Week 16 Picks

No Week 15 picks-- the board was pretty tight and I wasn't liking any of the plays.  Two weeks of record-setting offensive numbers just makes it hard to gauge how games are going to play out.  Plus, we are nearing the end of the season, and I wanted to protect my profits a bit.

I rarely play on the last weekend of the season, and very rarely play on playoff games, unless it's a play on the total.  So, my Week 16 picks are probably my last slate of full card picks (unless something too interesting comes up).  I really like this card, and feel I have a good chance at 3-2 or even 4-1.

I'll post my Week 15 Recap later this week, but wanted to lock in a few Week 16 picks while the lines are fresh.

I love that I can get New Orleans +3 1/2 at Carolina, and that is all thanks to the Saint's eating it on the road in St. Louis.  Classic look-ahead game; Brees and company will be ready for a contested divisional game and should play well.  I think they will win this game, and having a team that should probably be favored (even if on the road) as a 3 1/2 point dog is great.  New Orleans +3 1/2.

I'll take Cleveland +2 visiting the Jets as well.  Cleveland should have won this last week, but couldn't hold onto the ball.  They are the better team, and I don't the Jets should really be favored against anyone. Cleveland +2.

I always play double-digit divisional dogs, and I'll certainly take a 9-5 team +10 1/2, even if they are playing in Seattle.  The Seahawks look the part of the best team in the NFL, but I like Arizona to keep it close on the road in a tight divisional game at the end of the year.  Arizona +10 1/2.

Speaking of double digit divisional dogs, I'll take the Raiders this week as well, +10 at the Chargers.  The Chargers have looked the part of late, but again, late-season division games are always tricky.  The Chargers need this game to stay in the hunt, but this is really Oakland's playoff game-- they aren't going anywhere, but who on the Raider team doesn't want to all-but destroy Rivers' chance at the post-season?  Oakland +10.

The last game I'm taking is the Pats + 1 1/2.  Somehow, the Pats losing to a more-than-decent Miami team in a divisional game on the road means that Tom Brady all of sudden sucks?  Look back at the New England - Miami series over the last 10 years-- the Dolphins have always played the Pats tough, even in the worst years for the fish.  New England is just fine, and even without Gronk, should put away the defending Superbowl champs handily.  New England +1 1/2.

Week 14 Picks

I really wanted Cincinnati -3 this week as they host the Colts, but the line has been pushed up to -6.  This is a huge let-down game for the Colts-- last week, they more or less wrapped up the division (especially with 2 wins over the second place Titans who are playing at Denver this weekend), and are home again next week with a division game.  Cincinnati can deliver a huge blow to the rest of the division with a win at home against a struggling Colts team.  I like Cincy to win this one, but I have a feeling that this is a game won or lost on a FG.  I'd take my chances with the 3, but not on the 6.  Conversely, some books are showing Colts +6.5, and if that number gets to +7, I'll add a play on the Colts.  So this is something of a conditional play (though I don't expect to get the Colts +7, if I do, I'll pull the trigger).

I will play on Detroit - Philadelphia under the number this week.  Both teams are vying for a division title, and I think this game will be approached like a playoff game to some extent-- careful, not a lot of risk taking, and with an emphasis on trying to run the ball and play good defense.  Both teams have high-powered offenses (which is why the number is so high), but I expect that both teams will try to establish the run game to really contest the time and number of possessions.  I also like the improvements that the Philly defense has made.  Detroit - Philly UNDER 54.5.

I also like the Cowboys +1 on Monday Night.  They Cowboys actually play pretty well on the road, and I like how the Dallas offense matches up with the woeful Chicago defense.  Dallas's improving D should be able to keep the game close enough for a late rally if needed, and I like Romo to be able to move the ball at will late in the 4th quarter.  Dallas +1.

Week 13 Recap

I tried to get a little fancy this week and didn't take the strong trend plays on the Colts and the Texans (in the former, Andrew Luck is now 9-0 ATS following  a loss; in the latter, this season, teams with 15% or less of the money in Vegas are 11-3 ATS).  The Steelers pick cashed on a strong trend, but I gave it back with my play on the total in the Tennessee - Indy game.  They total was a decent enough play-- both teams were able to move the ball up and down the field, but couldn't cash it in the end zone (witness Vinatieri's monster 5 field goal day).  So, I ended up 1-1.

As we head down the stretch, a few things are coming to the fore.  Clearly, Seattle is a place no one wants to play in January.  I really thought the Saints would be more competitive in the Monday night game, but they were just bottled and throttled.  The most surprising aspect of this Seahawks team for me is Wilson-- I keep waiting for him to have a really bad game or make some really bad decisions in a key moment, like most 2nd year QBs tend to do.  Thus far, this guy has been poised and competent, and in a few games (like Monday), pretty brilliant.  Looking at the whole of the NFC, I still think New Orleans (despite the recent drubbing) is really the only team that could bust them in the mouth in Seattle.  I don't see the 49ers or the Cowboys being able to get that done.  In any case, so long as Seattle doesn't have some kind of colossal meltdown, it looks like to road to the NFC side of the Superbowl will go through the Pacific Northwest.

It's dangerous to underestimate how big the win at San Diego was for the Bengals-- that was a perfectly loseable game for the "Bungles", and one that in years passed they would have messed up somehow.  Getting a tough win on the road against a team that can be pretty decent was impressive and puts some distance in the AFC North race.

I keep waiting for Carolina to come back to earth-- I had a hunch that Tampa Bay might play them closer this past week, but they really didn't-- at all.  SF was a big winner in a divisional game I thought would be closer, too.  Denver, while looking fairly unstoppable on most drives on offense, has major defensive issues (what's new, right, Peyton Manning?).  The big difference between this Denver team and the Manning-led teams in Indy is that the Broncos actually have a run game and can usually play the run pretty tough defensively.  They just have a horrible, horrible secondary.

NFL 2013 Week 13: 1-1
NFL 2013 Season Total: 23-14

Week 13 Picks

Some Vegas weirdness-- the Pats opened up as 7 point road favorites against Houston, and with 99% of the money on the visitors, the line has only moved 1/2 a point.  That's a clear no-play for me-- I don't see how Houston is competitive in this game, expect that it seems that Vegas thinks so.  And I'm not betting against the house.  I am not, however, taking the opposite side.  I can't pull the trigger on Houston, no matter how much money Vegas is asking for on the Pats.

I'm taking the Steelers +3, for no reason other than this:  in the Big Ben - Flacco era, 9 of the 12 games in the series have been decided by 3 or fewer points, including 8 of the last 10 match-ups.    That's almost six seasons of generally close games.  I'm happy to take the three points, with a chance to win or push.  Steelers +3.

The other trend play would be on the Colts -4--  Andrew Luck is money ATS after a loss (now 8-0 ATS after a loss).  The Titans won dramatically on Sunday on the road, but still trail in the division.  Indy can put a killshot on Tennessee's divisional aspirations with a win at Lucas Oil Stadium, as the Titans still have games against Arizona and Denver.  Indy's defense is horrific, and I think they may well be in a hole early, and have to put the game on Luck's back. I think this may well be the week that Andrew Luck's ATS after a loss trend crashes instead of cashes.  I don't think Tennessee is the right play either.  I'd play on Indy at -3 (and was really, really hoping that I'd get it in the wake of the Arizona debacle), but the -4, I just don't know.  I do, however, like the over 44 1/2 in the Tennessee - Indianapolis game.  Indy's defense is horrific, and I think they may well be in a hole early, and have to put the game on Luck's back.  I think points will be scored; Indy is giving up over 32 points per game in their last five, and has been able to put up big numbers against divisional opponents this season.  Tennessee - Indianapolis OVER 44 1/2.

Two picks off a tough board-- I'd be thrilled to go 1-0-1 on this one.

Week 12 Recap

I had a pretty good week, going 3-1, but missing the perfect 4-0 by a point on the total play in the Dallas - New York game.  Those two early botched red zone possessions for the Giants really hurt, but I'll take a 3-1 mark any week.  The Jags - Texans game went exactly as I had expected, and the results on the side and total were never in doubt.  Though I'm happy I made those plays (playing the trend of double digits division dogs especially), I am kicking myself a little for not playing the sharp play on the Cards and the Falcons.  With the latter, I've been hosed a couple times on the Falcons that I missed the cover in the good spot.  Sometimes teams can really get in your head, and I think Atlanta is one of those teams for me this season, so I missed a good play there.

The Minnesota - Green Bay game was wild-- I very well could have lost that game in OT, after holding a ticket for the +5 dog up 23 - 7 at the beginning of the 4th quarter.  Green Bay nearly punched it in during the OT quarter, which would have blown the Minnesota play.  Crazy game.  People playing Minnesota on the moneyline must have just been sick-- just like the people enjoying their Denver -2 1/2 ticket at halftime on Sunday night.  Classic Manning - Brady-- huge comeback, dramatic game, with Peyton finally responding to tie the game at 31-all, but the Pats pulling out the stunner at home.  I'm so glad I wasn't on this game and could just enjoy it as pure sport.  

Things change so fast in the NFL-- KC was riding high, but the naysayers that have been riding next to the bandwagon all season were correct.  Now KC has lost 2 in a row, with a very real possible of making it 3, with this week's game against the Broncos.  They caught a break with the Denver loss, though, which takes the sting out of the divisional loss to SD somewhat.  

The Colts are clearly not the same team without Reggie Wayne.  It seems that the receivers can't ever be competent all at the same time.  If Fleener isn't dropping balls, Hilton is, and I don't think Heywood-Bey is the right fit for Indy.  Richardson can't get going, which is at least as much about the O-line as him (which is also why Luck isn't being protected enough).  There are some things to sort out in Indy, and for all the problems (solvable, mostly, going forward to next year), the biggest liability is the defense (shocking, I know, for a Colts squad).  There's a lot of upside for this young team, but better defense is going to have to be part of it.  Arizona just shelled them, not that it was terribly surprising.  I stayed off this game (somewhat ironically) because the Cards are a good team, if underrated.  The Colts usually play up to their opponents, and I thought they'd be more competitive.  

Carolina won again, a gritty game with a Dolphin squad that rarely wins but almost always plays it close.  This was a bad spot for Carolina-- an out of division game, before a huge divisional match-up, on the road, after a string of wings--- this is a hard, hard spot for any team.  Kudos to them for taking care of business and putting a little fear into the Saints.  

Don't look now, but the Steelers are tied for second in the division (with the defending Superbowl champs).  Cincinnati has a tough road test this week, heading out to San Diego, and the Steelers battle the Ravens.  The Bengals need a win to keep up their lead.  

NFL 2013 Week 12: 3-1
NFL 2013 Season Total: 22-13

Week 12 Picks

Each year, there's usually a team or two that feel very difficult to handicap.  I feel this way about the Colts, even though I'm 2-0 this season with Colts games.  There are a lot of reasons to pick Arizona -2 1/2 this week-- Arizona is still fairly underrated, being overshadowed greatly by the Seahawks and 49ers in the division, Bruce Arians is a good coach who is obviously very, very familiar with the Colts, the Cards have the #2 rushing defense in the NFL, and the Colts seem to be one of those young teams that plays either up to, or down to, their opponents (this is a squad that has beat Seattle, San Francisco and Denver, but lost to St. Louis, Miami, and San Diego, and barely eeked out a road win at Tennessee last week).  But is playing Arizona really playing "down"?  This is a solid football team.  I think Arizona is probably the correct play, but I just can't get over the nagging feeling that the Colts, with a long week, won't be underestimating their former coach's team.  This game is essentially a PK, as I bet this game is lost or won on a field goal.  If I could get Indianapolis +3, I'd take it.  But at 2 1/2, I'll pass.  

The other game I'd like to get +3 on is the Denver - NE game.  Tom Brady as a home underdog, after a loss, in a place where Manning has rarely played well.  At +2 1/2, it's a no play for me, not that it would surprise me for the Pats to win outright-- I just don't feel comfortable with the half point, so I'm staying off this game.

Back to the AFC South-- I'm playing on the Jags this week, +10, along with the under 43 1/2.  This is strictly a trend play; double digit divisional dogs are usually solid plays.  This has all the makings of a 17 - 9 kind of game, and I'll take the Jags to cover in a low-scoring affair.  The Texas still have the best passing defense in the league, but are actually giving up yards on the ground.  Both teams should be able to run the ball, and will elect to, since both have terrible QB situations.  This should play out as a clock-devouring, churning out yards via the run type, kick field goals kind of game.  Jacksonville +10, UNDER 43 1/2.

I've been burned on overs in NFC East games, but I'm going back for one more to make up a game.  I'll take over the 46 in the Cowboys - Giants match-up.  This is a play against the Cowboys D more than anything (giving up the most YPG than any other team).  With Eli starting to throw it around better, I will take the over (which has been pushed down due to the Giants' relatively low-scoring recent outings).  This number should probably be around 50 / 51, so I think there's some value in the number here.  Cowboys - Giants OVER 46.

I also like Minnesota to cover on the road against Green Bay.  AP is probable, and it's going to be cold.  I think the Vikings D has enough to pressure Tolzien into mistakes.  Minnesota has been more competitive in a lot of games than one would expect from a 2-win team.  I like the Vikes +5 on the road in a cold and bitter divisional game.  Minnesota +5.

Week 11 Recap

Andrew Luck is now 8-0 ATS after a loss, but that's the only good news to come from this week of picks. The total on the Philly - Washington game was a loser, and as soon as the red zone turnover happened, I knew it was a goner.  The Redskins didn't recover from that blunder psychologically until the 4th quarter, but it was too late then.  Philadelphia was up big most of the game, so just played to eat clock in the second half; had Washington been able to score instead of turn the ball over early, they would have been trying to score.  One play can really screw up total plays (it's sort of like playing the under and having a special teams or defensive score-- those almost always blow the under).

The Pats were the right play, even in a losing effort.  The call at the end was what it was-- really, the Pats should not have been in that situation.  I'm sure there are a lot of unhappy gamblers holding NE +3 tickets this morning.  Sometimes you have the right side and win, sometimes you have the right side and lose.

The other controversial call was the penalty against SF, negating a turnover that very likely could have changed the outcome of the game.  I thought hard about taking the 49ers with the 3 1/2 (which would have been a winner), but NO generally plays so well at home.  Still, the 49ers probably should have won this game, and were it not for that penalty, very well might have.  It was a good game to watch without having a ticket in hand, though.

The most anticipated game of the weekend was by far the undefeated Chiefs at the Broncos, with the 9-0 squad 8 1/2 point underdogs.  I heard a lot of chatter from a lot of smart bettors that there were fairly significant amounts of sharp money on the Broncos.  I found that interesting, since more than a TD favorites are seldom sharp plays.  In the end, the Broncos covered, but that game could have been closer, save a few plays.  The number went under (for the second week in a row, and only the second time all year for Denver).

The Giants won again, which sets them up for a possible run at the division.  I think the Eagles are the team to beat, and the Cowboys are hanging around, but the Giants could make a run.  Vegas certainly seems to think so-- the Cowboys, Eagles, and Giants are all 60:1 to win the Superbowl (and the other NFC East team, the Redskins, are even worse-- 150:1).  So, Vegas thinks the Giants have a better shot than the Redskins, and the same(-ish) chances of the division-leading Eagles.

NFL 2013 Week 10: 1-2
NFL 2013 Season Total: 19-12

Week 11 Picks

Three games this week, spanning Thursday night to the Monday Night game.  I like the Colts -2 1/2 to take care of business and put a stranglehold on the division.  Coming off an embarrassing, unfocused loss to an inferior Rams squad was a total "look ahead" moment that we often see in the NFL.  The Colts were more focused on the divisional match-up with the improved Titans, in Nashville.  They flat-out weren't up for the game last Sunday, and I have every reason to believe that Pagano will have his team ready to take it to the 2nd place team in the division.  Had Tennessee not lost to the lowly Jags, there would be more value here, but the severity of the loss on Sunday preserved enough for me to make a play on Indy.  Also, there's a strong trend here-- Andrew Luck is a perfect 7-0 ATS after a loss.  Indianapolis -2 1/2.

I like the over in the Philly - Washington game.  Washington hasn't been able to hold anyone but the Raiders under 20 points the entire season, and give up a lot of yardage to decent QBs (341 to Rivers, 351 to Peyton Manning, 385 to Stafford, 480 to Rodgers, etc).  Foles isn't quite in this league of QBs, but I look for him to have a 300 yard day.  Conversely, Washington is 5th in the league in yards per game, and I don't like Philly's defense to keep the passing game in particular in check (this a squad that gave up 280 yards to Scott Tolzien on Sunday).  Philadelphia - Washington over 52 1/2.

I'm going against the conventional wisdom of the week, and going with a solid trend.  Brady and Belichick after a bye.  Brady and Belichick as dogs (Tom Terrific is, since 2003, 17-7 ATS as an underdog).  I can still find +3 for the Pats and I'll take it.  I think Carolina is solid, but slightly overrated, and the Pats after a bye are usually money.  New England +3.

Week 10 Recap

A perfect 3-0 week, coming off the Monday Night game.  Tampa Bay looked solid for much of the first half, but gave up a TD on a brilliant Miami drive to close the half.  The Bucs played poorly in the 3rd, with Miami taking the lead.  Miami, however, could not run the ball and more importantly, couldn't stop the run, even with the bottom of Tampa RB bench.  I suspected Tampa would win, so sitting with the +3 all night felt pretty good.

I really liked the St. Louis pick, and it definitely cashed.  They made the Colts look like Pee-Wee football blooper reel, and dominated all three phases of the game.  I think I was right about it being a trap game; Indy just wasn't ready, and wasn't competitive.  I thought the Colts would be down in the game, and maybe come back to win by a field goal or late TD rally, but man, not so much.  They dodged a bullet, however, with Tennessee losing to the Jags, so they are still up 2 games in the division.  This actually sets up some value for Week 11, I think.  This one, was, however, and easy win-- I always fear the back-door cover / late rally from Luck, but this was a hole way too deep.

I'm especially proud of the getting the right call on the Denver - San Diego under.  After 8 straight overs for Denver, one finally came in under the number-- and by 10.5 points.  This one was a little more of a sweat, but it worked out in the end.  I actually figured it to be closer, and it very well easily could have been.  

Baltimore decided to make the AFC North a little more interesting and hand the Bengals their second consecutive loss in OT.  This had to be a deflating loss for Cincinnati, after the amazing rally to tie the game.  Mentally, the Bengals are a little banged up-- this is a team that should be 8-4, not 6-4 with Cleveland and Baltimore still hanging around.  I don't think the Bengals have much to worry about from Cleveland (which has been playing better, but somewhat overachieving I think), but Baltimore could get hot and make a run at them.  Cincinnati has a must-win this coming week against the Browns, before having to face the Chargers and the Colts.  If the Ravens can string together some wins here late, the December 29th Ravens - Bengals tilt in Cincy could be for a playoff berth.

The Cowboys took a beating from Brees and company all night Sunday.  The Dallas defense has been shuffling players due to injury all year, and it seems to finally have caught up with them.  Still, I expected this to be a closer game, but the offense couldn't pick up the slack.  They started the game running the ball well, which was an auspicious start for the 'Boys, since long, sustained, clock-eating drives are needed to limit the possessions of the explosive Saints offense at home.  Too quickly, though, they got in a big hole and had to abandon the game plan somewhat (and Rob Ryan's defense adjusted and closed up some of the holes in the run defense).  This was just one of those games where the Cowboys just couldn't get anything to happen.  This loss (with Philly's win at Green Bay [a game that most people--especially in the NFC East-- penciled in as a loss]), ties the division at a mediocre 5-5 each for the Eagles and Cowboys.  Washington is still in it, and amazingly, the Giants have now won 3 in a row to be 3-6.  Think about it-- on Sunday morning, Dallas was the top spot in the division, at 5-4, and the Giants were 2-6.  The Cowboys are on a bye next week, and the Giants have a winnable home game against the Rodgers-less Packers.  Then, the Giants get the Cowboys at home.  After the dust settles on these games, it's entirely conceivable that the Giants and the Cowboys could both be sitting at 5-6.  For Philly and Washington, this week's match-up is huge-- either of them could make a run at shoring up the division in the closing weeks, but they need this game.    

Seattle is a tough team to handicap-- every season there are teams that I can't seem to get a handle on and almost never bet.  It seems the Seahawks are always that team for me; some weeks they play close games, others, they blow out.  Their beatdown of the Falcons this week didn't really tell us much, other than confirming that the Falcons are really, really bad.  The NFC West is interesting, as it still seems unclear that SF is going to be able to challenge Seattle for the division.  The loss to Carolina looks on the face more about a maturing Carolina team that is enjoying great defensive play and more consistent QB leadership-- but, I'm not totally convinced.  I think the 49ers might be a bit overrated, and by extension, so might be Carolina.  Everyone is high on the Panthers right now, but I'm not sure I'm buying it just yet.

NFL 2013 Week 10: 3-0
NFL 2013 Season Total: 18-10

Week 10 Picks

Three games this week, which I think are exceptionally strong plays.  The first team I'm taking is the Rams to cover +10 at Indy; Indianapolis is coming off a dramatic late comeback road win against a division rival, and will be playing an inferior St. Louis team a week before they travel to second-place Tennessee.  This is a classic trap game, especially with Indy's perennially suspect run defense.  Zac Stacy should be able to help Kellen Clemens out by setting up short third downs.  Despite the loss to the Titans (a fairly decent squad), they played them close until the 4th quarter.  I like the Rams to cover and make this a closer game than expected.  St. Louis +10.

I am also taking the under 58.5 in the Denver - San Diego game.  Yes, Denver's defense sucks, especially in the secondary, and Manning seems to be able to throw TDs at will, but this is a huge number for a divisional game.  The Broncos have pushed the number over every game this season, but have only played one division game-- against the Raiders.  This is something of a must-win for both squads, with the Chiefs still 9-0; Denver doesn't want to fall another game behind, and San Diego needs this to stay alive down the stretch.  I think that these teams will play it a little more conservative, especially with John Fox out.  Denver should be able to pressure Rivers and disrupt the pass game, even if they can't cover the receivers.  If they can get any kind of pressure on him, he's prone to mistakes.  I think the under cashes this week for the first time, but barely.  Denver - San Diego under 58.5.

I also like Tampa Bay +3 at home against the Dolphins.  Tampa Bay is desperate for a win, and I like these mid- to late-season match ups, especially as home dogs.  The line opened at the Dolphins -3.5, and is down to -2 1/2 or -3 now.  The Bucs are an interesting 0-8 team, as they have actually been competitive in most of their games.  In fact, they've lost by 3 or fewer points 4 times-- to the Jets, Saints, Cardinals, and Seahawks. I suspect that this game will be won or lost on a late 4th quarter field goal, so taking the +3 team is a solid play.  It wouldn't surprise me in the least (especially with all the turmoil in Miami right now) if the Bucs get off the schneid this week on Monday Night Football (I also love underdogs on MNF).  Tampa Bay +3.

Week 9 Recap

A big card that was in the end, a loser.  I went 3-4 this week, though I should have been 4-3-- the Bears - Packers game went as expected, but with Aaron Rodgers getting injured, Seneca Wallace wasn't up to the task of pushing the number over.  That game had 34 - 27 written all over it, as the Bears moved up and down the field all night on the Packer's D.  That 9 minute, run-heavy drive in the fourth quarter was killer for the over, as the Bears were more than content to inch down the field and chew clock and settle for the field goal to go up 27 - 20.  That's why they call it gambling!

The other games were hit and miss.  The Pats blew the under without any help from the Steelers, and Philly hit the over without needing Oakland's contributions, as Foles went nuts.  The Falcons have packed it in; this is a game I really thought they'd be competitive in, but couldn't cover the +7.5 in a divisional game.  I did, however, get lucky to not push the total on the San Diego - Washington game, so 3-4 is better than 2-4-1 for the week.  And the Cincinnati thing; well, yeah.  That was a trap game and I totally missed it.

Speaking of trap games, there were three games that had a lot of chatter and a lot of sharp money.  The KC - Buffalo game was a huge sharp play this week, and the sharps had the right side and lost.  The Bills had gobs of offense, but couldn't handle the ball.  The Bills should have won this game out-right (and many smart bettors were all over this pick), but the inability to hold on the ball in key situations sent the Chiefs to 9-0.  I was off this game because of the QB situation, and I'm glad I did.  Still, Buffalo should have won this one.  Vegas killed the public on the Saints, another game I stayed off of-- I would have played the Jets around +9, but Vegas outwitted the public and had the Saints as a short favorite and built up a huge win with the Jets winning outright.  The Indy - Houston game was another one-- Indy had a lot of action as a short road favorite, especially since Houston has imploded.  The sharp play was the Texans, but I just can't go against Luck and his penchant for the late rally and cover.  And rally they did-- the script was perfect for Houston after the first half, but the Colts came back, in no small measure due to T. Y. Hilton getting over his butterfingers and looking like an elite receiver for the first time all season.  

How about those Cleveland Browns?  It's nice to see the Bengals and the Browns in the two top spots in that division, after so many years of dominance between the Steelers and Ravens.  The Browns and the Titans are quietly decent teams, along with Arizona.  There should be some value there in the weeks to come, in the right spots.  

NFL 2013 Week 9: 3-4
NFL 2013 Season Total: 15-10

Week 9 Picks

Road favorites are always dangerous, but I like Cincinnati tonight in the Thursday night game. Miami has been an underachieving team at home and an overachieving team on the road for years, at least ATS. They are in a tailspin, and the weird reports coming out of the Dolphins organization have to be a huge distraction. They are coming off a demoralizing loss at New England, and I just don't think this team has the leadership and experience to right the ship this week. The Bengals are in the driver's seat of the AFC North, and I look for them to put the pedal to the metal and really compete in this game. Cincinnati -3.

I'm also backing Atlanta +7 ½ in a divisional game. Atlanta hasn't been playing well at all, but divisional games are always closer than the public thinks. This is a pretty lopsided game too, with a 20-80% split in favor of Carolina. I'll side with Vegas on this one. Atlanta +7 ½.

I love double digit divisional dogs, so I'm all over Chicago +10 ½ on Monday Night Football. The line is high because of Cutler being sidelined, but McCown is competent and has the benefit of facing one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL. Chicago +10 ½.

 I am also playing three overs this week, which is odd, since I don't like to play over the number very often. However, these match-ups are just too good to pass up, and I think I could easily get two of the three. I like Foles to have a big game against the Raiders, and the Raiders will certainly benefit from Philly's woes in the secondary. I also like San Diego and Washington to put up points; the Redskins will likely see Rivers throw all over them, and they will be flinging it all night to catch up. And of course, an underrated back-up QB in Chicago will put up points on one of the worst secondaries in the league. Philly – Oakland OVER 45. San Diego – Washington OVER 51. Chicago – Green Bay OVER 50.

To round things off in the totals department, I like the Pittsburgh – New England under 44. New England's defense will be serviceable, and Pittsburgh (who has the #2 ranked pass defense in the NFL) will combine with NE's offensive woes to make this a slogfest. Pittsburgh – New England UNDER 44.

This is a huge card, but I think these are solid plays.

Week 8 Recap

This was a pretty wild week, to be sure. I went 2-1 for a profitable week that probably shouldn't have been. The Miami – New England game was looking bad for a long time, but that key third quarter turnover was huge for the Pats getting the cover. I was playing on the trend of Tom Brady at home after a loss, but the opposite trend was Miami (a good road team ATS, especially within the division). For a long time it looked like I was on the wrong side, and I should have probably lost this one. I lucked out, which makes up for the Bears pick two weeks ago (a game I lost but should have won).

The Cowboys made for an easy winner, and even the late game theatrics from the Lions didn't put the cover in doubt. I'm very glad I didn't take the under in that game, which got blown on that miracle touch down. The Giants – Eagles game... well, I just blew that one. Enough said.

We didn't learn too terribly much about too many teams this week, though. Green Bay's defense is terrible, the Jets are woefully inconsistent in all three phases of the game, Atlanta is in a tailspin, and Kansas City, though undefeated, looks vulnerable. And the Jags-- despite their decent showing against Denver-- are still the Jags.

NFL 2013 Week 8: 2-1
NFL 2013 Season Total: 12-6

Week 7 Recap

Week 7 Recap

I posted my Week 8 picks already; see below.

My one pick-- the Bears +1 at Washington-- lost, but the game went as I had thought. Lots of offense and poor defense. Unfortunately for my pick, the last TD with 45 seconds left put Washington up four. Sometimes you lose on the last play, even if you are on the right side. Cutler getting hurt didn't help, but really, McCown did a pretty good job. The Bears defense (which I've been saying all season is pretty awful) couldn't muster a stop. We'll get back on track this week.

The Colts got over their sloppy game in San Diego to ruin Manning's homecoming; in retrospect, the debacle with the Chargers was probably a “look-ahead” error in the preparation for a young team. They were ready to play-- the pressure they couldn't muster on Rivers they consistently applied to Manning. Good game, and the over hit (again). Denver's gone over the number in every game thus far. Denver is still a great offense, and a solid run defense, but that secondary is, week in and week out, unable to cover anyone.

Dallas's defense continues to surprise; they are playing more physical than most Cowboys stop units in past years. They abused both QBs, recording three sacks and knocking Foles out of the game, then picking off Barkley three times. Jerry Jones's squad looks to be the class of the NFC East, at least for now.

The KC-Houston game was a case of being late to the party. I looked for Houston to be a value play to cover in Week 6, but it was Week 7 where the Texans were able to regroup and get the cover in a losing effort. That franchise is a mess, and any hopes of staying with the Colts and a surprising Titans team are pretty much dashed, barring a colossal meltdown from the two better teams in the division.

Vegas cashed some serious money courtesy of Rex Ryan. I missed out on this one; I was looking for a bigger number on the Jets, as I love divisional dogs generally. Didn't need the big number, though, since Folk was clutch in OT to ice to Pats. This was great for this week's picks, though, as the Pats are great ATS after a divisional loss.

Of course, the comeback stories are the Steelers and the Giants. The Steelers got a big emotional win over a division rival, and the Giants got off the slide and avoided going 0-7 (albeit against a terrible Minnesota team). Freeman. Yeah, right.

NFL 2013 Week 7: 0-1
NFL 2013 Season Total: 10-5

Week 8 Picks

I'm posting up my picks ahead of my Week 7 Recap as I want to lock in a few key numbers while still available. This board is a little more playable than last week (I had only one pick, which lost, despite going down to the wire).

Despite Miami almost always playing the Pats tough, I'm going with the Pats -6 ½. They will be playing angry after the loss to the Jets (the team they hate losing to more than any other, with the possible exception of the Giants). I think the Pats will be up for this game, and will take out their frustration on a Dolphin team on the slide.  Pats -6 1/2.

I like the Giants and Eagles over. I don't play a lot of overs, but this has historically been a series where the number is high. Coming off a woeful offensive performance against an under-rated Cowboys D, I look for the Eagles to put up points against an improving (but not elite) Giants defense. Yes, they shut out the Vikings offense (the lone touchdown was a special teams play in the Monday night game), and shut down the reigning MVP on the ground. However, the only reason they were able to hold AP to 28 yards rushing was the lack of any passing threat from Freeman. They won't be able to stuff the box against the Eagles, and the Eagles running game should gash them, especially late in the game, and open up opportunities for big plays down the field. The Eagles defense isn't great either, and Eli (who has been... well, better, if not good) and his slowly improving receiving corps should be able to wing it at will. I like this to be a shootout. Giants/Eagles over 53.

I also like the Cowboys as road dogs. This is a squad that has very often played better on the road than at home. Detroit isn't a great team, and I love getting the +3 ½ that is fastly disappearing off the boards. Dallas +3 ½.

Week 7 Picks

This week the lines are pretty tight. I don't see a lot of value plays-- the board looks (to my eyes at least) to be a lot of coin flips. The money is pretty even, too; with only a scant few exceptions, the money bet is pretty evenly split across the board (the Pats-Jets, Cowboys-Eagles, and 49ers-Titans tilts are the only one-sided match-ups this week). Smart bettors don't play coin flips.

My hunch is that Vegas will go 2-1 on the aforementioned lopsided games, but I can't really get a good read on which ones are most likely to cash. Tom Brady as a short favorite on the road is usually a good play, and given the resurgence of the Pats offense the public at least looks for New England to cover. Wait. Oh yeah, injuries. The Pats are again without Amendola, and most importantly, Mayo, Wilfork and Talib (who has been outstanding this year). Even with Talib (who has really been something of a one-man secondary this year, and probably the most significant injury), the Pats have surrendered an ungodly amount of passing yards to date. Gronk has been cleared to play, though. On the other side, you have a stout defense, but an offense led by a rookie QB that has been up and down. Like I said, coin flip, but with Vegas on the Jets.

The public is also backing the Cowboys to cover as 3 point dogs. This is pretty dangerous, as Nick Foles has played very well, and is likely fighting for the starting gig. Dallas is without DeMarco Murray, which is significant. This could be something of a shootout (Vegas is expecting this, as the total is around 56-- a lot of points). Usually I like unders in divisional games, but the NFC East has generally been a division where that's not always a smart play (the last time Foles started against Dallas, there were over 70 scored). I don't trust either defense to keep the number under the total, nor do I like a side in this. It will be interesting to watch though-- I'm particularly interested in seeing if the 'Boys can stop the top-ranked rushing attack with their horrible run defense (ranked 25^th in the league).

The Titans have played pretty well; even the games they've lost they've almost always been competitive. San Francisco has been up and down; they got the cover last week (unfortunately for those of us looking for the Cards to cover), but haven't been the dominant team so many expected at the beginning of the season. I just don't think I can join Vegas in backing the Titans here. Another coin flip.

So where is the value? Not too easy to find. I do, however, like Chicago +1 at Washington. Washington's sputtering offense may have a hard time keeping up with Chicago's, which has played pretty well. Chicago can score points, posting over 20 points in every game but the Saint's game. The Washington defense will have its hands full, and I look for Shanahan's squad to be 1-5 at the end of this one. The wild card here is the Bears' defense, which has allowed 21 or more points in every game. Still, I like Cutler and company to keep pace and edge out RG3 in a shootout. Chicago +1.

Week 6 Recap

Not a great week; I gave back a game, going 1-2 for the week.  The Giants made for an easy winner on Thursday night, as that game went pretty much how I thought it would.  The Giants offense slowed in the second half, but so did Chicago's, so the +8 was a nice cushion to be sure. 

The Arizona – San Francisco game I actually had handicapped pretty well; Arizona was competitive for most of that game, but gave up the cover by one point on a late 4^th quarter field goal. Such is gambling-- and really, this is why you have to take a long view on all of this. Over the course of a season, you are going to get boned on the backdoor cover in the 4^th quarter and lose a game you should have won, but similarly, you are going to make a bad pick that gets bailed out at the last minute too. If the bets are based on good data, trends, and smart analysis of line movements, these games will even out over the whole of a season. I think this is where most people get into trouble-- not managing the bankroll and chasing wins or making multiple unit picks to make up ground. Slow and steady wins the race in this one.

Speaking of making smart plays, boy did I read the Houston game all wrong. That organization seemed to descend into complete disarray this week, which I didn't see coming. I really thought they would pull it together, but the errors and miscues were just too much. Houston actually put up way more yards-- 420 to the Rams' 216, and had more first downs (27 – 15), but the four turnovers and a really efficient performance from Sam Bradford and company created the lopsided score. I'm not sure what Houston is going to do from here, especially with the Schaub injury (at which point we found out who the most classless legion of fans in the NFL are this year).

I'm actually happy with 1-2 this week, because had I been a little more trigger-happy, I would have lost on the Tampa – Philly game too. Vegas had something brewing on that one, and generally I like those plays. I stayed off because the line really didn't move in favor of TB (Vegas was getting greedy), and I had a hunch that the linesmakers were undervaluing Nick Foles. And, yeah, they totally did. Vegas got hammered on this game, because everyone and their Mom was all over the Eagles, and Foles had a monster day (22-31, for 296, 3 TD's and no picks). Tampa was competitive, but the Eagles put them away for good late on some smart plays by Foles.

Tom Terrific put on a clinic in fourth quarter comebacks, though as much as that game was about Brady in the clutch, the other story is about clock management and conservative play calling late in games. It seemed as if the Saints really didn't think the Pats offense was capable of something like that (and certainly, for most of this season, that has been true), or they would have had a little more creativity in the play calling late. Of course, if they Pats lose that game, everyone is second guessing Belichick's decision to go for it on 4^th down. Either way, it was a pretty dramatic game, and one of the better ones of the weekend.

On the other end of the entertainment spectrum, I would wager most of the East Coast clicked off the Monday Night game somewhere in the third quarter of that field goal extravaganza. The Colts couldn't get any pressure on Rivers, but the Charger's couldn't do anything in the red zone, even as they seemed to march down the field with ease. The dropped passes really hurt the Colts, as most of them came on 3^rd down plays. This game had potential to be a fun, back-and-forth affair, but devolved into one of the most snooze-worthy games of the year.

And congratulations to the Jacksonville Jaguars-- they get their first ATS win, covering one of the largest spreads in the modern era. Surprisingly, the Jags were within 2 points midway through the 3^rd quarter before Denver pulled away. Illustrative of the point I've been reiterating all season, that the good teams are never as good as they seem, and the bad ones never as bad as they seem. I wasn't convinced this was still true with Jacksonville this year though-- they have been really, really bad. Unusually bad. But they did get the cover, so good for them (even if they are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS).

NFL 2013 Week 6: 1-2
NFL 2013 Season Total: 10-4

Week 6 Picks

Week 6 is here already; kind of hard to believe, actually.  But the meat of the schedule is upon us, and now we know a little more about the teams and races.

I would be remiss were I not to mention the record being set in the Jacksonville - Denver game.  The line opened up at Denver -28, a new record.  It's around 27 1/2 at most books now.  This is an incredible spread; I still don't even want to contemplate taking Jacksonville, but it's a lot of points.  This looks like a Week 2 college spread when an SEC powerhouse plays a directional school, not an NFL spread.  Good luck to those trying to figure this one out; on one hand, Jacksonville does seem to be really, really bad.  And Denver looks great.  There are just too many ways this could go bad either way, though.

I love the Giants +8 on Thursday night football.  Thankfully, Nick Foles was great when he came in for Vick in Sunday's game and Philly was able to fend off a possible comeback from the G-Men; if the Giants had gotten their first W, the line value wouldn't be as good as it is here.  I think the Giants have a good shot to win this game; the offensive is actually starting to come together.  They can't stop anyone, but the Bears' defense isn't that great either.  I look for this to be a shoot-out, and +8 is a great number to have when you are trading TDs all night.  G-men +8.

Let's talk weird Vegas numbers for a moment.  The line on the Philly - TB game opened up with the Bucs as short (+1.5) road dogs.  92% of the money is on Philly, and the line hasn't budged.  This is exactly what happened midweek with Cincy and NE last week, and the Miami - Atlanta game a few weeks back.  I can't tell, however, if this is because the books are underestimating Foles or they know something we don't.  It seems like a lot of risk to expose yourself to if you aren't sure.  This is one to keep an eye on; I'm not ready to pull the trigger on it, but I look for the tourist money to pour on Philly Saturday and Sunday morning.  They may adjust the line up a bit, which would be the time to play on the Bucs.

I like Arizona this week as well, as double digit road dogs in a divisional game.  Arizona is more competent than most people think, and they usually play SF pretty tough, even in the Bay Area.  I especially love that the 49ers are coming off of a huge blowout win over what was thought to be a formidable opponent in the Texans. Cards +11.

Speaking of the Texans, wither Matt Schaub?  Granted, he's made some bad throws and looked pretty awful a few times, but the guy is still talented.  But the circus around him has gotten crazy-- the guy showing up at his house, Kubiak's lukewarm endorsement, etc.  Reports are, though, that he still has the support of the team.  The lockeroom politics are important, and I look for Houston-- and Schaub-- to bounce back and cover the touchdown at home against a pretty crappy Rams teams.  Texans -7.

Week 5 Recap

The Monday night game capped off a perfect 4-0 weekend, which was a really nice way bounce back from dropping two games the previous week.  I felt pretty good about picking a double-digit dog on Monday Night Football (historically a pretty high-value play), but was pretty surprised with how the Jets (and Geno Smith in particular) were able to bounce back from last week's debacle.  Atlanta is a hot mess, to say the least, though if they could just get their red zone offense figured out, they could be decent.  The thing that makes Atlanta such an interesting storyline is how deep they are buried in the division-- do they fold and pack it up, or try to reel off wins in hopes something crazy happening and looking at a wild card (the odds are way, way, long on that one, now that it seems Jones may be out for most or all of rest of the season). 

Chicago got exposed; the defense ain't your Grandpa's Chicago D.  Though the offense has improved, it's not good enough to hang with a team like the Saints-- and had it not been for some red zone miscues for New Orleans, this game could have been a huge blowout. 

The NFC East continues to be the soap opera of the NFL.  The winless Giants, the Romo INT, health worries for RG III, and the whole Philly experiment.  The Giants' offense woke up a bit in this game, but Philly's secret weapon got to come in when Vick went out-- Nick Foles was very, very good.  I actually think, given Vick's age and tendency to be hurt a third of the season, the Eagles should concentrate on bringing Foles along in that offense.  With those weapons, he could be really effective in a Chip Kelly offense. 

I'm going to stop calling the Colts over-rated-- the clutch, gritty win at home over Seattle (the first SU and ATS loss for the Seahawks of the year) was pretty impressive.  With the apparent meltdown of the reigning AFC South champs, they look good to take the division and go back to the playoffs.

Arizona is slightly under-rated, I think.  The defense is playing well and they are a bit under the radar.  I don't think that they are good, per se, but they aren't terrible.  Bruce Arians is a good coach, and they seem to be coming along. 

NFL 2013 Week 5: 4-0
NFL 2013 Season Total: 9-2

Week 5 Extra Pick

Off of breaking news that Megatron is out for today's game.  Not having to account for Calvin Johnson is a godsend for a terrible Green Bay secondary.  The total on this game was already sky high, since Green Bay hasn't been able to cover anyone this season.  Coming off the bye, which they certainly spent some time working hard on the defensive side of the ball and in the secondary especially, combined with CJ being out, I like the under 55.  Got it locked in, and now looking at the number fall (already at 54 in some books).  GB / DET Under 55 is the play!

Week 5 Picks

This is a tough week; these lines are pretty tight.  The traditional value play would indicate Jacksonville with a ton of points against a team that is 1-4 ATS and 1-4 SU, but I can't lay money with Jacksonville no matter who they are playing against.  It wouldn't surprise me at all if they covered, but I can't bring myself to pull the trigger on that one.

The Saints are an interesting play this week; they've lost something like 11 in a row at Soldier Field.  I think today is the day the streak ends; the Bears D isn't what it used to be, and if it comes down to a shoot out between the recently improved Bears offense and Brees-Sproles-Graham-Colston and company, I'll lay a point with the latter.  New Orleans -1 is the play-- this is the day the streak dies.  Looking at Chicago, they've had close wins over middling teams, and a big win against a reeling Steelers squad.  I think they get exposed here and drop 2 in a row.

I also like Oakland in the divisional match-up with the Chargers.  The Charger's secondary is terrible, and Pryor is surprisingly competent.  Oakland +5.

I love double digit dogs on Monday Night Football.  Yes, the Jets aren't as good as their record indicated, but I'm playing a trend here.  Jets +10. 

Week 4 Recap

After a good 5-0 start to the season, I suppose I was due to give a little back.  I dropped both picks, though I was very glad the line on Jacksonville - Colts game didn't get higher on Sunday, else I would dropped that one too, had I played it. 

So what went wrong?  I pulled the trigger on the Steelers too early.  There will be some value in Pittsburgh at some point, and I just was too quick on them-- I should have had some patience, as Week 4 is their bye, and Week 5 they play the Jets.  If the Jets win this week and go 3-2 (a hard sell since they travel to a reeling and desperate Falcons team), there could be value in that line with Pittsburgh as a serious dog.  In reality, Pittsburgh won't be a solid dog play until a divisional game.  I really thought they'd be more poised at Wembley, but I was just wrong.

The Atlanta game was a little maddening to watch-- though, with some of the coaching calls being made on the Falcon's sideline, it wouldn't have surprised me if Smith would have went for two to win the game had Matty Ice converted the 4th down play for a TD (which would have meant Atlanta wouldn't have covered the 1 1/2).  I underestimated how much better the Pats' secondary has gotten, and how much strides have been made offensively.  Not taking the points with Brady is always risky, and I just flat out had this one called wrong. 

The Colts - Jacksonville game was interesting to see unfold-- is it possible that the Jags really are this bad?  They are now 0-4 ATS and SU, and have scored 31 points this entire season (to put it in perspective, Denver scored 35 points by the 6:37 mark in the 3rd quarter of Week 1).  They've also given up 129 points this season. 

Baltimore seems to be all over the place, though it seems Buffalo was something of a trap game for them, coming between Houston and Miami.  The Giants are a mess-- actually the whole NFC East is pretty shaky.  Seattle's dramatic come-from-behind win was one of those games that makes the NFL so fun to watch (though if I had put down on that one, it would probably be another story).


 

NFL Picks, Week 4

I'm taking the Falcons as short (-1 1/2) home favorites over the visiting Patriots.  This is actually a great spot for Atlanta; they are usually very good at home, and very good following a road loss.  The perception of this team took a huge hit in not being able to pull out the win at Miami, who is looking more and more like a legit team.  The Patriots beat down a very distracted (and possibly imploding) Tampa Bay team with an offensive showing that wasn't terribly impressive considering the defensive woes and drama that the Bucs are dealing with.  The New England offense will continue to get better, but I don't think they are enough in sync to go into the Georgia Dome and win.   

Though it may come as a surprise, I'm also taking the Steelers as one point favorites.  There are a number of reasons I'm pulling the trigger on the Steelers to stop their free fall this week.  First, despite the final score, the Steelers were in the Sunday night game at the beginning of the 4th quarter.  They were within 4, but a series of miscues led to the lopsided score.  That has to sting to choke so bad and go 0-3 in front of the home crowd on a national stage.  The Steelers have too much experience and too much pride to implode; I think they will be fired up for this game.  I also think the venue is huge; the Steelers will take on the Vikings in London at Wembley stadium.  The knock on Pittsburgh has generally been that they are old-- but with age comes experience, and I think the veteran professionalism will help them deal with the travel.  The Minnesota defense is the worst unit the Steelers will have faced yet, and that should be enough to get Tomlin his much-needed first win of the season. 

I considered heavily taking Jacksonville to cover as home dogs against division rival Indianapolis.  I thought the line might be bigger with the Colts coming off a huge win San Francisco, but it's sitting at 8 1/2 to 9.  I think, however, that as the weekend approaches, more money may come in on Indy's side and could push it higher.  I'd consider a play at +10 1/2, but I'm not sure if there's enough interest in this game to push the line that high this week.  Check back on Sunday morning, as if it gets to more than 10, I might pull the trigger on that one.  Now, why would I lay money with the worst team in football?  Divisional match ups, of course.  Historically, divisional double digit dogs-- the 4 D's-- are good, solid, high percentage plays.  Bad teams know enough about the good teams in their own division to play them a little closer and tougher than the public expects, so the lines gets skewed on perception versus the reality on the field.  This is especially true with the Jags and Colts; Jacksonville has always played the Colts tough, even in the best of the Manning years.  The reality is, however, Jacksonville is just dreadful.  I am not comfortable picking them +9, and am even nervous at +10 1/2.  But we'll watch the line and see what happens Sunday morning.

My two picks for Week 4:

Atlanta -1 1/2
Pittsburgh -1

Week 3 Recap

Week 3 turned out to be a pretty chill affair; there were not a lot of tense moments watching the three games I picked this week.  Baltimore was in total control most of the game, San Diego's +3 1/2 wasn't in doubt (as the Chargers' ineffective secondary and the late touchdown didn't put the cover in doubt), and save for one late drive that could have put the under in the Philly-KC game in jeopardy, the pick looked solid throughout.  In all, it was a pretty rare and beautiful thing-- going 3-for-3 without the late fourth quarter panic is always great.

That being said, I did somewhat regret not playing the Atlanta - Miami game; that one was tight and went to the finish, but Vegas cashed a big, big ticket on that one.  As I wrote last week, the line looked like the books were begging for money on Atlanta, which they got.  I usually love to play those games, but I had a feeling that Miami might have been over-valued coming off the road win in Indy.  Of course, after the Colts went to San Francisco and punched the Niners in the teeth, the Dolphins' win at Lucas Oil Stadium looks even more impressive.  In any case, that was a big win for the books-- that game and the Green Bay game were big winners for the house.

The emergent story lines are always interesting in the NFL-- it's what makes the season and the sport in general so compelling.  The woes of the Giants and Steelers are something to watch, especially since there is most likely going to be value at some point in these teams as underdogs. The Miami - New Orleans game is going to tell us something about Miami for sure; as big a win as that was for the Dolphins, the Falcons are a team that very often plays poorly on the road.  If they can win or at least make it close, they might be the team to beat in that division.  I'm also looking at how SF rebounds after a divisional beatdown and a very ugly home loss to a young Colts team (well, most of the team is young, but a large amount of the credit goes to veteran Ahmad Bradshaw for controlling the game late with an impressive performance).  Week 4 has historically been a pivotal week; four games into the season, we start to get a picture of where the teams are at, and what possibilities lie ahead. 

NFL 2013 Week 3: 3-0
NFL 2013 Season Total: 5-0

NFL Picks, Week 3

There are a lot of interesting games this week, and the lines seem very tight; there are only two divisional match-ups, which I always look at hard (divisional games are usually tighter than people think, so there are usually good plays to be made in these match-ups). 

The Atlanta - Miami game is really interesting; Miami is a small favorite to a team that almost made it to the Superbowl last year.  Miami has been playing better this year, and is coming off two road wins.  However, over the last few years, Miami has actually been better on the road, especially ATS, and has laid all kinds of nasty eggs at home.  On the other side, Atlanta has not historically been good on the road-- outside the confines of Georgia Dome, Matty Ice can be very, very cold.  Injuries have beset the Falcons as well.  I do think that Miami is slightly over-rated, coming off of a win on the road against an over-rated Colts team.  The public is backing Atlanta, 87% - 13%, which always makes me nervous.  I'm going to stay off this game because I never want to be against Vegas when the bets are so one-sided, and on the other side, I think the lines makers are over-valuing the Dolphins.

I also generally love to play dogs of over two touchdowns-- these have generally been solid plays in the past.  But I really can't make a case for Jacksonville being able to do anything against that outstanding Seattle defense.  I do, however, worry about a let-down after the SF drubbing, which was the biggest game for the Seahawks in this half of the season. 

So where is there value?  I think the Ravens are a good play this week.  After an opening loss at Denver, and a hard-fought skin-of-the-teeth divisional win against Cleveland, Baltimore will be sharper against Houston.  There's also the issue of the absolute drubbing that the Texans put on the Ravens last October in Houston-- embarrassing loss for Baltimore to be sure.  I think revenge will play into the motivation for the Ravens squad, as will the specter of going 1-2 in front of the home crowd.  Houston is also coming off of two games where they needed to go to the wire to pull out the wins; add the travel to that and you might see a gassed Texans squad show up.  I like the Ravens as home dogs + 2 1/2.

The Andy Reid homecoming circus is upon us; the Chiefs have seemed for the last few years just a bit of solid QB play away from being decent.  Alex Smith has been good thus far; the Eagles' newly re-vamped offense is an interesting wildcard here.  The Eagles defense looks pretty bad, especially in the secondary.  I expect this to be a tight game, but the emotional aspect of it makes it a dangerous play.  What I do like in this game is the total-- given Philly's bad clock management and the defense getting wore out in the first two games, I look for Chip Kelly to try to slow things down a little, especially since McCoy is running well.  If they can run the ball against the Cheifs, they can keep their offense on the field longer (or, more importantly, their defense OFF the field).  This translates to fewer possessions and fewer opportunities to score.  The KC defense isn't terrible, and should be able to play fairly well against Philly.  I will lock this one in at UNDER 51.

As I wrote in my Week 2 Recap, I was disappointed with the results of the Houston / Tennessee game and the Chargers / Eagles game--  if Titans had been able to pull it out and not collapse and the Eagles had better clock management from the coaching staff, there'd be incredible value in this line.  However, I still think SD +3 1/2 is a solid play.  The Chargers have always been solid playing in the east, and I think the Titans are overvalued here (they beat the Steelers, which has proven a rather shallow win, and they got beat in a competitive divisional game by a Houston team that isn't playing particularly well compared to last year). 

So, to recap, my three Week 3 picks are:

Baltimore +2 1/2
UNDER 51 in the Kansas City / Philadelphia game
San Diego + 3 1/2

Week 2 Recap

It was a pretty relaxing weekend, since my only play was on the Thursday night game, and even better since I got to cash that ticket with the Jets.  New England's offensive woes continued, and a decent Jets D held on to cover.

Some interesting games this weekend--  Miami and KC have made some strides this year, especially the former.  Miami has been over the last year or two one of those teams that seems to hang around in games but can't pull it out (sort of like Tampa Bay this year).  Maybe the Dolphins are getting over that hump?  The line on the Atlanta / Miami game is interesting-- Vegas is giving a lot of credit to Miami after their road win at Indy, but I wonder if that's just because the Colts are a bit over-rated at the moment (the running game isn't working, and they have the same defensive problems they've had for about 15 years...)  In any case, these teams are much improved; KC at Philly is set up to be an interesting watch with the whole Andy Reid homecoming madness.

The Giants got shelled by Denver in the most recent incarnation of the Manning Bowl; Coughlin's squad is a short underdog this week visiting a winless Carolina squad.  The Giants tend to be a team that very often gets off to a slow start and then settles down a bit, I'm just not sure this is the week to pull the trigger on backing them. 

I was really rooting for Philly to beat the Chargers and for Tennessee to pull out the win against Houston.  The Chargers are historically very good ATS on the road, and if the Chargers lost and Tennessee won, there would be a lot of value in the Chargers traveling to the Titans this week.  Alas, this did not work.  I was hoping to be able to get the Chargers around +6 this week, but the line is sitting at +3.5 at the moment, with most of the money coming in on SD.  Best laid plans, indeed.

 How bad is Green Bay in coverage?  Bad.  Granted, they were in total control of that game almost wire-to-wire, but the Washington offense was shooting itself in the foot much of the time.  Despite this, the Redskins still had a 100-yard day from Morris and a tenative, often indecisive RG III still registered 320 passing yards and 3 TDs.   I don't know when the GB defensive works things out, but between their dismal play and Rodger's playing his brains out, I expect most of their games to resemble shoot outs.

There's a lot of negativity about the defending champs out there; so much so that they are now short underdogs at home versus Houston.  The Cleveland game was a slugfest, but divisional games are often like this, even against a perennial doormat like the Browns.  I don't think Baltimore is as bad as advertised, or at least, we don't have enough data just yet.  This weekend will tell a lot.

In all, things are going well.  I'll have my Week 3 picks up soon.

NFL 2013 Week 2: 1-0
NFL 2013 Season Total: 2-0

45 minutes to kick-off...

The line has come down a full point since I locked in my +12 1/2, with most books having +11 1/2 now (even seeing a few +11).  The money has evened out in favor of the Jets (now about 60% - 40% NE - NYJ).  Looks good.  You have to love having the better number when the line starts to correct!

NFL Picks, Week 2

As I stated in my first post, I tend to not play too many games, especially at the beginning of the year.  As with last week, I'm only getting on one game.  The lines seem pretty tight, and thus I will be sitting and watching most of the games this week.

I am, however, ready to pull the trigger on my one and only pick:  I'm taking the Jets in the Thursday night match-up with the Pats.

Yes, we all know the Jets suck, and rookie QBs have generally been cannon fodder for New England.  This is not, however, your father's Pats squad.  Their offense is banged up and not incredibly in sync.  Amendola is doubtful, and back-up RB Stevan Ridley is now on the injury report as well.  They are depleted, to say the least.

The biggest reason I'm taking the Jets, though, is that it is a divisional game, and divisional games are vastly more often a lot tighter than expected, owing to the teams' familiarity with one another.  With rare exceptions, double digit dogs are very solid plays in divisional games.  That's why I'm locking in now with the Jets still available at +12 1/2 from a few windows (the line at most shops has moved down to an even 12, showing some movement in favor of a Jets cover).  A bet with the Jets is also a bet with Vegas, since 86% of the money is coming in on the Pats. 

I don't expect this to be a high scoring affair, and I'm looking for the Jets to do just enough to edge out the cover. Bad teams covering against supposedly good teams is where Vegas makes its money in football; I'd rather be on their side on this one.

Week 1 Recap

It's always nice to be able to rack up a win the first week, especially in a week where you only play one game.  San Diego let a huge lead slip away from them in the second half, but their 28-7 3rd quarter lead was enough padding to not have to sweat the 4 1/2 too much. 

As always, Week 1 presented some surprises and confirmed some suspicions.  It seems like over the past few years, a lot of people have expected Kansas City to get better, and this year they might (finally) have a chance of living up to that.  Granted, they were playing a horrible team, but I'm not sure many people would have called that final score regardless. 

The NFC East should be a decent watch this year-- despite the Eagles' shiny new offense, I'm not convinced that any team in this division is that good.  I imagine the division will be in play till the very end, since none of these teams really have it to run away with it by early December.  The power in the NFC has certainly shifted west-ward, with SF looking pretty impressive and Seattle sporting that stout defense.  Arizona should be decent as well-- while I certainly don't think the Cardinals will be challenging for the division, they will likely put up a fight and make some games closer than many would expect. 

The NFC North could also be tight; Green Bay's pass defense is just awful, and has been for some time.  Their early season offensive kinks historically get worked out over the first few weeks, but they've been able to do nothing about their shoddy coverage in the secondary for years.  It'll be good drama to see if either Chicago or Detroit can come together enough to challenge for the division.

And what of the Steelers? It will be interesting to see what unfolds in Pittsburgh and the rest of the AFC North (which went 0-4 in Week 1).


2013 NFL Week 1:  1-0
2013 NFL Season Total:  1-0

2013 NFL Picks, Week 1

Week 1

One of the things I tend to follow closely is the line movements and the money in Vegas.  The sports books are often willing to take a gamble (the more conspiracy-minded among us would contend that they often have information not available to everyone else), in that they will move the line cautiously or not at all, even when money is pouring down unevenly on one side (the classic business model for sports books is to move the line to even out the money and take the 10%).  

This is one reason why I like San Diego to cover the modest spread when hosting Houston this Monday night.  The line opened with the Texans as 3 1/2 point favorites, and despite almost 80% of the money coming in for Houston, the line has moved only modestly.  The line may move a bit more, but there is value at the +4 1/2 you can get in Vegas right now. 

The public's perception is also important; Vegas banks on the casual bettor over-valuing good teams and underestimating bad teams.  The books make a lot of money factoring this into the line and the movements.  Good teams in the NFL are rarely as great as perceived by the public, and bad teams are rarely as bad as everyone thinks.  There is, in fact, more parity than most of us think (and the numbers bear this out, if you look at ATS records).  As such, I tend to look hard at match-ups of teams that are considered "good" and "bad".  The Texans - Chargers tilt is a good example.  Coming of a strong AFC-South championship year, the Texans have moved up the public rankings, despite getting throttled by New England 41 - 28 in last year's divisional round.  For years, San Diego has struggled early in the year, and some of their most talented and complete teams still found ways to lose in September and October.  The team has been somewhat retooled, which always adds to the perception of mediocrity.  The Chargers had a fairly unremarkable preseason, in which Rivers and his receiving corps looked at times, flat or even just plain bad.  The final nail in the coffin was the thrashing the Bolts took at the hands of the 49ers in their last preseason game-- brutal.

This is all to say that the public's perception of San Diego is overwhelmingly negative, and probably more negative than it should be.  Conversely, the Houston Texans are overvalued in this situation (not to mention they are crossing two time zones to play a very late 9:20pm Central time West Coast kick off).  I am, of course, not saying in any way that San Diego is a good team.  It wouldn't surprise me if they have a decent season, given the talent they have, but I don't think they will be "good".  In this situation, I do think there is a good chance of them being "good enough" to cover the spread against an over-rated Houston team that will likely be looking ahead to their next 4 games (divisional game versus Tennessee, then Baltimore, Seattle, and San Francisco).

My ONLY Week 1 Pick:  San Diego + 4 1/2

NFL 2013 - 2014 is here!

Finally, after the football-less spring and summer, and the interminable preseason, the NFL kicks off tonight.  Most of America couldn't be happier...

I'm starting this blog to post up my picks for the year.  I'm not a tout or a self-affirmed savant, just a guy who's learned a few things about betting the NFL after some really, really good seasons, and a few pretty rough ones.  I'm going to put up my picks for fun and discussion, going on record on-line and such.  Again, I'm not selling anything (touts in general are the fastest way to blow your bankroll), this is just for kicks.  And hey, who doesn't love to get flamed on-line after a week you go 1-4 or something?

Just a few things about me:  I'm pretty risk-adverse.  I don't take big favorites, generally, and I don't bet a lot of games.  I use trends and line movements to make informed decisions, and look at things from a season-long perspective (as such, I don't "rate" plays, everything is one unit-- and I never chase).  For me, the goal is to be up a little or close to even for the season, and to have fun with the thrill of following the spreads and money and watching the game with money on the line.

Stay tuned for my ONE pick for Week 1 (I usually never bet Week 1, but in this case, I have a pretty good case to build).  Will be up soon.