL 2014 Week 15: 1-0-1
NFL 2014 Season Total: 23-23-1
Tuesday, December 9, 2014
Week 15 Picks
The lines are tight this week; lots of games the saavy player will stay away from (like the Futility Bowl between the Jets and Titans) or dangerous road favorites.
Still there are two games I like that I think have some value. First off, the Niners are in a great spot. Having just been humiliated by the Raiders, they have to go to Seattle and play the red hot Seahawks in the hardest venue in pro football over the past few years. Seattle by 20, right? Not usually-- the dictum that teams are never as good or as bad as perception is usually money, and the Niners are now double digit divisional dogs. Great situational play. Niners +10.
The other team I like is Dallas as 3 1/2 point road dogs at the Eagles. The NFC East has a long tradition of road teams winning these matchups, as well as splits of the season series. After the pasting at home on Thanksgiving, I think the Cowboys get the win (but a three point loss on a FG would be just fine by me as well). The Eagles-- despite Sanchez looking decent at time-- are not the same offense without Nick Foles, and now with a little more tape on the former USC standout, I expect Dallas to get enough pressure to force a turnover or two. This is a must-win for both teams, and I actually like the Cowboys to shake off their December woes and get the W. Cowboys + 3 1/2.
Still there are two games I like that I think have some value. First off, the Niners are in a great spot. Having just been humiliated by the Raiders, they have to go to Seattle and play the red hot Seahawks in the hardest venue in pro football over the past few years. Seattle by 20, right? Not usually-- the dictum that teams are never as good or as bad as perception is usually money, and the Niners are now double digit divisional dogs. Great situational play. Niners +10.
The other team I like is Dallas as 3 1/2 point road dogs at the Eagles. The NFC East has a long tradition of road teams winning these matchups, as well as splits of the season series. After the pasting at home on Thanksgiving, I think the Cowboys get the win (but a three point loss on a FG would be just fine by me as well). The Eagles-- despite Sanchez looking decent at time-- are not the same offense without Nick Foles, and now with a little more tape on the former USC standout, I expect Dallas to get enough pressure to force a turnover or two. This is a must-win for both teams, and I actually like the Cowboys to shake off their December woes and get the W. Cowboys + 3 1/2.
Week 14 Recap
After a couple of tough weeks, it was nice to get a solid 5-2 week. I was a little bummed to not get the Chiefs game, though when they elected to go for it on 4th & 4 instead of punting and pinning the Cards deep, I figured I was hosed. That stop was such a momentum changer. Still, KC had opportunities down the stretch to to take the lead, but two costly turnovers (an INT and a fumble deep in Arizona territory) sealed it.
The Steelers, Ravens and Panthers picks were pretty easy wins, though it took the first two teams until the second half to really pull away. The Carolina game-- wow. I figured that this one would be reliant on a backdoor, late garbage time TD, but no-- the Saints just imploded at home.... again. I wonder how different the Saints' season would be now if they didn't have that bogus call in the SF game. Things have been way downhill since then, in a season that has never been more than about a third way up the hill.
The Pats D secured the cover here, in a night when Brady made a few uncharacteristically bad throws (including the Cutleresque toss to Mant'i Teo near the end zone). Holding the Chargers to a single offensive score was massive, and speaks to the Patriots' much, much improved secondary.
Seattle seemed in control of the game at the Eagles, despite the early lead (what was essentially a special teams TD). The Eagles couldn't get anything going against the improved Seattle stop unit, which has been playing much, much better as of late. Suddenly, the defending champs look the part with this late season surge.
I was impressed with Denver's run game; feeding the ball the C. J. Anderson seems to be working for them. On a day when Manning had 0 TDs (a streak ended), the run was powerful. This bodes well for the playoffs, especially with the aforementioned improved secondary in New England. Plus, the string of RB injuries that allowed them to discover Anderson's talents is a great story.
The bad situation in the Bay area just went from bad to much, much worse-- and for once, we are not talking about the Raiders. Losing to the Raiders probably put the signatures on the divorce papers between the Niners and Harbaugh. I can't see him taking the gig at Oakland, but there seems to be a great deal of buzz around that move. I don't know who the 49ers think they will be able to get that's an upgrade, but there are some big egos involved in this thing. I also don't see Harbaugh going back to the college game without a Super Bowl ring to match his brother's-- he's just too competitive. I wondered about this game, after a recent ESPN polling of top-level NFL personnel execs picked Carr over Kaepernick in a head-to-head "who would you rather build your team around" question.
And what about Andrew Luck-- despite playing poorly for most of the game, he rallies his team for yet another late comeback win. The win is great for Indy, but with their stranglehold on the AFC South, the biggest winner is probably Johnny Football. With only a faint glimmer of playoff hopes still alive, the Browns could bench Hoyer (who was a dismal 14-31 with 0 TDs and 2 INTs, in a game where his D was giving him all the opportunity in the world) and see what they've got in their draft pick.
All in all, a solid week. One game under .500 and still have a shot to get mostly even for the season.
NFL 2014 Week 14: 5-2
NFL 2014 Season Total: 22-23
The Steelers, Ravens and Panthers picks were pretty easy wins, though it took the first two teams until the second half to really pull away. The Carolina game-- wow. I figured that this one would be reliant on a backdoor, late garbage time TD, but no-- the Saints just imploded at home.... again. I wonder how different the Saints' season would be now if they didn't have that bogus call in the SF game. Things have been way downhill since then, in a season that has never been more than about a third way up the hill.
The Pats D secured the cover here, in a night when Brady made a few uncharacteristically bad throws (including the Cutleresque toss to Mant'i Teo near the end zone). Holding the Chargers to a single offensive score was massive, and speaks to the Patriots' much, much improved secondary.
Seattle seemed in control of the game at the Eagles, despite the early lead (what was essentially a special teams TD). The Eagles couldn't get anything going against the improved Seattle stop unit, which has been playing much, much better as of late. Suddenly, the defending champs look the part with this late season surge.
I was impressed with Denver's run game; feeding the ball the C. J. Anderson seems to be working for them. On a day when Manning had 0 TDs (a streak ended), the run was powerful. This bodes well for the playoffs, especially with the aforementioned improved secondary in New England. Plus, the string of RB injuries that allowed them to discover Anderson's talents is a great story.
The bad situation in the Bay area just went from bad to much, much worse-- and for once, we are not talking about the Raiders. Losing to the Raiders probably put the signatures on the divorce papers between the Niners and Harbaugh. I can't see him taking the gig at Oakland, but there seems to be a great deal of buzz around that move. I don't know who the 49ers think they will be able to get that's an upgrade, but there are some big egos involved in this thing. I also don't see Harbaugh going back to the college game without a Super Bowl ring to match his brother's-- he's just too competitive. I wondered about this game, after a recent ESPN polling of top-level NFL personnel execs picked Carr over Kaepernick in a head-to-head "who would you rather build your team around" question.
And what about Andrew Luck-- despite playing poorly for most of the game, he rallies his team for yet another late comeback win. The win is great for Indy, but with their stranglehold on the AFC South, the biggest winner is probably Johnny Football. With only a faint glimmer of playoff hopes still alive, the Browns could bench Hoyer (who was a dismal 14-31 with 0 TDs and 2 INTs, in a game where his D was giving him all the opportunity in the world) and see what they've got in their draft pick.
All in all, a solid week. One game under .500 and still have a shot to get mostly even for the season.
NFL 2014 Week 14: 5-2
NFL 2014 Season Total: 22-23
Thursday, December 4, 2014
Extra Pick! Thursday Night Football....
After some sitting on the proverbial fence, I'm going to take the under 51 in the match up in Chicago. I think both teams will try to limit the opportunities for disaster and focus on the run game. Both teams feature high-caliber backs in Forte and Murray, and both teams are fielding QBs that are prone to meltdowns (Cutler just about any time, and Romo in December). Dallas/Chicago UNDER 51.
Wednesday, December 3, 2014
Week 14 Picks
South Florida can be a tough place to play (just ask the Pats and Chargers), but I'm making a play this week on superior coaching. Baltimore's MO has always been closing out gritty, tough games-- think of all those field goal losing/winning games against the Steelers over the past decade. I think the Ravens will be better equipped to handle the pressure of a game that will in all likelyhood leave one team without much hope for the playoffs. They are hurting at giving up the game to the sneaky (and often lucky) Chargers, and I think they will get the win at Miami, coming off an emotional historic road win in New York on a short week. Baltimore +3.
The Steelers are in a similar situation this week, needing to get a win to stay alive after a home loss. I like the Steelers to go get a win in a close game in Cincinnati. Steelers + 3 1/2.
I can still get Carolina with ten points, so I'm going to play on the double digit divisional dogs here, if only for the strong trend. Carolina +10.
I like Kansas City's chances against a fast-fading Cardinals team. The Chiefs put up a fight against Denver once again, and I like them to get a win here. Kansas City +1.
The Eagles are short favorites at home against the visiting Seahawks-- and I think the wrong team is favored here. Seattle's defense is playing better and managing their lack of depth better than early in the season, and I think they should be able to harrass Sanchez into some poor decisions. If Seattle can run long drives with a serious, sustained rushing attack, it should keep the defense fresh enough to keep up with Chip's tempo. Seattle +1.5.
The Patriots get it done in convincing fashion in San Diego. Tom Brady is money ATS after a loss, and they Pats are well aware of the need to win to make sure Peyton Manning comes to Foxboro in January. New England -3 1/2.
The Steelers are in a similar situation this week, needing to get a win to stay alive after a home loss. I like the Steelers to go get a win in a close game in Cincinnati. Steelers + 3 1/2.
I can still get Carolina with ten points, so I'm going to play on the double digit divisional dogs here, if only for the strong trend. Carolina +10.
I like Kansas City's chances against a fast-fading Cardinals team. The Chiefs put up a fight against Denver once again, and I like them to get a win here. Kansas City +1.
The Eagles are short favorites at home against the visiting Seahawks-- and I think the wrong team is favored here. Seattle's defense is playing better and managing their lack of depth better than early in the season, and I think they should be able to harrass Sanchez into some poor decisions. If Seattle can run long drives with a serious, sustained rushing attack, it should keep the defense fresh enough to keep up with Chip's tempo. Seattle +1.5.
The Patriots get it done in convincing fashion in San Diego. Tom Brady is money ATS after a loss, and they Pats are well aware of the need to win to make sure Peyton Manning comes to Foxboro in January. New England -3 1/2.
Week 12 and 13 Recap
Two very, very, bad weeks. Tough stretch. The 0-3 week really hurt; the Jags holding the Colts to a three point lead at the half looked very promising, but not even 14 points could save me on that one. I missed the Saints rebound by a week (and didn't follow up with a play on them in Week 13), as well as Denver (ditto). Both the Saints and Broncos cashed the week after I thought.
I split the Thanksgiving day games-- another game (Chicago and Detroit) that looked promising at the half (sort of like every Florida State game this year at the half, for people like me rooting for them to lose) but ultimately lost. The Pats had a rare SU and ATS loss at the hands of the red-hot Packers.
So we have to rebound a bit with the goal of making up at least a little bit of ground in the last couple of weeks. I'd be estatic to finish near .500 for a minor loss on the season. This has just been one of those years, I guess!
NFL 2014 Week 13: 1-2
NFL 2014 Week 12: 0-3
NFL 2014 Season Total: 17-21
I split the Thanksgiving day games-- another game (Chicago and Detroit) that looked promising at the half (sort of like every Florida State game this year at the half, for people like me rooting for them to lose) but ultimately lost. The Pats had a rare SU and ATS loss at the hands of the red-hot Packers.
So we have to rebound a bit with the goal of making up at least a little bit of ground in the last couple of weeks. I'd be estatic to finish near .500 for a minor loss on the season. This has just been one of those years, I guess!
NFL 2014 Week 13: 1-2
NFL 2014 Week 12: 0-3
NFL 2014 Season Total: 17-21
Sunday, November 30, 2014
Thursday, November 27, 2014
Turkey Day picks!
A little behind getting my post up this week due to holiday travel. I'll do last week's recap next week-- but here are two picks for today's games.
I'm backing Chicago +7; I think there's value in the Bear's offense being able to keep it close against the Lions. Chicago +7
I'm also taking the under 56 in the Eagles/Cowboys game. That's a high number for a divisional game that will likely be played pretty conservatively. Under 56.
I'm backing Chicago +7; I think there's value in the Bear's offense being able to keep it close against the Lions. Chicago +7
I'm also taking the under 56 in the Eagles/Cowboys game. That's a high number for a divisional game that will likely be played pretty conservatively. Under 56.
Thursday, November 20, 2014
Week 12 Picks
I alluded to the issues with the Saints in my Week 11 Recap, especially now that they have dropped 2 games at home, where they usually are so dominant. While it seems they aren't the same team that pasted the Packers back in Week 8, it's really not as bad as it seems. First off, the loss to the 49er's was a close OT loss that was set up by a very questionable call. The Cincinnati game was just getting caught flat-footed-- I would wager that the Saints were looking ahead and feeling good about their divisional chances. Given Atlanta's win to pull into a 1st place tie (with Atlanta having a SU win over the Saints already), New Orleans will be ready to play when Baltimore visits. Baltimore has lost 3 of 5 on the road (with a close road win at Cleveland and a blowout of abyssmal Tampa Bay). I expect a well-prepared, focused effort from Drew Brees and company, aided by a Super Dome that will be a very tough place to play. They need this one before playing 3 of their last 5 on the road. Saints -3.
I'm also taking the Denver Broncos as seven point favorites. The line is a tad bit of overreaction to the loss. I very rarely play favorites like Denver, but I think we are getting some value here against a Miami team that isn't as good as their record might indicate. Broncos -7.
I've got two very interesting trends working against one another this week-- Andrew Luck's stellar record ATS after a loss and double digit divisional dogs. So which one am I taking? This is a tough one, and I should probably just lay off this game, but... The Jags started the season by getting blown out by 14 or more points in their first four games, including a 44-17 beatdown at home against the Colts. In the six games since, they haven't lost by more than 14 points-- against some fairly salty competition (Steelers, Dolphins, Bengals, Browns, Cowboys, and, well, Tennessee). As 14 point dogs, I'll make a move and back the Jags to get enough on the scoreboard to get the ATS win. Jaguars +14.
I'm also taking the Denver Broncos as seven point favorites. The line is a tad bit of overreaction to the loss. I very rarely play favorites like Denver, but I think we are getting some value here against a Miami team that isn't as good as their record might indicate. Broncos -7.
I've got two very interesting trends working against one another this week-- Andrew Luck's stellar record ATS after a loss and double digit divisional dogs. So which one am I taking? This is a tough one, and I should probably just lay off this game, but... The Jags started the season by getting blown out by 14 or more points in their first four games, including a 44-17 beatdown at home against the Colts. In the six games since, they haven't lost by more than 14 points-- against some fairly salty competition (Steelers, Dolphins, Bengals, Browns, Cowboys, and, well, Tennessee). As 14 point dogs, I'll make a move and back the Jags to get enough on the scoreboard to get the ATS win. Jaguars +14.
Week 11 Recap
Back to .500 after another losing week. Detroit was disappointing, as outside of the first quarter, their defense was really solid. I always like the dogs in these low scoring defensive struggles, but Arizona hit them early. The Steelers were a let down as well-- the INT at the end of the 2nd quarter and the ensuing 80-yard TD bomb sealed this game as a loss early. The only bright spot was New England leading basically wire-to-wire en route to a blowout win on the road as 3-point dogs.
This one of those weeks in the NFL-- to me it seems that the big upset week usually happens a little later, in December-- but every season there's one where some big underdogs beat playoff teams. The Rams beatdown of the Broncos was very impressive, especially given how they did it-- shutting down Peyton Manning is a difficult task. The Rams have beat some very, very good teams; while this is something of a surprise, Jeff Fisher is a solid, solid coach. That is looking to be a great hire in St. Louis.
Washington is a mess. I don't envy Jay Gruden as he tries to negotiate the lockerroom, his "star" QB, and a problematic owner. The offense played terribly on Sunday, and got little help from the defense. You know things are bad when you lose to an NFC South team.
Speaking of the NFC South, well, just, wow. New Orleans falls again at home, this time to a Cincinnati team that has been terribly inconsistent for most the year. The Saints feel far-removed from the team that beat Green Bay at home a scant few weeks ago-- or do they? They are a very interesting team to watch down the stretch.
Quietly, KC is tied with Denver atop the AFC West. Denver has to go to Arrowhead on November 30th, too. They had an impressive, physical win against Seattle-- sort of beating the Seahawks at their own game. This is another division-- like the AFC North, the NFC West, the NFC East, and the NFC South-- that is totally up for grabs in the last third of the season. It will be exciting to have so many important, meaningful division games in December.
NFL 2014 Week 11: 1-2
NFL 2014 Season Total: 16-16
Thursday, November 13, 2014
Week 11 Picks
I like three road teams this week. The first of which is the Pats on the road in Indy. Tom Brady +3 is almost always a play, and I like them here. The Colts have a respectable record, but have struggled against likely playoff teams (Eagles, Broncos, and Steelers) and amassed much of their record against the likes of Jacksonville, the Giants, Houston, Tenessee... the home win over Baltimore is probably the highest quality win they have. I expect this to be a close one, and I think the Pats find a way to edge out the Colts at home. New England +3.
I like Detroit this week as short dogs in the desert. I love Bruce Arians and what he's doing in Arizona, but that D-line of Detroit is tough. They should have a field day against Drew Stanton. Stafford and Johnson connect enough to edge out a road win here as the back-up gets rattled by the Lions defense. Detroit + 1 1/2.
I'm also playing on Pittsburgh -6 this week, which is more a play on Mike Tomlin than anything. He'll have this team coached up and ready to play, and I like them to whale on the Titans to shake off the stink of losing to the J-E-T-S last week. Pittsburgh -6.
I like Detroit this week as short dogs in the desert. I love Bruce Arians and what he's doing in Arizona, but that D-line of Detroit is tough. They should have a field day against Drew Stanton. Stafford and Johnson connect enough to edge out a road win here as the back-up gets rattled by the Lions defense. Detroit + 1 1/2.
I'm also playing on Pittsburgh -6 this week, which is more a play on Mike Tomlin than anything. He'll have this team coached up and ready to play, and I like them to whale on the Titans to shake off the stink of losing to the J-E-T-S last week. Pittsburgh -6.
Week 10 Recap
A not-so-stellar 1-2 week, but I'll take it, considering how the KC-Buffalo game could have turned out. The Raiders hung in there for a bit, but have the bad mark of being the first double digit divisional dog to lose ATS. The Panthers - Eagles tilt was busted from the beginning; turning the ball over that many times on the wrong side of the field is a killer for the under.
Speaking of the Eagles, how about that Mark Sanchez? It will be interesting to see if he can continue to play well down the stretch. If so, I'll be interested to hear how the talking heads spin it-- Sanchez having NFL-level talent for real, or just a beneficiary of the system.
I almost took the Saints last week at home as short chalk against a previously reeling SF team; glad I didn't. Though the Saints should have covered (that call on the GW TD at the end of the 4th was pretty sketchy), they didn't. Dodged a bullet there. The Saints are still 4-5 and still basically in control of the worst division in football.
The Jets were surprise winners over a Steelers team that has looked like a real contender the past few weeks. Such is the NFL; once teams start believing the hype, they lay an egg. I really didn't see this coming here, as Mike Tomlin's teams are usually pretty mentally tough when it comes to let down games. Vegas cashed some nice money on this, I think.
Chicago is playing such terrible football right now, but this is a team to watch. They could be deadly ATS with all those weapons, and there might be a spot at some point in the coming weeks to back them. Or, they could just continue to be hardcore terrible.
NFL 2014 Week 10: 1-2
NFL 2014 Season Total: 15-14
Speaking of the Eagles, how about that Mark Sanchez? It will be interesting to see if he can continue to play well down the stretch. If so, I'll be interested to hear how the talking heads spin it-- Sanchez having NFL-level talent for real, or just a beneficiary of the system.
I almost took the Saints last week at home as short chalk against a previously reeling SF team; glad I didn't. Though the Saints should have covered (that call on the GW TD at the end of the 4th was pretty sketchy), they didn't. Dodged a bullet there. The Saints are still 4-5 and still basically in control of the worst division in football.
The Jets were surprise winners over a Steelers team that has looked like a real contender the past few weeks. Such is the NFL; once teams start believing the hype, they lay an egg. I really didn't see this coming here, as Mike Tomlin's teams are usually pretty mentally tough when it comes to let down games. Vegas cashed some nice money on this, I think.
Chicago is playing such terrible football right now, but this is a team to watch. They could be deadly ATS with all those weapons, and there might be a spot at some point in the coming weeks to back them. Or, they could just continue to be hardcore terrible.
NFL 2014 Week 10: 1-2
NFL 2014 Season Total: 15-14
Thursday, November 6, 2014
Week 10 Picks
This is a tight board for Week 10, but there are some value plays. This is not a week one expects to go 3-0 for a sweep, but I'm taking three plays that I feel have a good chance at a 2-1 mark. Not every week you get a gift like Brady getting points at home from last week.
I like the Chiefs as very short (-1 1/2) road chalk at the Bills. The Chiefs have quietly made a respectable 5-3 mark for themselves, with relatively close losses to SF and Denver on the road. Save the first rather inexplicable Week 1 loss to Tenessee at home, they've played well. They aren't getting a lot of talk, even though they trail Denver by 1 game with Denver still having to come to Arrowhead later in the season. The Bills, on the other hand, have garnered their last two W's against the Vikings and Jets. They have a quality win over Detroit, but at this point in the season, I think KC is better team. KC -1 1/2.
I'm going to play the trend of the double digit divisional dog this week, taking the Raiders +12 1/2. I may regret this, but this is such a strong trend that I missed out on last week. They have been playing better... I don't see on paper how this is close, but the trend is what the trend is. Raiders +12 1/2.
I can get a total of 49 now for the Carolina - Philly game. I like the under here. With Sanchez starting and Carolina's defense playing better (and their offense playing terribly), I like this to stay under that big number. I was surprised-- I thought this would be in the 44-46 range. This is a definite play at 49. Carolina/Philly UNDER 49.
I like the Chiefs as very short (-1 1/2) road chalk at the Bills. The Chiefs have quietly made a respectable 5-3 mark for themselves, with relatively close losses to SF and Denver on the road. Save the first rather inexplicable Week 1 loss to Tenessee at home, they've played well. They aren't getting a lot of talk, even though they trail Denver by 1 game with Denver still having to come to Arrowhead later in the season. The Bills, on the other hand, have garnered their last two W's against the Vikings and Jets. They have a quality win over Detroit, but at this point in the season, I think KC is better team. KC -1 1/2.
I'm going to play the trend of the double digit divisional dog this week, taking the Raiders +12 1/2. I may regret this, but this is such a strong trend that I missed out on last week. They have been playing better... I don't see on paper how this is close, but the trend is what the trend is. Raiders +12 1/2.
I can get a total of 49 now for the Carolina - Philly game. I like the under here. With Sanchez starting and Carolina's defense playing better (and their offense playing terribly), I like this to stay under that big number. I was surprised-- I thought this would be in the 44-46 range. This is a definite play at 49. Carolina/Philly UNDER 49.
Week 9 Recap
Ended up being a one-play week, and left some winners on the board. I'm happy to get a win, however, with the Pats manhandling Peyton Manning once again in Foxboro.
The Rams holding on against the 49ers to win outright was something to see. I think we might be seeing San Fran implode rather dramatically. Double digit divisional dogs are now 5-0 ATS and 3-2 SU this season.
The Colts-Giants game looked like it could be close early on, with the Giants stop unit doing a pretty good job roughing up Luck. To his credit, Luck was tough and had a short memory for some of the bad throws he made in the first half. Eli wasn't getting much help from his receivers-- a very depleted and not very talented unit. The Colts defense rebounded in this game, and Vontae Davis was huge all night.
Wither San Diego? The Chargers' usual MO is a very bad start and then a late season run, but they seem to be reversing this trend this year. After a hot start, they are swooning, getting completely pasted by Miami on the road. At 5-4 they aren't out of it yet, but that 3 game losing streak is a bad trend.
The NFC East still provides some good drama-- Romo's back, Sanchez taking over for Chip's offense... The Cowboys seem to have caught a break with Romo's back injury not being too serious (and playing the Jags in London). Nick Foles, on the other hand, looks to be out of commission for at least the major portion of the rest of the regular season. It will be interesting to see this divisional dogfight between these two teams. The Giants and Washington are pretty much out of it, barring some kind of huge turnaround and epic fail on the part of the division leaders (not out of the question if history is any indication).
Seattle still looks very vulnerable, having to hold on to beat the winless Raiders. With the 49ers implosion, Arizona is looking to pull away and lock up the division. Something tells me that the Superbowl curse is likely to rear its head again and quash the playoff hopes of the Seahawks.
NFL 2014 Week 9: 1-0
NFL 2014 Season Total: 14-12
The Rams holding on against the 49ers to win outright was something to see. I think we might be seeing San Fran implode rather dramatically. Double digit divisional dogs are now 5-0 ATS and 3-2 SU this season.
The Colts-Giants game looked like it could be close early on, with the Giants stop unit doing a pretty good job roughing up Luck. To his credit, Luck was tough and had a short memory for some of the bad throws he made in the first half. Eli wasn't getting much help from his receivers-- a very depleted and not very talented unit. The Colts defense rebounded in this game, and Vontae Davis was huge all night.
Wither San Diego? The Chargers' usual MO is a very bad start and then a late season run, but they seem to be reversing this trend this year. After a hot start, they are swooning, getting completely pasted by Miami on the road. At 5-4 they aren't out of it yet, but that 3 game losing streak is a bad trend.
The NFC East still provides some good drama-- Romo's back, Sanchez taking over for Chip's offense... The Cowboys seem to have caught a break with Romo's back injury not being too serious (and playing the Jags in London). Nick Foles, on the other hand, looks to be out of commission for at least the major portion of the rest of the regular season. It will be interesting to see this divisional dogfight between these two teams. The Giants and Washington are pretty much out of it, barring some kind of huge turnaround and epic fail on the part of the division leaders (not out of the question if history is any indication).
Seattle still looks very vulnerable, having to hold on to beat the winless Raiders. With the 49ers implosion, Arizona is looking to pull away and lock up the division. Something tells me that the Superbowl curse is likely to rear its head again and quash the playoff hopes of the Seahawks.
NFL 2014 Week 9: 1-0
NFL 2014 Season Total: 14-12
Monday, November 3, 2014
Week 9 Picks Update
I didn't pull the trigger on the Colts as planned, despite the reports that Wayne and Davis are active. Apparently, there is some chatter that Wayne will be active but isn't 100%. It's about 40 minutes until kick off and I just don't like the angles, despite the situational trend (Andrew Luck ATS after a loss). I'm kicking myself for overthinking the Rams game and getting ahead of the solid play, so I don't want to chase with this game. I'll take my win on the Pats for a 1-0 week this week. I'd much rather kick myself for losing out on a 3-0 weekend by not playing the strong trends on the Colts and Rams than go 1-1. Losing is worse than not winning, as it were.
Tuesday, October 28, 2014
Week 9 Picks
Last week, 4 highly regarded teams lost, and Denver wasn't one of them, handily dispatching the Chargers (with some help from some moderately questionable calls). This week, Manning goes to Foxboro-- a place he has really never played well. I'll take Tom Brady with points-- whenever Manning and Brady get together, the right side is usually the one getting points. Denver's due for a letdown game, and there's something about Foxboro that just seems to get Manning's goat. New England +3 1/2.
I like Andrew Luck after a loss-- he's only lost once ATS after losing SU, but I am waiting for more information on Reggie Wayne and Vontae Davis. If they both play, I'll play on the Colts against the Giants, but if either of them are out, I'll lay off. So, this is something of a conditional pick. More to come.
Also-- despite double digit divisional dogs being 3-0 this year, I'm laying off the Rams - 49ers game. SF is coming off a bye and getting some players back (maybe even Aldon Smith, pending the league office's permission), and St. Louis was decimated by injuries on Sunday-- not the least of which was former No.1 pick in the draft Jake Long, who is now out of the season with a torn ACL. A healthier, rested 49ers team against a team that got really banged up last week is a no play. The situational angle is great, but the handicapping angle is not.
Depending on injuries, this could be a single play kind of week. Stay tuned...
I like Andrew Luck after a loss-- he's only lost once ATS after losing SU, but I am waiting for more information on Reggie Wayne and Vontae Davis. If they both play, I'll play on the Colts against the Giants, but if either of them are out, I'll lay off. So, this is something of a conditional pick. More to come.
Also-- despite double digit divisional dogs being 3-0 this year, I'm laying off the Rams - 49ers game. SF is coming off a bye and getting some players back (maybe even Aldon Smith, pending the league office's permission), and St. Louis was decimated by injuries on Sunday-- not the least of which was former No.1 pick in the draft Jake Long, who is now out of the season with a torn ACL. A healthier, rested 49ers team against a team that got really banged up last week is a no play. The situational angle is great, but the handicapping angle is not.
Depending on injuries, this could be a single play kind of week. Stay tuned...
Week 8 Recap
Got my first 3-0 sweep of the season-- and rather handily, too. The over pick in the Buffalo - New York Jets game went over in the first half, and the Saints won big as short favorites. The double digit divisional dog Washington squad won outright as 10 point dogs, on the road against one of the hottest teams in football with a third string QB.
Just to note-- the 4-D situation is now 3-0 ATS.
Broncos at Chiefs (+12.5, lost by 7)
Bucs at Saints (+11, won outright)
Jets at Pats (+10, lost by 2)
In both of the above SU losses, the dogs had a chance to win or tie near the end of the game.
Detroit had a gritty come-from-behind win in London, after spotting Atlanta 21 points to open the game. Detroit is a tough team to pick as a favorite-- they are 2-3 ATS and 0-3 in their last 3 laying points. Megatron being out hasn't helped, but the play is so inconsistent week to week. The NFC North is shaping up to be a two-team race though; Chicago's meltdown has certainly not helped their position in the division at 3-5 (same as the Vikes!). Still lots of football to be played, but the lockeroom situation in the Windy City is apparently rather toxic. As an aside, I really like having the extra-early game, especially on the West Coast.
Seattle gutted out a win in a defensive struggle in Carolina. The Panthers D looked like the dominant squad from last year for only the first time this season. This was a huge road win for the struggling champs, and surprisingly not a terrible loss for Carolina in the wide-open NFC South.
Speaking of the NFC South, Atlanta (at 2-6) has the most divisional wins at 2. New Orleans and Carolina each have one, but the Saints also have a divisional loss. This race is anybody's who can get a road win or two, it seems.
The most entertaining game was probably the crazy tilt at Heinz Field. A week after shutting out the Bengals at home, the Colts defense looked like a Pop Warner squad against Big Ben and the Steelers. For a moment or two in the 3rd, it looked like Luck was going to mount a signature comeback, but some bad mistakes really cost them. The Colts are not the same team on offense without Reggie Wayne, and on defense, Vontae Davis is key. I also think that this was a clear case of a young team not dealing well with a modest amount of hype stemming from their pretty stellar play over the course of the 5 game win streak. The Steelers, however, needed a win like this, as they have a huge divisional showdown against Baltimore next week.
Philly's streak also ended in the desert against the formidible, NFC West-leading Cardinals. It was a good week for streaks to end, as 4 of the top 6 teams of ESPN's power rankings lost (Dallas, Green Bay, Indy, and Philly). Goes back to the best NFL gambling mantra ever-- no team is ever as bad or as good as everyone thinks.
NFL 2014 Week 8: 3-0
NFL 2014 Season Total: 13-12
Just to note-- the 4-D situation is now 3-0 ATS.
Broncos at Chiefs (+12.5, lost by 7)
Bucs at Saints (+11, won outright)
Jets at Pats (+10, lost by 2)
In both of the above SU losses, the dogs had a chance to win or tie near the end of the game.
Detroit had a gritty come-from-behind win in London, after spotting Atlanta 21 points to open the game. Detroit is a tough team to pick as a favorite-- they are 2-3 ATS and 0-3 in their last 3 laying points. Megatron being out hasn't helped, but the play is so inconsistent week to week. The NFC North is shaping up to be a two-team race though; Chicago's meltdown has certainly not helped their position in the division at 3-5 (same as the Vikes!). Still lots of football to be played, but the lockeroom situation in the Windy City is apparently rather toxic. As an aside, I really like having the extra-early game, especially on the West Coast.
Seattle gutted out a win in a defensive struggle in Carolina. The Panthers D looked like the dominant squad from last year for only the first time this season. This was a huge road win for the struggling champs, and surprisingly not a terrible loss for Carolina in the wide-open NFC South.
Speaking of the NFC South, Atlanta (at 2-6) has the most divisional wins at 2. New Orleans and Carolina each have one, but the Saints also have a divisional loss. This race is anybody's who can get a road win or two, it seems.
The most entertaining game was probably the crazy tilt at Heinz Field. A week after shutting out the Bengals at home, the Colts defense looked like a Pop Warner squad against Big Ben and the Steelers. For a moment or two in the 3rd, it looked like Luck was going to mount a signature comeback, but some bad mistakes really cost them. The Colts are not the same team on offense without Reggie Wayne, and on defense, Vontae Davis is key. I also think that this was a clear case of a young team not dealing well with a modest amount of hype stemming from their pretty stellar play over the course of the 5 game win streak. The Steelers, however, needed a win like this, as they have a huge divisional showdown against Baltimore next week.
Philly's streak also ended in the desert against the formidible, NFC West-leading Cardinals. It was a good week for streaks to end, as 4 of the top 6 teams of ESPN's power rankings lost (Dallas, Green Bay, Indy, and Philly). Goes back to the best NFL gambling mantra ever-- no team is ever as bad or as good as everyone thinks.
NFL 2014 Week 8: 3-0
NFL 2014 Season Total: 13-12
Thursday, October 23, 2014
Week 8 Picks
Three picks this week, and I'm playing some angles on some weird trends. Trends are funny things; there are statistics that bear out over a large sample size (things like elite QBs getting points, double digit divisional dogs, etc.), but variance is always possible. That's why a prudent gambler doesn't bet the farm on a single double digit divisional dog-- variance means that despite the greater possibility of a win based on historical data, the win is by no means a lock (anyone who has ever made a sports wager or played a 100.02% payback video poker machine can tell you that).
Buffalo's under is 6-1 this season. The Jets and Bills have been under 40 only once in their last four meetings-- the previous two years where Rex Ryan's defense has not been dominant. The Jets' defense still has an aura of being good, but really, they aren't anything special. This number is low, and I like the weird Buffalo trend to break this week. Surprisingly, the public is 62% on the under. Even better. Buffalo at NY Jets OVER 40.5.
I like the Saints as very short favorites at home. They've been dominant at home and need this game in the worst way. The Pack is due for a bad game, and the public is pounding them hard, to the tune of 80% or so. This is a good, even great, spot for Brees. Saints -1.
What can I say? I love double digit divisional dogs. I'm not playing any handicapping angle here-- I don't exactly know how a third string QB plays a divisional game against a really hot team and gets the cover (well, hey, Austin Davis...), but long term (and this year especially), the 4-D situation is a solid play. Washington +10.
Buffalo's under is 6-1 this season. The Jets and Bills have been under 40 only once in their last four meetings-- the previous two years where Rex Ryan's defense has not been dominant. The Jets' defense still has an aura of being good, but really, they aren't anything special. This number is low, and I like the weird Buffalo trend to break this week. Surprisingly, the public is 62% on the under. Even better. Buffalo at NY Jets OVER 40.5.
I like the Saints as very short favorites at home. They've been dominant at home and need this game in the worst way. The Pack is due for a bad game, and the public is pounding them hard, to the tune of 80% or so. This is a good, even great, spot for Brees. Saints -1.
What can I say? I love double digit divisional dogs. I'm not playing any handicapping angle here-- I don't exactly know how a third string QB plays a divisional game against a really hot team and gets the cover (well, hey, Austin Davis...), but long term (and this year especially), the 4-D situation is a solid play. Washington +10.
Week 7 Recap
A big card that gave back a game-- that's the story of Week 7. The Seattle bounce back didn't happen; despite Wilson racking up yards and yards and yards, they couldn't get it together to beat Austin Davis's Rams. Statistically, the Seahwaks play should have been good, but the scoreboard is what matters.
I also made an over-reach on the 49ers' D. They've been overachieving to date with so many missing players, and this was clearly the week that those major losses on the defensive side of the ball caught up to them. Manning picked them apart and sent the total over.
The Giants were a huge let down-- after cashing (handily) the Jets pick and the Saints pick (a game with a close score but the +3 really never in doubt in the second half), seeing the Giants fritter away the chance to be competitive in a big divisional road game (for the second time in two weeks) was disappointed. Like many people, when Romo threw that early pick, I felt like the Cowboys were finally going to be the Cowboys. But hand it to Dallas-- they rallied and beat the backdoor cover in the 4th quarter.
I'm not sure what to make of the Colts-- the shutout against Cincinnati was a surprise. Sure, the Bengals were without Green, but still... The Colts aren't exactly a defensive squad that pitches a lot of shut outs. I think this had to do more with "The Bungles" than the Colts. With the Texans loss at Pittsburgh on Monday Night Football, the Colts are comfortably in control of the division. It makes me wonder if we will see another weird Indy meltdown (like the St. Louis blowout at home last year), and certainly prompts a lot of questions about Cincinnati.
The appearance of Colt McCoy in the Washington game was surprising-- we are only a few weeks from the Cousins-over-Griffin discussions, and here he gets benched and McCoy lobs a TD on his first play. I'll be very interested to see what happens this week with McCoy.
Kansas City is one of the quieter, better teams despite their .500 record. After the strong start last year, the faltering down the stretch, and the debacle in the playoffs, Andy Reid's team still doesn't get much press or trust from the media. The win over the Chargers was a huge divisional win for them. Their resume isn't bad-- wins over New England and San Diego are good, and a minor blowout of the Dolphins on the road doesn't hurt. Aside from the inexplicable Week 1 loss to the Titans, the other two losses have been at San Francisco and at Denver-- both relatively close games. They've been underdogs in their last five games and have gone 4-1 ATS and 3-2 SU (and the one loss ATS was a half point loser at SF).
Arizona is the (perhaps not so) surprising leader in the NFC West. With Seattle and San Francisco faltering, the Cardinals have been solid, even through multiple QB injuries and a fairly unproductive stretch from Larry Fitzgerald. Hand it Bruce Arians, who might be a candidate for coach of the year again if their success continues.
NFL 2014 Week 7: 2-3
NFL 2014 Season Total: 10-12
I also made an over-reach on the 49ers' D. They've been overachieving to date with so many missing players, and this was clearly the week that those major losses on the defensive side of the ball caught up to them. Manning picked them apart and sent the total over.
The Giants were a huge let down-- after cashing (handily) the Jets pick and the Saints pick (a game with a close score but the +3 really never in doubt in the second half), seeing the Giants fritter away the chance to be competitive in a big divisional road game (for the second time in two weeks) was disappointed. Like many people, when Romo threw that early pick, I felt like the Cowboys were finally going to be the Cowboys. But hand it to Dallas-- they rallied and beat the backdoor cover in the 4th quarter.
I'm not sure what to make of the Colts-- the shutout against Cincinnati was a surprise. Sure, the Bengals were without Green, but still... The Colts aren't exactly a defensive squad that pitches a lot of shut outs. I think this had to do more with "The Bungles" than the Colts. With the Texans loss at Pittsburgh on Monday Night Football, the Colts are comfortably in control of the division. It makes me wonder if we will see another weird Indy meltdown (like the St. Louis blowout at home last year), and certainly prompts a lot of questions about Cincinnati.
The appearance of Colt McCoy in the Washington game was surprising-- we are only a few weeks from the Cousins-over-Griffin discussions, and here he gets benched and McCoy lobs a TD on his first play. I'll be very interested to see what happens this week with McCoy.
Kansas City is one of the quieter, better teams despite their .500 record. After the strong start last year, the faltering down the stretch, and the debacle in the playoffs, Andy Reid's team still doesn't get much press or trust from the media. The win over the Chargers was a huge divisional win for them. Their resume isn't bad-- wins over New England and San Diego are good, and a minor blowout of the Dolphins on the road doesn't hurt. Aside from the inexplicable Week 1 loss to the Titans, the other two losses have been at San Francisco and at Denver-- both relatively close games. They've been underdogs in their last five games and have gone 4-1 ATS and 3-2 SU (and the one loss ATS was a half point loser at SF).
Arizona is the (perhaps not so) surprising leader in the NFC West. With Seattle and San Francisco faltering, the Cardinals have been solid, even through multiple QB injuries and a fairly unproductive stretch from Larry Fitzgerald. Hand it Bruce Arians, who might be a candidate for coach of the year again if their success continues.
NFL 2014 Week 7: 2-3
NFL 2014 Season Total: 10-12
Thursday, October 16, 2014
Week 7 Picks
This is the biggest card to date this year; there are several solid situational plays with divisional dogs. One of my guiding mantras for betting the NFL is about cashing in on parity-- teams are never as good as we think they are, and teams are never as bad as we think they are.
My first play (getting ready to kick off in about an hour from writing this) is on the Jets +10. Not only are the Jets double digit divisional dogs, but they've looked all shades of terrible at points this season. Still, they managed to be within a score late last week against Denver. On the other side, after a shaky start, the Pats are back to their winning ways. Much as the Patriots have always thumped Buffalo, they have historically always had trouble in Miami and against the Jets-- these games are often very close. So with 10 points, I'll take the Jets to keep it close (ish). New York Jets +10.
What a difference one game makes. The media have been in an uproar about the Seattle Seahawks after their loss to a very good Cowboys team. The Seahawks are fine; they are listed as 7-point favorites most places, and I found them at a window for -6 1/2. I like Seattle to bounce back and get back on track here. Seattle -6 1/2.
Drew Brees with points. Drew Brees with points off a bye. Drew Brees with points off a bye against a Detroit teams sans Megatron (most likely). I always take QBs like Brees, Manning, Brady, etc. with points. This is an easy play for me. New Orleans +3.
After the debacle against the Eagles where they looked like Jacksonville Jaguars, I like the New York Giants to cover against the Cowboys as 6 1/2 point dogs. This is a great situational play-- Cowboys (a team that hasn't dealt with success well in the Romo era) are coming off the emotional high of the biggest win of the past ten years, and the Giants got shut out in a nationally-televised game. This is a great spot to back New York. New York Giants +6 1/2.
San Fran and Denver is a really interesting matchup, and should be a good game. Manning will be playing to tie and/or beat the TD record, and the SF defense would love to make sure that doesn't happen-- and they actually have a shot at that. The Niners secondary is shutting down passing games with great success, and I like them to be jacked for this game. Denying the home crowd the chance to see the TD record broken would be a huge win for them. Combine that with Denver's modestly improved defense, and I'll take the under 50. SF/Denver UNDER 50.
My first play (getting ready to kick off in about an hour from writing this) is on the Jets +10. Not only are the Jets double digit divisional dogs, but they've looked all shades of terrible at points this season. Still, they managed to be within a score late last week against Denver. On the other side, after a shaky start, the Pats are back to their winning ways. Much as the Patriots have always thumped Buffalo, they have historically always had trouble in Miami and against the Jets-- these games are often very close. So with 10 points, I'll take the Jets to keep it close (ish). New York Jets +10.
What a difference one game makes. The media have been in an uproar about the Seattle Seahawks after their loss to a very good Cowboys team. The Seahawks are fine; they are listed as 7-point favorites most places, and I found them at a window for -6 1/2. I like Seattle to bounce back and get back on track here. Seattle -6 1/2.
Drew Brees with points. Drew Brees with points off a bye. Drew Brees with points off a bye against a Detroit teams sans Megatron (most likely). I always take QBs like Brees, Manning, Brady, etc. with points. This is an easy play for me. New Orleans +3.
After the debacle against the Eagles where they looked like Jacksonville Jaguars, I like the New York Giants to cover against the Cowboys as 6 1/2 point dogs. This is a great situational play-- Cowboys (a team that hasn't dealt with success well in the Romo era) are coming off the emotional high of the biggest win of the past ten years, and the Giants got shut out in a nationally-televised game. This is a great spot to back New York. New York Giants +6 1/2.
San Fran and Denver is a really interesting matchup, and should be a good game. Manning will be playing to tie and/or beat the TD record, and the SF defense would love to make sure that doesn't happen-- and they actually have a shot at that. The Niners secondary is shutting down passing games with great success, and I like them to be jacked for this game. Denying the home crowd the chance to see the TD record broken would be a huge win for them. Combine that with Denver's modestly improved defense, and I'll take the under 50. SF/Denver UNDER 50.
Week 6 Recap
A solid week; the Cowboys' win outright at Seattle as 8 1/2 point dogs was an easy cash, as was the Giants-Eagles under. The NFC East matchup didn't go exactly as I had planned, but made for a very, very easy under. My third play of the week was a loser... the TD scored with :03 left sent the total over in the Green Bay - Miami game. I'll take 2-1 any week, which gets me a little closer to .500.
The biggest play of the weekend was a late pick-six, and it cost the sportsbooks BIG. They took all sorts of action on Denver, even having moved the line up to -10. But Geno Smith came through for the public, tossing an INT to Aqib Talib who ran it back to the house for the back-door cover. Crazy. That play cost Vegas some serious coin. The late INT return in the Washington - Arizona game also gave the Cards the cover, though that game was not nearly as heavily bet as the Denver game.
The Colts were again big winners, now 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four. Three of those were divisional games, too, so that's a pretty interesting stat (or maybe it just indicates how terrible the other teams in the AFC South are right now). The Raiders got the cover against San Diego and had chances to win that game several times.
I was very curious to see the Monday Night game this past week. The 49ers as 3 1/2 point favorites against a team starting their last (and very green) QB seemed like a no-brainer. Since Vegas didn't move the line too much, I had a hunch that they were making a play, but didn't go in with them on it-- I just couldn't imagine a situation where the 49ers didn't win it handily. I was kicking myself for not making the situational play on this game during the first quarter, when Austin Davis looked crisp and the Rams were making plays. Tale of two halves, for sure. I think Vegas lost some money on this game too.
NFL 2014 Week 6: 2-1
NFL 2014 Season Total: 8-9
The biggest play of the weekend was a late pick-six, and it cost the sportsbooks BIG. They took all sorts of action on Denver, even having moved the line up to -10. But Geno Smith came through for the public, tossing an INT to Aqib Talib who ran it back to the house for the back-door cover. Crazy. That play cost Vegas some serious coin. The late INT return in the Washington - Arizona game also gave the Cards the cover, though that game was not nearly as heavily bet as the Denver game.
The Colts were again big winners, now 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four. Three of those were divisional games, too, so that's a pretty interesting stat (or maybe it just indicates how terrible the other teams in the AFC South are right now). The Raiders got the cover against San Diego and had chances to win that game several times.
I was very curious to see the Monday Night game this past week. The 49ers as 3 1/2 point favorites against a team starting their last (and very green) QB seemed like a no-brainer. Since Vegas didn't move the line too much, I had a hunch that they were making a play, but didn't go in with them on it-- I just couldn't imagine a situation where the 49ers didn't win it handily. I was kicking myself for not making the situational play on this game during the first quarter, when Austin Davis looked crisp and the Rams were making plays. Tale of two halves, for sure. I think Vegas lost some money on this game too.
NFL 2014 Week 6: 2-1
NFL 2014 Season Total: 8-9
Wednesday, October 8, 2014
Week 6 Picks
This week doesn't present much in the way of great situational match-ups. The 4-1 Cowboys are the largest dogs of the week, owing to the significant challenge of taking on the Seahawks in Seattle (more on that later). Most of the divisional match-ups seem to be right where they should be; even the hapless Raiders started as less than a touchdown dogs (the line has been bet up to San Diego -7 1/2 at most windows). Not much value in the spreads in most of these match-ups, to be sure.
The one I do like is the Cowboys as road underdogs of +8 1/2. Seattle is coming off of a 10 point victory that should have been much, much bigger (Seattle's penalty problem was apparent in the tilt against Washington), and Russell Wilson did make some really amazing plays. The penalties could have really cost them had Washington been able to cash in on some opportunities. Playing from behind, Washington abandoned the run and just had to try to pass their way back into the game late. As well as the Cowboys have run the ball, and as well as the Seahawks can run, I look for this game to be a physical slugfest. I don't get the sense that we'll see Romo unchained and passing every play unless they get down big early. I like this game to be a slog, run-center affair, which always tips the scale to a dog as big as the 'Boys. Cowboys +8 1/2.
I like the under in the Giants-Eagles game. The final scores for the Philly games have been a little misleading, owing to the special teams plays the last couple of weeks, which have definitely padded the scores. This is a grudge match and one of the better rivalries in the NFL; I think both teams will be a little more cautious. Though this series' history is full of shoot outs, I think this one is a down-tempo event that favors the under. Giants-Eagles UNDER 50 1/2.
I also like the under in the Green Bay - Miami game. The Green Bay defense has improved, holding the high-octane offenses of Chicago and Detroit under 20 points. In the games since the Seattle drubbing, they've allowed 17 1/2 points per game. Miami is inconsistent on offense, to say the least. The path to the under probably involves Green Bay getting an early lead and eating clock with the run game. Green Bay - Miami UNDER 49 1/2.
The one I do like is the Cowboys as road underdogs of +8 1/2. Seattle is coming off of a 10 point victory that should have been much, much bigger (Seattle's penalty problem was apparent in the tilt against Washington), and Russell Wilson did make some really amazing plays. The penalties could have really cost them had Washington been able to cash in on some opportunities. Playing from behind, Washington abandoned the run and just had to try to pass their way back into the game late. As well as the Cowboys have run the ball, and as well as the Seahawks can run, I look for this game to be a physical slugfest. I don't get the sense that we'll see Romo unchained and passing every play unless they get down big early. I like this game to be a slog, run-center affair, which always tips the scale to a dog as big as the 'Boys. Cowboys +8 1/2.
I like the under in the Giants-Eagles game. The final scores for the Philly games have been a little misleading, owing to the special teams plays the last couple of weeks, which have definitely padded the scores. This is a grudge match and one of the better rivalries in the NFL; I think both teams will be a little more cautious. Though this series' history is full of shoot outs, I think this one is a down-tempo event that favors the under. Giants-Eagles UNDER 50 1/2.
I also like the under in the Green Bay - Miami game. The Green Bay defense has improved, holding the high-octane offenses of Chicago and Detroit under 20 points. In the games since the Seattle drubbing, they've allowed 17 1/2 points per game. Miami is inconsistent on offense, to say the least. The path to the under probably involves Green Bay getting an early lead and eating clock with the run game. Green Bay - Miami UNDER 49 1/2.
Week 5 Recap
Got a game back this week with a solid 2-1 showing; the stalled late drive in the Atlanta-New York game cost me the backdoor cover, but the New England and Tampa Bay plays were easy winners for sure. I may have gotten a little greedy trying to get all three games I dropped the previous week back; I liked the situational aspect of the loser, but Matty Ice once again was less-than-stellar on the road.
There were some really interesting games from a fan perspective this weekend-- the Bucs and Saints was certianly a thriller, and I always love those crazy comebacks (though I'm not sure if that's more props to Cleveland or a Herm-esque "c'mon man" to the Titans D). The Monday night game was competitive for a goodly portion, and watching Russell Wilson turn busted plays into big plays was cool to behold.
The oft-maligned NFC had a good showing in Week 5, with the Giants, Cowboys, and Eagles getting wins and the Redskins looking not-terrible against the defending champs. The Cowboys look pretty solid, but everyone seems to be waiting with bated breath for the usual swoon-- this weekend against Seattle seems a likely place for them to fold, but if history serves a lesson, they could win this one outright and then drop three-of-four moving ahead.
The other team that I'm waiting to start a skid is the San Diego Chargers. To date, they've looked pretty decent, with a huge signature win against Seattle. Usually given to slow starts, the Bolts seem to have it together. But I'm not on the San Diego bandwagon yet-- I usually like them as late season dogs, but I just don't trust them to cover reliably as favorites. The shutout win over the Jets probably has more to do with the Jets being god awful. How much longer is Rex Ryan employed? This season is all but done for them, sitting at 1-4.
NFL 2014 Week 4: 2-1
NFL 2014 Season Total: 6-8
There were some really interesting games from a fan perspective this weekend-- the Bucs and Saints was certianly a thriller, and I always love those crazy comebacks (though I'm not sure if that's more props to Cleveland or a Herm-esque "c'mon man" to the Titans D). The Monday night game was competitive for a goodly portion, and watching Russell Wilson turn busted plays into big plays was cool to behold.
The oft-maligned NFC had a good showing in Week 5, with the Giants, Cowboys, and Eagles getting wins and the Redskins looking not-terrible against the defending champs. The Cowboys look pretty solid, but everyone seems to be waiting with bated breath for the usual swoon-- this weekend against Seattle seems a likely place for them to fold, but if history serves a lesson, they could win this one outright and then drop three-of-four moving ahead.
The other team that I'm waiting to start a skid is the San Diego Chargers. To date, they've looked pretty decent, with a huge signature win against Seattle. Usually given to slow starts, the Bolts seem to have it together. But I'm not on the San Diego bandwagon yet-- I usually like them as late season dogs, but I just don't trust them to cover reliably as favorites. The shutout win over the Jets probably has more to do with the Jets being god awful. How much longer is Rex Ryan employed? This season is all but done for them, sitting at 1-4.
NFL 2014 Week 4: 2-1
NFL 2014 Season Total: 6-8
Wednesday, October 1, 2014
Week 5 Picks
Time to get back on track here-- Week 5 has some interesting match ups and some teams in some pretty decent spots.
I always take double digit underdogs in divisional games, so I'm making a play on Tampa Bay +10 1/2 at New Orleans. This one is a bit scary-- NO traditionally plays very, very well at home, especially coming off a loss. But I'll take the statistics on this one and play on the Bucs. Tampa Bay +10 1/2.
Not-High-Fiving-Tom-Brady is almost always money after a loss. Last year, the Pats were home underdogs in only one game-- against the visiting Broncos. The Pats won outright as 2 1/2 point dogs. Before that, it had been 8 years! I like taking QBs like Brady, Manning and Brees as home dogs, so I'll take the Patriots this week getting a small bit. New England +1.5.
I like the situational angle in the Atlanta - New York game-- the Falcons coming off a bad loss to a subpar team, and the Giants coming off a huge nationally-televised pasting of a divisional rival. Atlanta doesn't play extremely well on the road, but I like them to cover the 4. Atlanta +4.
Three dog kind of week here-- let's atone for last week's debacle and climb back in this thing.
I always take double digit underdogs in divisional games, so I'm making a play on Tampa Bay +10 1/2 at New Orleans. This one is a bit scary-- NO traditionally plays very, very well at home, especially coming off a loss. But I'll take the statistics on this one and play on the Bucs. Tampa Bay +10 1/2.
Not-High-Fiving-Tom-Brady is almost always money after a loss. Last year, the Pats were home underdogs in only one game-- against the visiting Broncos. The Pats won outright as 2 1/2 point dogs. Before that, it had been 8 years! I like taking QBs like Brady, Manning and Brees as home dogs, so I'll take the Patriots this week getting a small bit. New England +1.5.
I like the situational angle in the Atlanta - New York game-- the Falcons coming off a bad loss to a subpar team, and the Giants coming off a huge nationally-televised pasting of a divisional rival. Atlanta doesn't play extremely well on the road, but I like them to cover the 4. Atlanta +4.
Three dog kind of week here-- let's atone for last week's debacle and climb back in this thing.
Week 4 Recap
I haven't had a 0-3 weekend for a long while. This week was a bad one. I should have waited to get SF -3.5 or -4, which is what most shops had near kick-off. Vegas had this one right-- they didn't count on the special teams and defensive TDs coming up so big. This marks the second time this season I got hosed by Darren Sproles! But the game has hadicapped correctly-- the Niners we are able to neutrilize the Philly offense, and had enough offense of their own to win it. Were it not for the special teams meltdowns, this would have been an easy cover. Ah, well.
The Jets game was a mess from the beginning. Enough said.
The under got blown on two 4th Q FGs in the Baltimore-Carolina game. Thought I might survive that one, but alas, no.
So we got to regroup. Vegas did okay this week-- they cashed in big on the KC win Monday night and made a little money with the Minnesota win over the favored Falcons. The Cowboys got a big win and now that they are utilizing Murray better, they look like contenders in the NFC East again (until they don't, which is usually the Dallas MO). Colts got an easy and big win over a division rival to pull 2-2 and 2-0 in the division. The Raiders... wow. I had a slight lean on them to make it somewhat competitive, but they trounced and sent the coach packing.
I'm going to take a page from the Aaron Rodgers playbook. It's a long season... R-E-L-A-X.
NFL 2014 Week 4: 0-3
NFL 2014 Season Total: 4-7
The Jets game was a mess from the beginning. Enough said.
The under got blown on two 4th Q FGs in the Baltimore-Carolina game. Thought I might survive that one, but alas, no.
So we got to regroup. Vegas did okay this week-- they cashed in big on the KC win Monday night and made a little money with the Minnesota win over the favored Falcons. The Cowboys got a big win and now that they are utilizing Murray better, they look like contenders in the NFC East again (until they don't, which is usually the Dallas MO). Colts got an easy and big win over a division rival to pull 2-2 and 2-0 in the division. The Raiders... wow. I had a slight lean on them to make it somewhat competitive, but they trounced and sent the coach packing.
I'm going to take a page from the Aaron Rodgers playbook. It's a long season... R-E-L-A-X.
NFL 2014 Week 4: 0-3
NFL 2014 Season Total: 4-7
Wednesday, September 24, 2014
Week 4 Picks
This board is tight-- I think most of the lines are right about where they should be, so if you are looking for value (and you always should be!) this is not the week.
Interesting line movements, though-- SF began at -4 over Philly, and with everyone and his mother coming in on the Eagles, the line has moved to... SF -5 or -5 1/2. I actually like SF in this spot-- desperate for a win to stay apace in the division, facing a hot team that eeked out victories from behind the first three weeks, the last two especially. I really wanted this game around a field goal, but I'm going to play with Vegas on this one. SF -5.
The other game Vegas is really pounding is Detroit at the Jets. Coming off a win against Green Bay, the Lions should be an easy cash against the turnover prone Jets who just got destroyed on national television, right? Geno Smith actually has a history of following up those multi-INT games with solid performances. The Jets D is still pretty legit. I'll hitch my wagon to the books on this one, too. Jets +1.5.
I can get a total of 41 in the Carolina-Baltimore match up. I like the under in that game; I look for the Carolina defense to get back on track and don't trust their offense to do much in this contest. Under 41.
Interesting line movements, though-- SF began at -4 over Philly, and with everyone and his mother coming in on the Eagles, the line has moved to... SF -5 or -5 1/2. I actually like SF in this spot-- desperate for a win to stay apace in the division, facing a hot team that eeked out victories from behind the first three weeks, the last two especially. I really wanted this game around a field goal, but I'm going to play with Vegas on this one. SF -5.
The other game Vegas is really pounding is Detroit at the Jets. Coming off a win against Green Bay, the Lions should be an easy cash against the turnover prone Jets who just got destroyed on national television, right? Geno Smith actually has a history of following up those multi-INT games with solid performances. The Jets D is still pretty legit. I'll hitch my wagon to the books on this one, too. Jets +1.5.
I can get a total of 41 in the Carolina-Baltimore match up. I like the under in that game; I look for the Carolina defense to get back on track and don't trust their offense to do much in this contest. Under 41.
Week 3 Recap
Split this weekend to go 4-4 overall; I stand by the Broncos pick, just got tripped up by the TD in OT (I don't have the stats in front of me, but the number of OT games that don't end up 3 point games is very low). In a certain sense, the Broncos were undone by their own offensive power-- moving down the field to score the TD and conversion made the Seahawks wary of trying to win with the kicking game, I'm sure. It was a smart play, but cost me a game I probably should have won (man, was I rooting for the 2 point conversion to fail!).
The Colts were an easy cover basically wire-to-wire. I don't usually take favorites in division game, but this one had blowout written all over it. It was a nice spot for the previously 0-2 (but playing well) Colts to get a much needed win and the cover.
Vegas took it on the chin in the Cowboys game-- for most of that game, the linesmakers looked like geniuses. They don't win them all, and this one cost. Luckily for the books, the Pats narrowly dispatched the Raiders and gave up the cover. That helped even things out a bit.
NFL 2014 Week 3: 1-1
NFL 2014 Season Total: 4-4
The Colts were an easy cover basically wire-to-wire. I don't usually take favorites in division game, but this one had blowout written all over it. It was a nice spot for the previously 0-2 (but playing well) Colts to get a much needed win and the cover.
Vegas took it on the chin in the Cowboys game-- for most of that game, the linesmakers looked like geniuses. They don't win them all, and this one cost. Luckily for the books, the Pats narrowly dispatched the Raiders and gave up the cover. That helped even things out a bit.
NFL 2014 Week 3: 1-1
NFL 2014 Season Total: 4-4
Wednesday, September 17, 2014
NFL Week 3 Picks
The Chargers' big win really screwed up a possible good play this week. Taking a team off a big upset win is usually very bad news; I was hoping to get the Chargers a little more desparate and under-valued for this week's match-up against the Bills. They are 2 1/2 point dogs at this point, which would have been more had SD not pulled out the surprising win over the defending champs. I still like the Bolts to cover here, but not enough to trust Rivers with my money at that number. Slight lean and no play.
Speaking of setting up good plays-- I'm rooting hard for the Texans this week. Not because I'm betting on them, but because ANOTHER loss for the Giants will set them up as huge dogs in the Week 4 match up in primetime against division rival Washington. If the Team from Washington can manage to upset Philly, even better. I'd love to get NY as a double digit divisional dog on a nationally televised game.
It looks like Vegas is setting up a trap game an the Cowboys. The Cowboys are a huge public team, and they are very, very short favorites on the road this week in St. Louis. The Rams have looked like this year's Jags (i.e., woeful), and the Cowboys got a W last week... so Dallas -1 looks like a no-brainer, right? With 92% of the money on Dallas, the line isn't moving. That very, very often indicates that Vegas knows something we don't. Or at least, they know enough to be willing to overload the books on the Dallas side and gamble. Vegas doesn't always win, but they win more of these games than they lose. That being said, I don't see how Dallas loses this game-- and that's saying a lot, since each year the Cowboys are extraordinarily adept at inventing new ways to lose. I'll stay off this one, and will enjoy seeing is Vegas cashes or takes it on the chin.
If I did some digging, I might be able to find the last time an 0-2 team was an 11-point favorite, but suffice to say that's a rare thing indeed. I actually think the Saints have a good chance of covering here; it just depends on how aggressively they come after Cassell. If they rattle him like New England did, the Vikings could get blown out again. However, you'd be out of your mind to eat that much chalk on a 0-2 team, even one with Drew Brees. Interesting to see how this one plays out.
More interesting storylines in the lines this week than good plays, but I have two this week...
So what to do about the Colts this week? Like New Orleans, this is a pretty good team that's 0-2. The Colts came up short in a game on the road to the Super Bowl runner-up, and should have beat Philly at home. At 0-2, the Wild Card will be very, very difficult to catch. They only road to the playoffs is probably to win the division, and they will be looking to pound the Jags. Indy's defensive unit did a mostly decent job against Philly, except for Sproles, which no Indy D in the last ten years has been able to contain. They ran the ball effectively. Reggie Wayne is back and playing out of his mind (including fumble recoveries and tackling-- the dude does everything). The Jags are-- generously speaking-- modestly improved over last year and shouldn't stand a chance... but-- the stats are what the stats are. Road favorites in divisional games don't cover the number very well. I think this game is an exception, as had the Colts beat Philly, this line would be around 10, 10 1/2 points. I'm risking getting whacked by the same team in consecutive weeks, but I'm taking the Colts -6 1/2.
The big game, of course, is the rematch of The Big Game. Denver has a somewhat improved defense and a very, very bad taste in their mouths from the pasting they got in Manning's 3rd SB appearance. Here's some interesting research I did today: Peyton Manning has faced the team in the regular season that knocked him out of the playoffs in the previous year five times in his career. Manning is 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU in these situations. He is often knocked as the greatest regular season QB (a deliberatly back-handed compliment), but the stats are there-- Manning gets his revenge. Denver +5.
Speaking of setting up good plays-- I'm rooting hard for the Texans this week. Not because I'm betting on them, but because ANOTHER loss for the Giants will set them up as huge dogs in the Week 4 match up in primetime against division rival Washington. If the Team from Washington can manage to upset Philly, even better. I'd love to get NY as a double digit divisional dog on a nationally televised game.
It looks like Vegas is setting up a trap game an the Cowboys. The Cowboys are a huge public team, and they are very, very short favorites on the road this week in St. Louis. The Rams have looked like this year's Jags (i.e., woeful), and the Cowboys got a W last week... so Dallas -1 looks like a no-brainer, right? With 92% of the money on Dallas, the line isn't moving. That very, very often indicates that Vegas knows something we don't. Or at least, they know enough to be willing to overload the books on the Dallas side and gamble. Vegas doesn't always win, but they win more of these games than they lose. That being said, I don't see how Dallas loses this game-- and that's saying a lot, since each year the Cowboys are extraordinarily adept at inventing new ways to lose. I'll stay off this one, and will enjoy seeing is Vegas cashes or takes it on the chin.
If I did some digging, I might be able to find the last time an 0-2 team was an 11-point favorite, but suffice to say that's a rare thing indeed. I actually think the Saints have a good chance of covering here; it just depends on how aggressively they come after Cassell. If they rattle him like New England did, the Vikings could get blown out again. However, you'd be out of your mind to eat that much chalk on a 0-2 team, even one with Drew Brees. Interesting to see how this one plays out.
More interesting storylines in the lines this week than good plays, but I have two this week...
So what to do about the Colts this week? Like New Orleans, this is a pretty good team that's 0-2. The Colts came up short in a game on the road to the Super Bowl runner-up, and should have beat Philly at home. At 0-2, the Wild Card will be very, very difficult to catch. They only road to the playoffs is probably to win the division, and they will be looking to pound the Jags. Indy's defensive unit did a mostly decent job against Philly, except for Sproles, which no Indy D in the last ten years has been able to contain. They ran the ball effectively. Reggie Wayne is back and playing out of his mind (including fumble recoveries and tackling-- the dude does everything). The Jags are-- generously speaking-- modestly improved over last year and shouldn't stand a chance... but-- the stats are what the stats are. Road favorites in divisional games don't cover the number very well. I think this game is an exception, as had the Colts beat Philly, this line would be around 10, 10 1/2 points. I'm risking getting whacked by the same team in consecutive weeks, but I'm taking the Colts -6 1/2.
The big game, of course, is the rematch of The Big Game. Denver has a somewhat improved defense and a very, very bad taste in their mouths from the pasting they got in Manning's 3rd SB appearance. Here's some interesting research I did today: Peyton Manning has faced the team in the regular season that knocked him out of the playoffs in the previous year five times in his career. Manning is 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU in these situations. He is often knocked as the greatest regular season QB (a deliberatly back-handed compliment), but the stats are there-- Manning gets his revenge. Denver +5.
Week 2 Recap
Sometimes you are on the right side and still lose, and sometimes you are on the wrong side and still win. The Eagles-Colts tilt on Monday Night was the former for sure-- a whole lot of unlikely events had to happen in a very short span of time to blow my Colts pick.
Unlikely Thing #1: Chuck and Pep have a collective dumbass attack on the sideline and decide not to run the ball for the first down, knowing that worst case they could take the 3 points from a Vinatieri field goal to go up by 10 points with 5:08 left... on a night when the Colts could actually run the ball effectively against the Philly stop unit.
Unlikely Thing #2: Andrew Luck throws an interception trying to convert on a play that should have been a running play (see above)
Unlikely Thing #3: Related to #2-- this should never have been a pick. Refs miss a painfully obvious call on Boykin.
Unlikely Thing #4: Refs miss an obvious call (see #3) then randomly compensate by calling a highly questionable horsecollar tackle on Landry, which gives the Eagles the first down and 15 yards. Sproles awesomeness happens for 51 yards, and yeah, well, there you have it.
So a perfect storm of suck can really derail an otherwise solid play. Over the course of the season, you are going to have them. It happens. Taking the long view over 5 months of the NFL, these kinds of losses will be cancelled out by a few wins the you edge out when you make a bad call. So we regroup. It was still a profitable week, going 2-1 (or, 2-1-0-1 if you want to use wins/losses/ties/moral victories [which don't pay as well]). That puts me at 3-3 for the year, but on the right track.
Speaking of getting a call wrong and getting bailed out.. remember when I didn't take the Steelers because I couldn't get them at +3 and took the under instead? The fact that the line was Steelers +2 1/2 saved me a loss there; the under was a pretty easy cash.
The KC-Denver game was just as expected-- huge divisional dog on the road covers the spread. I was a little worried when Jamal Charles went out early, but the Chiefs hung tough and took Denver to the wire.
I'll take a winning week any week, even a 2-1.
NFL 2014 Week 2: 2-1
NFL 2014 Season Total: 3-3
Unlikely Thing #1: Chuck and Pep have a collective dumbass attack on the sideline and decide not to run the ball for the first down, knowing that worst case they could take the 3 points from a Vinatieri field goal to go up by 10 points with 5:08 left... on a night when the Colts could actually run the ball effectively against the Philly stop unit.
Unlikely Thing #2: Andrew Luck throws an interception trying to convert on a play that should have been a running play (see above)
Unlikely Thing #3: Related to #2-- this should never have been a pick. Refs miss a painfully obvious call on Boykin.
Unlikely Thing #4: Refs miss an obvious call (see #3) then randomly compensate by calling a highly questionable horsecollar tackle on Landry, which gives the Eagles the first down and 15 yards. Sproles awesomeness happens for 51 yards, and yeah, well, there you have it.
So a perfect storm of suck can really derail an otherwise solid play. Over the course of the season, you are going to have them. It happens. Taking the long view over 5 months of the NFL, these kinds of losses will be cancelled out by a few wins the you edge out when you make a bad call. So we regroup. It was still a profitable week, going 2-1 (or, 2-1-0-1 if you want to use wins/losses/ties/moral victories [which don't pay as well]). That puts me at 3-3 for the year, but on the right track.
Speaking of getting a call wrong and getting bailed out.. remember when I didn't take the Steelers because I couldn't get them at +3 and took the under instead? The fact that the line was Steelers +2 1/2 saved me a loss there; the under was a pretty easy cash.
The KC-Denver game was just as expected-- huge divisional dog on the road covers the spread. I was a little worried when Jamal Charles went out early, but the Chiefs hung tough and took Denver to the wire.
I'll take a winning week any week, even a 2-1.
NFL 2014 Week 2: 2-1
NFL 2014 Season Total: 3-3
Thursday, September 11, 2014
Week 2 Picks
Time to rebound... I wish I had the Steelers at +3. I'm not playing it at +2 1/2, just too risky. This is a series I generally always take the dog at a field goal. This series is almost always decided by a field goal or less-- 10 of 13 now in the Flacco - Big Ben era. All the off field stuff and the 1/2 point are making me stay off this one. I wouldn't be surprised if the Steelers win this outright, but I'm just going to play safe and stay away.
I do, however, like the total here. The last time these two teams scored over 43 points was in the playoffs for the 2010 season (game played in January 2011). I can get 45 now, so I'm taking the UNDER 45 in this game.
One trend I love is playing double digit divisional dogs. Divisional games are always closer than the public thinks, and Vegas has no problem printing tickets for double digit chalk all weekend. For that reason, I'm taking the now-left-for-dead Kansas City at +12 1/2 against Denver.
Andrew Luck is money ATS after a loss. I'll take the Colts to outlast the Eagles at home in a potential shootout. Colts -3.
I'm interested to see what happens with the Pats and Vikings game. The line movement is pretty interesting, as the line has moved from Pats -5 to Pats -3.5 with nearly 2/3 of the money on New England. If we had more like 80% on the Pats, I'd bite on the Vikings. This is one to watch on Sunday morning when all the tourist money comes into Vegas...
I do, however, like the total here. The last time these two teams scored over 43 points was in the playoffs for the 2010 season (game played in January 2011). I can get 45 now, so I'm taking the UNDER 45 in this game.
One trend I love is playing double digit divisional dogs. Divisional games are always closer than the public thinks, and Vegas has no problem printing tickets for double digit chalk all weekend. For that reason, I'm taking the now-left-for-dead Kansas City at +12 1/2 against Denver.
Andrew Luck is money ATS after a loss. I'll take the Colts to outlast the Eagles at home in a potential shootout. Colts -3.
I'm interested to see what happens with the Pats and Vikings game. The line movement is pretty interesting, as the line has moved from Pats -5 to Pats -3.5 with nearly 2/3 of the money on New England. If we had more like 80% on the Pats, I'd bite on the Vikings. This is one to watch on Sunday morning when all the tourist money comes into Vegas...
Week 1 Recap
Starting out with a loser is always rough, but it's a long season, so I'm not getting too worked up about it. It's my own fault-- I almost always play with the house (but never against), and I left two winners on the board with Atlanta and Miami (in both cases, the heavily bet sides [Pats and Saints] didn't move the line too terribly much, as Vegas was trying to attract money to the Pats and Saints to clean up.. and clean up they did!). Miss out on those.
The Green Bay was a little frustrating because of the rather unusual Packer miscues. Some of those 1st half mistakes were just killer, and seemed to happen just when the momentum was seemingly shifting. Those mistakes against that team-- that's how competitive games and 'dog covers turn into blowouts. I really was banking on GB playing sharp and smart, but they let me down.
The Dallas game was just a debacle. Those early mistakes cost what should have been a solid Dallas cover.
At least my total play was good-- I was worried when Philly basically spotted the Jags 17 points, but they kept it under the number (barely).
The most entertaining game might have been the "almost" comeback from the heart attack Colts. I love watching Andrew Luck bring that team roaring back, as he did so many times last season. Not quite enough to tie it late, but after the first half, coming back to get the cover was pretty solid.
Man, the Giants suck. Not as bad as my picks for Week 1, but it was close.
NFL 2014 Week 1: 1-2
NFL 2014 Season Total:1-2
The Green Bay was a little frustrating because of the rather unusual Packer miscues. Some of those 1st half mistakes were just killer, and seemed to happen just when the momentum was seemingly shifting. Those mistakes against that team-- that's how competitive games and 'dog covers turn into blowouts. I really was banking on GB playing sharp and smart, but they let me down.
The Dallas game was just a debacle. Those early mistakes cost what should have been a solid Dallas cover.
At least my total play was good-- I was worried when Philly basically spotted the Jags 17 points, but they kept it under the number (barely).
The most entertaining game might have been the "almost" comeback from the heart attack Colts. I love watching Andrew Luck bring that team roaring back, as he did so many times last season. Not quite enough to tie it late, but after the first half, coming back to get the cover was pretty solid.
Man, the Giants suck. Not as bad as my picks for Week 1, but it was close.
NFL 2014 Week 1: 1-2
NFL 2014 Season Total:1-2
Thursday, September 4, 2014
The 2014 NFL Season is here!
After countless annoying preseason games, a few decent college games to whet our collective appetites for football, and a lot of fanfare, the 2014 NFL season is here. Finally. More importantly, the quest to make money is upon us-- as the saying goes, "Money won is sweeter than money earned". I ended up +7.2 units for the season last year, which I'll take any year-- any time you are in the black you should be happy.
I have a few picks this week, though early season (and especially Week 1) can be dangerous. One of the worst things a gambler can do is listen to the inane punditry on ESPN and sports radio-- who's going to be improved, who's over-rated, etc. They rarely base their opinions on hard data and aren't terribly useful-- they are after all providing entertainment, not data-driven analysis that is useful.
The first pick I'm making this week is a play on Green Bay. I think the line should be around a field goal for this match up between two really good teams, so to get the Packers at +5 1/2 is value. Superbowl winners often have slow starts, but that's really not what I'm counting on; the Packers will be ready and looking to prove last year's disappointment was an aberration. The underwhelming season Green Bay had last year was mostly due to the significant injury at QB. They really never recovered from the 4-0-1 stretch they had in the middle of season, but still managed to squeak into the playoffs, losing by a field goal to the 49ers. The Packers will be looking to right the ship, and probably still remember the last time they played in Seattle-- the horrible officiating call that cost them the game. I like the value on the dog here. Green Bay +5 1/2.
I like the UNDER 53 in the Jacksonville - Philadelphia game. 53 points is a lot of points, especially when one of the teams is Jacksonville. This is a team that scored over 20 points only three times last year; I don't expect a great deal from their offense in this game either. Philly can score, but should also be able to control the clock late in the game if needed. I just don't see 53 points in this game. Jacksonville / Philadelphia UNDER 53.
I like the Cowboys as home dogs of 5 points-- SF is good, but Dallas has enough to hang in there, especially at home. SF ground out short wins against top-tier teams last year, and it wouldn't surprise me if they won here. I do, however, think 5 is a lot to cover on the road, especially with a team like Dallas that can really put up the points at time. Dallas +5.
I almost pulled the trigger on the NE and MIA game; Miami has always played the Pats tough at home, and I'd be all over this if this were Week 3. There's just too much that can go wrong the first week, and the professionalism of Pats' organization (something lacking in Miami last year) probably insulates them from some of the risk. I'll stay off. I'm also staying off two other "leans"-- the under in the Denver / Indy game and the Chargers making a close game out in the desert. Interesting match-ups, but not enough to risk any capital this year.
I have a few picks this week, though early season (and especially Week 1) can be dangerous. One of the worst things a gambler can do is listen to the inane punditry on ESPN and sports radio-- who's going to be improved, who's over-rated, etc. They rarely base their opinions on hard data and aren't terribly useful-- they are after all providing entertainment, not data-driven analysis that is useful.
The first pick I'm making this week is a play on Green Bay. I think the line should be around a field goal for this match up between two really good teams, so to get the Packers at +5 1/2 is value. Superbowl winners often have slow starts, but that's really not what I'm counting on; the Packers will be ready and looking to prove last year's disappointment was an aberration. The underwhelming season Green Bay had last year was mostly due to the significant injury at QB. They really never recovered from the 4-0-1 stretch they had in the middle of season, but still managed to squeak into the playoffs, losing by a field goal to the 49ers. The Packers will be looking to right the ship, and probably still remember the last time they played in Seattle-- the horrible officiating call that cost them the game. I like the value on the dog here. Green Bay +5 1/2.
I like the UNDER 53 in the Jacksonville - Philadelphia game. 53 points is a lot of points, especially when one of the teams is Jacksonville. This is a team that scored over 20 points only three times last year; I don't expect a great deal from their offense in this game either. Philly can score, but should also be able to control the clock late in the game if needed. I just don't see 53 points in this game. Jacksonville / Philadelphia UNDER 53.
I like the Cowboys as home dogs of 5 points-- SF is good, but Dallas has enough to hang in there, especially at home. SF ground out short wins against top-tier teams last year, and it wouldn't surprise me if they won here. I do, however, think 5 is a lot to cover on the road, especially with a team like Dallas that can really put up the points at time. Dallas +5.
I almost pulled the trigger on the NE and MIA game; Miami has always played the Pats tough at home, and I'd be all over this if this were Week 3. There's just too much that can go wrong the first week, and the professionalism of Pats' organization (something lacking in Miami last year) probably insulates them from some of the risk. I'll stay off. I'm also staying off two other "leans"-- the under in the Denver / Indy game and the Chargers making a close game out in the desert. Interesting match-ups, but not enough to risk any capital this year.
Saturday, January 4, 2014
2013 Regular Season Recap
Week 16 was a loser for me, going 2-3 (the Saints defense killed me in allowing that last Carolina TD drive), and I stayed off the craziness of Week 17-- the last few weeks of the season were not particularly good for me, and rather than chase and give up more money, I elected to sit on my winnings and be happy with a winning season. Looking back on the regular season, I went 27 - 18, for +7.2 units, with a winning percentage of 60%. Not a super stellar year, but winning is winning.
I love the playoffs, but very rarely bet them. I'm happy with the amount I've won for this season, so I'll just be enjoying the playoffs as a fan. Of course, I will still be looking at the lines. As such, I think it's really interesting that the line on the KC - Indy game has moved all the way from Colts -2.5 to KC -1.5. That's a pretty big swing. I think the money is probably moving in the right way, as KC is getting some players back that will improve their ability to get after Luck (look for Luck to be pressured WAY more than in the Week 16 match-up). I still wouldn't trust real money on a Chiefs team that can be pretty inconsistent, and a Colts team that can beat the best (Seattle, Denver, SF, KC) and lose big as well (St. Louis, Arizona, etc.), is a tough sell, too. If I had to pick one side or total off the whole board, I'd probably take the under in this game.
All season we heard how bad the NFC East is and now that the Eagles finally won the war of attrition, they are -3 with the Saints visiting? We are taking this "Saints-can't-win-on-the-road" thing too seriously, perhaps? Or are the Eagles peaking at the right time? I'm really looking forward to this game, as I love watching horrible weather playoff football. I don't know which way to lean, though I'd give a slight edge to NO-- taking Brees with points is usually a good play.
The 49ers' ability to deal with the weather is another hot topic, even though they are posted as 3-point favorites on the road in Green Bay. Much has been made of the return of Aaron Rodgers, but the real story here is, I think, still that the Packer's D sucks. Bad. I don't think that, even with Cobb and Rodgers back, the Pack can score enough against the SF D to edge them out.
The Chargers shouldn't even be in the playoffs, and they shouldn't beat the Bengals, but it wouldn't surprise me. It's hard for teams to beat the same team twice in a season, though, and the Bengals are really good at screwing up a good thing. Still, I expect the Bengals to win, since they have the far superior D, but it is the playoffs.... just about anything can happen (which is why I tend not to bet on them).
NFL 2013 Season Total: 27 - 18, +7.2 units, 60% win %.
I love the playoffs, but very rarely bet them. I'm happy with the amount I've won for this season, so I'll just be enjoying the playoffs as a fan. Of course, I will still be looking at the lines. As such, I think it's really interesting that the line on the KC - Indy game has moved all the way from Colts -2.5 to KC -1.5. That's a pretty big swing. I think the money is probably moving in the right way, as KC is getting some players back that will improve their ability to get after Luck (look for Luck to be pressured WAY more than in the Week 16 match-up). I still wouldn't trust real money on a Chiefs team that can be pretty inconsistent, and a Colts team that can beat the best (Seattle, Denver, SF, KC) and lose big as well (St. Louis, Arizona, etc.), is a tough sell, too. If I had to pick one side or total off the whole board, I'd probably take the under in this game.
All season we heard how bad the NFC East is and now that the Eagles finally won the war of attrition, they are -3 with the Saints visiting? We are taking this "Saints-can't-win-on-the-road" thing too seriously, perhaps? Or are the Eagles peaking at the right time? I'm really looking forward to this game, as I love watching horrible weather playoff football. I don't know which way to lean, though I'd give a slight edge to NO-- taking Brees with points is usually a good play.
The 49ers' ability to deal with the weather is another hot topic, even though they are posted as 3-point favorites on the road in Green Bay. Much has been made of the return of Aaron Rodgers, but the real story here is, I think, still that the Packer's D sucks. Bad. I don't think that, even with Cobb and Rodgers back, the Pack can score enough against the SF D to edge them out.
The Chargers shouldn't even be in the playoffs, and they shouldn't beat the Bengals, but it wouldn't surprise me. It's hard for teams to beat the same team twice in a season, though, and the Bengals are really good at screwing up a good thing. Still, I expect the Bengals to win, since they have the far superior D, but it is the playoffs.... just about anything can happen (which is why I tend not to bet on them).
NFL 2013 Season Total: 27 - 18, +7.2 units, 60% win %.
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